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Fantasy Football Week 7 Fades & Busts: Time to accept the new reality with Patrick Mahomes

Welcome to the seventh of 17 weekly articles spotlighting the fantasy fades of the week! I am your host, Matt Okada, and I'll be bringing you half a dozen potential busts each and every Friday, from now until the fantasy championships.

As a note, just because a player earns a "fade" or "bust" designation doesn't automatically mean they should be benched — it depends on the rest of your roster or the options on your waiver wire. But you can expect them to fall short of expectations (when I get them right). I include a "What to Do" section for every player to help with that.

Without further ado, here is my list for Week 7 of the 2026 season.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs at Seahawks

It never feels particularly wise fading Patrick Mahomes ... he is Patrick Mahomes, after all. But as we saw last week, when he scored just 11.48 fantasy points against the Chargers, this is a different version of the quarterback and the offense in Kansas City. Even in a fifth straight win, he threw no touchdowns and one interception, while Kenneth Walker III ran for 128 yards and two scores. In fact, Mahomes hasn't scored higher than 17 fantasy points in any of the last three games, even in "greener" matchups with the Dolphins and Raiders. And if that's his ceiling, the overall outlook gets much more dicey against the Seahawks defense this Sunday night.

So far this year, Seattle is allowing league lows in passing yards per game (156.8), yards per pass attempt (5.2) and explosive pass rate (7.5%), and has snagged seven interceptions versus just eight touchdowns allowed. In particular, it's allowing the fewest yards after catch per game (81.7) ... and 62% of Mahomes' 2026 production has come on YAC, third-highest for any quarterback. A return from Rashee Rice (hamstring) could help mitigate some of the concerns, but that's looking less likely as the week proceeds without practice participation. All in all, the Chiefs QB is staring down the toughest matchup in fantasy: on the road at Lumen Field, with a banged-up receiving corps and a new penchant for leaning on the ground game.

Even if he manages a decent day past all those hurdles, the upside is limited.

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants at Texans

Last week's Cam Skattebo usage might have been one of the most frustrating things I've experienced in two decades of fantasy football. In what should have been a brilliant matchup, Skattebo was limited to six snaps and zero touches as head coach John Harbaugh was allegedly trying out the team's other running backs (but, despite his denial, seemed to pretty clearly be punishing Skattebo for his four fumbles through five games). I'm not actually sure which version of the truth would be more worrying for Skattebo, but either way, the "experiment" resulted in 2.4 yards per carry from the other three running backs, a close loss to the Saints and then the release of "starter" Najee Harris days later. This leaves us with basically zero evidence or confidence in how Harbaugh will manage this backfield in Week 7 against Houston (and beyond).

Could Skattebo get 15+ touches again, as he had in every game leading up to Week 6? Sure. Could he see a goose egg once again, as Harbaugh continues his experiment/punishment? Absolutely. The problem is that the latter possibility sets Skattebo's floor somewhere in the catacombs and the former possibility doesn't actually offer that much upside. Remember that, despite 15+ touches in every game, Skattebo had averaged just 9.3 fantasy points per game through Week 5, with a season high of just 14.1. And the Texans' run defense is arguably the toughest he's faced all season. And the Giants are starting J.J. McCarthy (for the first time), which is likely to change the look of the offense quite a bit. There are simply far too many unknowns and far too low a reasonable range of outcomes to start Skattebo this week.

Tony Pollard, RB, Titans vs. Browns

There's an old adage in fantasy football that "volume is king." And for the most part, that holds true. But sometimes, there are exceptions to the rule ... and Tony Pollard has been an exception this season. Yes, he's tied for 17th in running back touches. Yes, he has seen at least 14 touches in five straight games. However, despite that usage, Pollard is the RB38 in fantasy points per game, with just 7.88 in half-PPR. He's scored fewer than eight points in four of six games and his absolute ceiling has been just 12.0 points (which made him the RB24 in Week 4). There have been 44 different running backs to score more than 12 points at least once this season — a list that includes Kimani Vidal, Jonah Coleman and Roschon Johnson — and Pollard isn't one of them.

Among 40 running backs with at least 50 touches on the season, Pollard's 0.50 fantasy points per touch is dead last — just below Skattebo (0.51), for what it's worth. Now, he's entering a matchup with the Browns, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (14.23). He would almost certainly need a touchdown to crack double digits in this matchup, and he has just one of those all season playing in arguably the league's least threatening offense.

The name and the role are going to give Pollard the impression of a floor this weekend, but 10-15 incredibly inefficient touches isn't going to cut it in starting lineups.

Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals vs. Broncos

It's been an admittedly small sample size, but the dip in Michael Wilson's production without the "Marvin Harrison Jr. decoy" has been concerning. In the two games prior to MHJ's deactivation and eventual trade to Houston, Wilson caught 18 of 30 targets for 184 yards and a touchdown. In the two games since — both without Harrison — Wilson has caught just eight of 14 targets for 62 yards. And the first of those games was against the Lions, the most lucrative matchup in fantasy. He's dropped to just 0.9 yards per route run and 4.4 yards per target the last two weeks, and ranks fourth on the team in receiving yards, behind Kendrick Bourne and Elijah Higgins (and Trey McBride, of course).

Bourne's ascension is particularly worrying, as he's outpaced Wilson in target share, catch rate, yards per route run and nearly every other relevant metric these past two weeks. And while Wilson has still seen at least seven targets in every single game — a rare volume floor that keeps him in the starter conversation in almost any circumstance — a matchup with the Broncos throws further doubt on his fantasy upside in Week 7.

Even with Pat Surtain II sidelined in recent weeks, Denver has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts on the year, with the fifth-lowest catch rate and just three touchdowns. And Surtain is back at practice this week. While he looked like a borderline WR1 just a couple of weeks ago, Wilson is barely a borderline WR2 this weekend, and even if you're forced into starting him — as I am in a couple of leagues — be ready to lower expectations and fade him in DFS.

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions vs. Packers

I haven't included Jameson Williams in this column since Week 1, despite the fact that I enter nearly every week of the season worried that he'll be a bust. (Incidentally, he scored just 6.5 points in the opener.) And after two straight games with 13+ fantasy points, this might seem like an odd time to return to the well. But bear with me. Firstly, Williams caught just two passes on four targets in that last outing (against Arizona), and it so happened that both passes went for touchdowns, with one being a 39-yarder. In his previous two games with four targets (Weeks 2 and 3), he had fewer than 50 yards and fewer than seven fantasy points. Regressing touchdown luck to the mean, those are the fantasy outings we should expect from Williams more often than not, especially in middling or tough matchups. And Green Bay does appear to be a specifically tough matchup for Williams.

On downfield throws to wide receivers — passes of 10+ air yards — it's allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, second-lowest catch rate and second-lowest EPA/play this season. As a result, success against the Packers has typically required high volume. All seven wide receivers to score 8+ fantasy points in this matchup saw at least seven targets, and this defense has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per target to the position. None of this syncs well with Williams' playstyle or role in Detroit, and it all sets him up for another down performance this Sunday (even in a prospective track meet of a game).

Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Browns at Titans

Coming out of Week 4, it looked like Harold Fannin Jr. was building on his rookie campaign to secure his place as a TE1 in fantasy. He'd scored three touchdowns in Weeks 3 and 4 alone and was top 10 at the position in receptions through the first month. But it's been a rapid and significant backslide in the two games since. Fannin has caught just two passes for 13 yards on seven targets over that span, scoring fewer than two fantasy points in both outings. He's run 63 routes in those two contests — third on the team behind Denzel Boston and Jerry Jeudy — but earned a target on just 11% of those routes and averaged a pitiful 0.2 yards per route run. His 8.1% air yards share is fifth on the team and he hasn't had a single target on a play in the red zone these last two weeks.

Now, the cherry on top is the matchup with Tennessee. The Titans have allowed just 29.2 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, second-fewest in the league behind Seattle, and haven't surrendered 35 yards to a single tight end all year. More than ever, Fannin is going to be heavily touchdown-dependent in this game, and Cleveland has averaged the fewest red-zone drives per game in the entire NFL (2.2).

He's a talented player, but the context and the matchup do Fannin very few favors this week and make him an uninspiring play, even at a shallow position.

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