We're at an interesting point in the Major League Baseball calendar in which rumors and speculation run wild, but moves don't tend to actually get done.

In a typical offseason, you wouldn't typically see any major deal get done until December, but the looming labor problems in the league could expedite things this offseason. Regardless of when moves begin, speculation and rumors have already gotten loud for the Boston Red Sox. Especially when it comes to big bats. For example, ESPN's Paul Hembekides joined Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney and predicted that three-time All-Star Randy Arozarena will join Boston on a nine-figure deal.

"I've got him going to the Boston Red Sox," Hembekides said. "[Four years] for $104 million is my number. I think you'll see Jarren Duran traded. I think his defensive shortcomings will be covered up by the fact that it's such a small left field and they know they need one more bat, especially a right-handed bat. I've got Randy to Boston."

Boston Should Steer Clear

Arguably, this is the type of move that would sound really good in the short-term, but carries significant risk.

There's no denying the fact that Arozarena's bat would help Boston's lineup. But we've made the case that the ultimate price tag could be bad news for Boston.

The Red Sox are a team that should be able to afford one of the largest payrolls in the game, but Arozarena is an imperfect fit for the organization from a positional standpoint. Hembekides made the case that Arozarena's defensive shortcomings would be hidden in Boston because of the small left field at Fenway Park. But it's important to note that if Arozarena is out in left field, then that means you're either using your franchise pillar in Roman Anthony as a designated hitter at just 22 years old, or you're trading either Ceddanne Rafaela or Wilyer Abreu away. Plus, of course, Jarren Duran. If Arozarena were to be signed as a designated hitter, arguably that would be a lot of money to spend when there are other areas to improve as well.

Arozarena is a great player. There have certainly been a lot of connections between Boston and the slugger already. From a strictly offensive standpoint, he makes sense. But he's an imperfect roster fit. In 2026 and 2025, he was great. But he's also a player who is just two years removed from batting .219 in 154 games with the Tampa Bay Rays and Mariners in 2024. What version would Boston get? This type of contract projection is arguably too high to not fully know the answer.

Boston has two big contracts that it would be great if it could get out of in Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida. Adding Arozarena on a nine-figure deal in which positionally he wouldn't fit right now would be the recipe for another long contract to potentially regret down the line.

If the price is perfect, or Boston trades outfielders away, this conversation would shift. But right now, arguably the fit isn't perfect.