The Oklahoma State Cowboys still need a win to be bowl eligible after their 51-49 loss to the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday.

The Cowboys (5-3, 3-2 in Big 12) are on the outside looking in when it comes to the Big 12 Championship game. “Tell the Truth” Monday is going to be filled with pain for a team that let a win slip away as the defense had its worst game of the year and wide receiver Wyatt Young made a very public mistake that led to an apology.

Here are the five things we learned from Saturday’s game. 

Reality Has Caught up to The Defense

Entering the season the defense didn’t have the “star power” of the offense. For nearly two months the defense got by on making timely plays, timely tackles and an offense that put up even bigger numbers than expected.

Their time ran out on Saturday. The mask came off.

The Cowboys gave up 581 total yards. Running back Aiden Flora ran over them for 221 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor looked like an all-Big 12 star as he threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns. Wide receiver Jamal Polite, who had done little to this point in the season, went off for six catches for 171 yards and a touchdown.

It wasn’t just execution. There were blown assignments and some embarrassing ones at that. This defense has been good at second-half adjustments. Not this time. While the special teams and a critical unsportsmanlike conduct penalty put the unit in bad spots, those might be forgivable if the unit didn’t give up 15 big plays in the game — and if four of those big plays didn’t lead to touchdowns.

My theory? Teams have enough film on OSU’s defense to know where to attack it. The Cowboys still don’t get enough pass rush and the secondary, aside from cornerback LaDainian Fields, is truly hit-or-miss. Defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity must recognize the shortcomings and devise a scheme moving forward that boosts the strengths and minimizes the weaknesses. He can’t keep using the same scheme now. The lack of depth has been exposed in a way every remaining opponent can use as a template.

Drew Mestemaker Isn’t Long for Oklahoma State

Getting Spooky in Ames 🎃

TOUCHDOWN COWBOYS

📺 @cfbonfox pic.twitter.com/DH4JX5CGmO

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) November 1, 2026

Before the game, ESPN’s Pete Thamel posted a story that polled 25 NFL personnel people about who would be the first quarterback taken in the 2027 NFL Draft. Of those 25, 17 selected Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker. Two months ago, none of them did.

That’s a huge jump in two months. Mestemaker, aside from the opener against Tulsa, has been fantastic. But the overall quarterback class has taken some lumps, too. Oregon’s Dante Moore is out for the season after a serious concussion. Texas prodigy Arch Manning has had his moments but has been inconsistent. Some of the bloom is off the rose that is Notre Dame’s CJ Carr.

After Saturday’s performance — in which he threw five touchdown passes for the first time this season — he’s thrown for 2,649 yards, 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He is on a pace that might allow him to surpass what he did at North Texas last season, which was an FBS-leading 4,379 yards with 32 touchdown passes.

I figure OSU has five games left. The Cowboys will win the game they need to get to bowl eligibility. Aside from the Tulsa game, defenses haven’t been able to mess with Mestemaker enough to damage his stock.

Now, does this mean he’ll be a first-round pick? There’s no guarantee. But the NFL is a quarterback-hungry league and the teams that will likely be in the Top 5 in the NFL Draft will be desperate for a quarterback (it’s part of the reason they’re there in the first place). The last time an NFL Draft went without a first-round quarterback was 1996.

There’s plenty of reason to believe that Mestemaker will be a one-and-done at OSU. If so, good for him. He’s had a great season to this point, and he will make OSU a popular spot in the transfer portal for an experienced quarterback.

Caleb Hawkins is a 2027 Heisman Trophy Contender

Log that run on Strava 💨

Caleb Hawkins goes 59 YD to the house

📺 @cfbonfox pic.twitter.com/x7UKN8B1bO

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 31, 2026

We could argue that Drew Mestemaker isn’t getting enough attention as a 2026 Heisman Trophy contender. Well, running back Caleb Hawkins is setting himself up as a 2027 Heisman Trophy contender.

His last three week have been incredible. But his game against Iowa State was his best of the three. He rushed for 194 yards and two touchdowns and caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown. That’s 275 yards in total offense and three scores. He has more than 650 yards in total offense in the last three games.

Those are the kinds of numbers that set up a Heisman Trophy campaign the following year. He now has 906 yards rushing and 353 yards receiving. He’s nearly passed last year’s pass receiving total with North Texas. Like Mestemaker, he’s pacing toward passing last year’s total offense numbers (1,804 yards).

Unlike Mestemaker, Hawkins can’t go to the NFL after the season. He’s only played two years of college football. He must come back in 2027. If this is how the Cowboys are going to use him next season, he’ll have a shot at college football’s most prestigious award.

Sam Keltner Is Human After All

If Sam Keltner and his family want to blame anyone for his consecutive field goal streak ending against Iowa State, they can blame Fox Sports’ Tim Brando. After all, Brando gave him the good old fashioned placekicker jinx leading us to Keltner’s miss in the first quarter.

It was so comical that even Brando gave Awful Announcing permission to come after him for jinxing Keltner by mentioning the streak before his first-half miss.

"Have your fun @awfulannouncing."@TimBrando with the announcer jinx on this field goal... pic.twitter.com/CLigLstxgj

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 31, 2026

The make would have broken the record. But it also would have given Oklahoma State a win. It was a two-point loss, after all. That field goal would have given OSU a one-point win. But it’s not fair to pin the loss on him.

Oklahoma State gave up a touchdown after failing to cover an onside kick. The Cowboys gave up a field goal after punt returner Bobby Deal Jr. muffed a punt. The Wyatt Young unsportsmanlike conduct penalty helped set up the game-winning field goal for ISU.

Keltner is still a prime candidate for the Groza Award. His first miss of the season was just ill-timed. He never got another shot on Saturday.

Joseph Hanson is an Unsung Dude

The Cowboys racked up 533 yards of total offense, scored 49 points with a quarterback that passed for more than 300 yards, a running back who racked up more than 250 yards of total offense and a wide receiver — Justin Bowick — who had 124 yards receiving and two scores.

They didn’t do all of that by themselves. The offensive line had a good night, and right guard Joseph Hanson distinguished himself.

The Coastal Carolina transfer hasn’t gotten much attention, but he might be the most consistent lineman on the unit. He finished the game with an 86.6 grade in pass blocking and a 74.5 grade in run blocking, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

What’s striking is how consistent he’s been, grade-wise. He’s had one pass blocking grade below 60 and one run blocking grade below 60 in seven games. His overall offensive grade hasn’t been below 60.7 in any game this season.

Tackles get more attention. Centers run the protections. Guards do the dirty work. Hanson has been excellent at it all season.