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Celtic’s chances of winning the Scottish Premiership title have fallen following Wednesday night’s 2-2 draw with Dundee United, despite Rangers also dropping points against Hearts.
Martin O’Neill’s side had the opportunity to move six points clear at the top after Rangers were held to a 2-2 draw at Tynecastle.
Camilo Duran put Celtic ahead, but Zac Sapsford and Neil Farrugia scored twice in three minutes to give United a surprise lead.
Liam Scales rescued a point in the second half against a Dundee United side whose manager, Jim Goodwin, had been dealing with selection problems ahead of the Celtic Park clash.
The result has now affected Celtic’s title prospects according to the latest statistical predictions.
TalkingPoints
Celtic are held to a draw against Dundee United – what went wrong?
Football Meets Data has given Celtic a 64.1% chance of retaining the Premiership title, down 3.6 percentage points from 67.7%.
None of the 🏴 title contenders won this round. But still Rangers’ chances went slightly up as their draw with Hearts was closer to expectations than Celtic’s dropped 2 pts at home v Dundee Utd! 🏆 1st place probabilities: 64% 🏴 Celtic (-3.6%) 31% 🏴 Rangers (+3.3%) 4% 🏴 Hearts (+0.3%) …
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) October 28, 2026
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Rangers’ chances have increased by 3.3 percentage points to 31.3%, despite Derek McInnes’ side failing to beat Hearts.
Hearts have also gained slightly, moving up 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%.
The stats account said the Ibrox club’s draw with Hearts was “closer to expectations” than Celtic dropping two points at home to Dundee United.
Celtic were expected to beat Goodwin’s side, while Rangers faced a more difficult fixture at Tynecastle.
The predictions reflect those expectations rather than any change in the points gap between the two Glasgow clubs.
After 11 Premiership matches, Celtic sit top with 28 points. Rangers have 24, while Hearts are third on 20.
O’Neill’s side passed up a chance to increase their advantage on Wednesday, but the forecasts still give them more than twice Rangers’ probability of winning the championship.
The Hoops return to league action against Falkirk on Sunday, completing a demanding run of seven matches in 22 days.
A win there would put Celtic back on track following the Dundee United disappointment.
For all the movement in Football Meets Data’s predictions, O’Neill’s side remain in the strongest position after the opening 11 games.