The Oklahoma State Cowboys are tied for third place in the Big 12 Conference standings. They have a sliver of a chance of reaching the Big 12 Championship game.

The loss to Iowa State really hurt. The Cowboys (6-3, 4-2 in Big 12) don’t control their own destiny. But there is a path, and as long as Oklahoma State keeps winning, that path remains alive.

I used bball.notnothing.net to game out the potential scenarios for Oklahoma State when it comes to the Big 12 race and the title game. With three weeks remaining, here are the three things the Cowboys must do or have happen to get to Arlington. As long as OSU keeps winning, I’ll keep updating.

Step 1: Win Out

There is no reasonable, or for that matter unreasonable, scenario in which the Cowboys can clinch a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game without winning their final three games.

Even if Oklahoma State were to beat Arizona State and Kansas to end the season, losing to Texas Tech would be a death knell for any hope they had of reaching the title game

So, to even have a shot at getting there, the Cowboys need to win their final three games and finish the regular season at 9-3 overall and 7-2 in the Big 12.

Step 2: Houston Must Lose Once

When it comes to the logjam of 4-2 teams in the standings, the only team that the Cowboys have played is Houston. Oklahoma State lost that contest 35-32 a few weeks ago. While there are any number of scenarios with multi-team tiebreakers that could work for and against the Cowboys, all of them work against OSU if Houston is among those two-loss teams.

If Oklahoma State has the same record as Houston, the Cowboys are toast. None of the tiebreakers work for them.

Step 3: Speaking of that 4-2 Logjam

Entering Week 11 five teams are 4-2 in league action — Oklahoma State, Houston, BYU, Baylor and Arizona. The easiest thing for OSU would be for all those teams to lose one more game while the Cowboys win out. We’ve already discussed why the Cowboys need Houston to lose.

But what about the rest of these two-loss teams?

Down the stretch, Baylor could be pivotal. The Bears play both BYU and Houston. If the Bears win those games and relegate them to three-loss teams, then that helps the Cowboys. Arizona faces Utah this weekend. If the Utes win the game, then the Wildcats drop to three losses and that helps the Cowboys.

But let’s be logical. One of BYU and Baylor will definitely lose. Let’s say OSU wins out, Houston loses once and the others win out. Here’s how it breaks down:

OSU, BYU, Arizona win, Baylor, Houston Loses once: BYU wins the tiebreaker as the No. 2 seed. BYU has head-to-head over Arizona, wins tiebreaker with OSU on record vs. common opponents.

OSU, Baylor, Arizona win, BYU, Houston Loses once: Baylor wins the tiebreaker as the No. 2 seed based on record against common opponents.

So, that won’t work. What if Baylor beats BYU, Houston beats Baylor, Houston loses once and Arizona wins out? Arizona gets the bid based on winning percentage against the ninth-place team in the conference standings, which is a common opponent. In this case, that’s Iowa State.

So, the Cowboys can’t win a multi-team tiebreaker — at least not right now. Can they win a two-team tiebreaker with any of those teams?

Arizona? Based on projected standings tiebreakers, no.

BYU? Based on projected standings tiebreakers, no.

Baylor? Based on projected standings tiebreakers, no.

Houston? Based on head-to-head, no.

So, as of right now, the Cowboys have a narrow path to the Big 12 title game. They need to win out and have the current two-loss teams lose at least one game.

It isn’t a great path. But it’s a path and as long as OSU keeps winning, the path is there. And, if OSU wins and some crazy things happen in Week 11, perhaps the path gets better.