As the NFL season progresses, Kalshi’s NFL market continues to push back Fernando Mendoza’s chances of starting. Mendoza has a 25% chance of not starting at all this season. He has a 63% chance of starting between weeks 11-14.

Kalshi offers this market in week spans where you’ll select which range of weeks you think Mendoza will start this season, if any. At his 63% price for starting in weeks 11-14, you’d profit $5.70. Kalshi then settles the market based on whether the official depth chart lists Mendoza as QB1 by those weeks.

When will Fernando Mendoza start his first game? - Kalshi

• Week 6 10%
• Week 7-8 13%
• Week 9-10 12%
• Week 11-14 63%
• Week 15-18 31%
• Does not start in the regular season 25%

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Opportunity slipping away?

Kirk Cousins has been a more than serviceable QB1 for the Las Vegas Raiders to start the season. Vegas opened the season 3-0 and are now 3-2. Across his first five games, Cousins has thrown for 1,269 yards, 12 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 64.6 QBR. Both his passing yards and touchdown totals are top-10 in the league thus far.

As a whole, this is a top-15 offense in the league, averaging 26.4 points and 335.6 total yards per game. With Cousins’ numbers leading a top-15 offense, the Raiders may opt to stick with the 15-year veteran.

A case for Mendoza

The biggest concern for the Raiders right now is that after getting off to a 3-0 start, they’ve lost two straight games, getting outscored 75-44. Per ESPN’s Ben Solak, Cousins could see one more start before Mendoza makes his first start. This comes as Cousins has played poorly against pressure this season and is not mobile.

“To quickly pivot from Cousins to Mendoza might feel like an early abandonment of a well-laid developmental plan. But I would argue that the pivot is justified,” Solak wrote. “The lack of mobility is a problem but not one that has totally hamstrung an otherwise solid passing attack–But it's hard to win those first three games ... then lose two ... and not wonder if the team is closer to contention than expected. And then not wonder whether Mendoza's timeline should be accelerated to match.”

Cousins could also be a valuable trade chip for the Raiders. The NFL trade deadline is the Monday of Week 10.

The Raiders next take the field in Week 6 at home against the Buffalo Bills.

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