The Jacksonville Jaguars are running away with the AFC South this year, in part due to one of the AFC’s best defenses. For the second season in a row, the Jags are the hardest team in the NFL to run the ball against. No team in the AFC is allowing fewer points per game. The Jaguars are 10th in total defense, lead the AFC with 15 takeaways and are one of four defenses averaging double-digit fantasy points per game.

Jacksonville general manager James Gladstone looked at those numbers and said, “eff those picks.”

The Jaguars didn’t wait for Tuesday’s trade deadline to get better. They were the trade activity Monday, spending big-time draft capital to bring in veteran safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackle Jordan Davis—the latter of which cost them next-year’s first-round pick.

The Jaguars are all-in on a Super Bowl run this year. Bates is a significant upgrade at deep safety, while Davis should make the NFL’s best run defense that much more impenetrable. And a defense that was already one of the AFC’s best got that much better.

Not bad for a defense that was sitting on the waiver in as many fantasy leagues as not back in the long-ago days of Week 1.

THE NO-DOUBTERS

Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee Titans)

What? You thought the love-fest was over? Well just like a full-length infomercial, there’s more if you order today! This week the Jaguars travel to face a Tennessee Titans offense that is, um, not good. Only the Philadelphia Eagles are averaging less yards per game this season than the Titans. Tennessee’s 18 points per game is the fifth-fewest in the league. And the Titans are tied for sixth in the league in giveaways. That new-look defense is going to roll in Week 10.

Seattle Seahawks (at Las Vegas Raiders)

It has been a bumpy season for the Seahawks, but the defense has largely held up their end of the deal in 2026—the Seahawks lead the NFL in total defense, rank second against the pass, fourth against the run, fifth in points allowed and seventh among all defenses in fantasy points. A 3-0 start from the Raiders has turned into five losses in their last six games, largely because there just isn’t anything that offense does especially well. Over the last three weeks, the Raiders have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points per game to defenses.

Kansas City Chiefs (at Atlanta Falcons)

This year’s Chiefs defense looks a lot like most Chiefs defenses under Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo. There are a couple big names. A secondary patched together with young players and veteran cast-offs. And all-in-all, a solid unit that ranks eighth in total defense, third in scoring defense and inside the top-10 in fantasy points. Bijan Robinson is a monster at running back, and the Atlanta Falcons have talent on offense. But they also lead the NFC in giveaways and have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to defenses this year.

Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals)

So, um, Myles Garrett is back. Garrett played his second game as a Ram last week and spent most of it in the Commanders backfield, dropping Jayden Daniels three times and forcing a fumble. There are still questions on the Rams defense. But Garrett is back. Aaron Donald is looking more and more like Aaron Donald as he works himself into game shape. And this week the Rams face a Cardinals team with no wide receivers led by a rookie quarterback making his first career start.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Jordan Love’s admittedly gonzo passing numbers are the talk of Titletown right now. But a Packers defense that has no Micah Parsons and is short their top-two linebackers is fantasy football’s second-highest scoring defense since Week 4. Safety Evan Williams has played like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Despite Parsons’ absence, the Packers are sitting in a tie for fourth in sacks and rank second in takeaways. And this week the Pack hosts a Minnesota Vikings team that was garbage on offense in Buffalo in Week 9.

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati Bengals)

It’s understandable that some fantasy managers could have some trepidation about this play, especially if you have watched Joe Burrow making his case as the mid-season MVP over the past month. But the Bengals can’t run the ball with any consistency, and the Steelers are seventh in total defense, fourth in points allowed and third among all defenses in fantasy points. Pittsburgh is also tied for third in sacks with 26, and the key to slowing Burrow down is to get him off his spot.

STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)

The offensive issues in Baltimore (one more starting quarterback and they get a free sandwich) have gotten all the run, but the Ravens have had some defensive issues this season, including just 17 sacks as a team. But the Chargers are a get-right spot for any defense that has 11 players, and this is no exception. The Bolts have well and truly fallen apart. The offensive line is non-existent, allowing eight sacks last week. Justin Herbert looks—broken. And no team is allowing more fantasy points per game to defenses in 2026.

Houston Texans (at Cleveland Browns)

Last week was a make-or-break one from a fantasy perspective for a Texans defense that has mostly disappointed this year, and while there were some lapses once the game got out of hand Houston came through with eight sacks and a pair of takeaways in a win over the Chargers. It’s that pass rush (and arguably the NFL’s best edge-rusher duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter) that’s especially appealing against a Browns team that has given up a whopping 38 sacks in nine games.

New York Giants (vs. Washington Commanders)

The Giants have to be the most surprising first-place team in the NFL. Rookie linebacker Arvell Reese has been a revelation in the Big Apple—the Defensive Rookie of the Year front-runner leads Big Blue in both total tackles (68) and sacks (4.5) after last week’s rampage against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants have quietly risen all the way to fifth in fantasy points among defenses, and somehow this team just keeps finding a way through. They will again on Thursday and continue their surprising run.

Buffalo Bills (at New York Jets)

For much of the season, the Bills have won more in spite of their defense than because of it. But Monday night against the Vikings, that defense showed up in a big way, forcing three turnovers, logging a pair of sacks and allowing just six points. This play carries risk with Buffalo on the road off a big win against a Jets team that has shown flashes offensively. But over the past month, Gang Green has been gangrenous, surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points per game.

CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS

Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers)

To be clear, the Vikings didn’t play poorly last week against the Buffalo Bills, allowing 23 points, taking the ball away once and dropping Josh Allen four times. And the Packers are not going to be able to run the ball on the Vikings the way James Cook and the Bills did. They just won’t. But last week Green Bay walked into Gillette Stadium and absolutely boatraced the New England Patriots through the air, and the Packers sit outside the top-20 in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses.