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Patriots-Packers preview: What happens if Drake Maye's deep ball is taken away?

Phil Perry breaks down the key matchups that will decide Sunday's game in Foxboro.

FOXBORO -- The Patriots got a shot of good news on Friday when tight end Hunter Henry was healthy enough to practice for the first time since suffering a foot injury in Miami.

Henry is officially questionable for Sunday's matchup against the Packers, and whether or not he's able to play could be the difference between winning and losing for the Patriots.

"I think he's been someone for me that I can count on since my first snap in there my rookie year," Drake Maye said of Henry. "He's been a security blanket and a great guy in the huddle, a great leader on this team. Anytime you lose a guy like Hunter -- a captain that does everything the right way, talks to the guys in the huddle, knows what I like, my body language, route running, does stuff in the run game -- it’s tough. But I know he'll do his best to get back out there as quick as he can."

Henry had to leave last week's win over the Dolphins in the second quarter with a foot issue. He rejoined his teammates after a trip to the locker room, but ultimately he was forced to call it for the remainder of the game. It was no coincidence, teammates told NBC Sports Boston, that their rhythm in the passing game was thrown off when Henry was initially removed from the equation.

He's a stabilizing force for Maye, and a chain-mover whose dependability makes him an indispensable piece in tight games. Against the Packers, if healthy enough to participate, he could be particularly important because of Green Bay's defensive approach.

In this week's preview, we get to just how effective the Packers have been at limiting what has been one of Maye's greatest strengths this season -- the deep ball -- and how the Patriots may be able to pull off their sixth win despite still missing their top-two wideouts A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs...

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Drake Maye vs. Jonathan Gannon

It's been a while since Maye competed against Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. That was back in 2024, Maye's rookie year, running an offense led by then-coordinator Alex Van Pelt.

There's not much that translates from that game -- a 30-17 loss in which Maye threw for 202 yards, one touchdown and one pick -- to this one, Maye explained on Wednesday. But he knows that Gannon's defense in Green Bay is a bear.

"They jump out on tape," Maye said. "I think they're physical. They're well-coached. They don't let up a lot of explosive plays. I think they're in the right spot. They've got veteran guys. They've got young guys playing well. They're good in the back end. They keep things in front. They mix up pressure looks. They're getting guys free to the quarterback. We've got a tough challenge."

Maye wasn't kidding when he said the Packers don't allow much in the way of explosive gains. They're third in the NFL in explosive play rate allowed (3.4 percent), behind only the Seahawks and Niners. Per NextGen Stats, Green Bay allows just 40.5 of downfield passes -- traveling 10 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage -- to be completed (fourth-best in the NFL), and they have a whopping seven interceptions on those types of throws (first). 

This is a battle of good-on-good in that Maye has completed 57.8 percent of his downfield throws (second) for 1,103 yards (third) and 10 touchdowns (third). Maye has been particularly good when isolating for his deepest throws traveling 20 yards or more down the field, with his 538 deep-passing yards ranking second in the league behind only Geno Smith. The Packers, however, have allowed just four deep completions all season.

If the Patriots get Mack Hollins back, they'll have a big-bodied outside-the-number option to target. But against a defense that limits the deep shot, this could be a short-to-intermediate kind of passing attack from the Patriots. And if they don't have their most reliable short-to-intermediate option in Hunter Henry -- or if he's in any way limited -- that could make an already challenging defensive scheme even more so. 

Matchup that will make your Sunday

Christian Gonzalez vs. Christian Watson

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images Christian Gonzalez
Sep 20, 2026; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (0) looks on prior to the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium.

While the Patriots passing offense against the Packers passing defense might be a matchup that favors the side trying to prevent points, the same could be true when looking at the Packers passing offense against the Patriots passing defense.

Start with the Christian Gonzalez versus Christian Watson battle. While Watson's size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) and speed (hit 21 mph on an 81-yard touchdown in Week 1) make him a handful, he has yet to show he can gash man coverage on a regular basis this season. Per NextGen, only 51 of Watson's 708 yards this season have come against man. His target rate (23.4 percent) and yards per route run (0.8) against man this year happen to be career lows.

Good news for the Patriots: They run the second-highest percentage of man coverage (35.8 percent), per Sumer Sports. And when they run man-to-man, they have the fourth-best quarterback rating allowed (72.1) and the eight-best EPA per play (-0.13), per Sports Info Solutions. 

When Gonzalez has been asked to man up this season, he's been excellent, shadowing DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson and Rome Odunze for 10 or more snaps each. Combined, in 42 total man coverage matchups, he's allowed just three catches on six targets for 29 yards.

One more reason this week's matchup may demand a man-heavy plan from Patriots defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr? Statistically, zone coverage has not treated the Patriots well this season. They've allowed a league-worst 71.7 percent of downfield throws to be completed. Meanwhile, Packers quarterback Jordan Love has the most downfield passing yards against zone this season with 1,071.

Matchup that will take years off your life

Patriots running game vs. Packers run defense

The Packers have found balance defensively, making them a Rubix Cube type of challenge for opposing quarterbacks. While they have been extremely effective at defending shot plays down the field, they also happen to be one of the best in football at bottling up opposing running games. 

That's not great news for a Patriots passing attack missing some of its top weapons and an offensive line that has seen a league-high 11 different combinations with at least 10 snaps together in 2026.

The Packers have the fifth-best stuff rate (stops at or behind the line of scrimmage) in the NFL at 20.2 percent, according to NextGen. They're also fourth-best in football at limiting yards before contact in the running game (0.63 yards on average), which could continue Sunday against the Patriots. Though Stevenson has had an excellent year in terms of creating yards on his own, he's averaged just 0.4 yards before contact per carry this season, which is 35th out of 42 qualifying backs.

Additionally, the Packers are particularly good at limiting yards on scrambles. Against those types of unscripted quarterback runs, which have helped Maye become one of the most efficient runners at his position in the league, the Packers allow a league-best -23 rush yards over expected, per NextGen.

Matchup that might surprise you

Patriots pass-rushers vs. Jordan Love

Winslow Townson/Getty Images

Winslow Townson/Getty Images Elijah Ponder
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 20: Elijah Ponder #91 of the New England Patriots celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium on September 20, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

The Packers sit at 5-3 and firmly in position to contend for a postseason berth, but they're doing so while sporting an offensive line that has been beset by injuries and struggled across situations.

Their running game is on pace to be historically inefficient -- their 485 yards rushing are the fewest by any team with a winning record through eight games in the Super Bowl era -- and only three quarterbacks have seen more pressured dropbacks than Love this season (123). 

Through seven games, Love faced the second highest quick-pressure rate (22.6 percent) in the NFL. That quick-pressure figure fell to 12.2 percent in Week 8 against the Panthers, but when under pressure this year, Love's accuracy has taken a hit; his completion percentage over expected in those situations is -3.0, which is 18th among qualifying passers.

The Patriots know they'll have to get to Love quickly. Because Green Bay's running game has been down, Love tends to throw short on early downs, which helps explain his league-best 2.58-second time-to-throw figure. But if the Patriots can dent Love's pocket with speed-to-power rushes that crowd him quickly, they could come up with a game-changing play or two.

PREDICTION: Packers 23, Patriots 20

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