Retour
This article is a part of Verducci’s View, a weekly baseball newsletter from Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci. Every Monday, Tom empties out his notebook over email and covers MLB’s hottest topics, provides in-depth analysis through both text and video breakdowns, looks forward to what’s worth watching during the week and more.
Home runs had been the coin of the realm in postseason baseball. The previous six World Series champions all finished among the top four in most regular season home runs. The Brewers redefined what wins in October. Last in the NL in home runs, and 28th overall, Milwaukee rode a game built on speed, contact and opposite field hitting to the title.
As Milwaukee first baseman Jake Bauers said about teams still playing the launch angle game, “It doesn’t win any more. It may work once in a while. But it’s not something that’s sustainable consistently with the way pitching is today. And when you rely on that kind of hitting, and it’s not working, you have nothing. No other way to win a game.”
Now let’s flip the coin and look at postseason baseball from the pitching perspective. We just witnessed a postseason with a record high in fastball velocity (96.1, up from 93.6 in just 10 years) and the lowest slug in the 19 seasons of pitch tracking (.336).
The rate of at-bats per home run in the postseason slowed by 35% from last year to its lowest level in 12 years:
Slugging absolutely cratered this postseason to a level we had not seen in the pitch tracking era.
Why was it so hard to slug this postseason? Pitching is that good. The biggest causes of the lack of slug are:
The bottom line: pitching is too good to think you are going to win just with home runs. Remember, too, the Brewers buzzed through the postseason with 13 games and 18 days off. Manager Pat Murphy could keep using his high-leverage relievers with the best stuff because his team dispatched the Padres and Dodgers in four games each, earning recharging rest in between.
Overall, this postseason teams played more games without a homer (39) and won more games without a homer (12) than in any of the past 12 postseasons. Milwaukee led the way in this low-slug environment. The Brewers went 5–0 in games in which they did not homer. Thanks to expanded playoffs, they are the first team to go 5–0 in homerless postseason games, surpassing the 1907 Cubs (4–0) and 1922 Giants (4–0).
In his 12th year managing the Rays, Kevin Cash showed adaptability with his personnel, as did GM Erik Neander and the front office in building the team. Typically at the head of the curve, the Rays saw pitching changing and knew offense would need to change, too. Tampa Bay morphed into a small-ball, contact heavy, risk-taking team, a methodology their analytics-heavy approach deemphasized in the past.
In 11 previous years under Cash, Tampa Bay had never been in the top half of major league teams in contact rate. Suddenly, this season they led MLB.
Rays Contact Rate Under Cash
Year |
Contact% |
Rank |
|---|---|---|
2015 |
75.3% |
25 |
2016 |
72.5% |
30 |
2017 |
71.7% |
30 |
2018 |
74.2% |
21 |
2019 |
73.4% |
20 |
2020 |
70.0% |
29 |
2021 |
71.7% |
29 |
2022 |
73.4% |
23 |
2023 |
72.4% |
24 |
2024 |
72.1% |
26 |
2025 |
74.3% |
18 |
2026 |
79.3% |
1 |
Coming off a career-best season, Brandon Lowe is one of the more fascinating values on the free agent market. With Pittsburgh, in the manner of Jeff Kent, Lowe provided corner-type power at second base (35 homers, 96 RBI, career bests) while improving defensively and taking the most plate appearances of his career (656). It was a huge platform season. He might be the best left-handed bat available.
But there is the age question as it relates to length of contract. As the game gets younger, buying the mid-30s years of a player, particularly in the middle infield, gets riskier. Lowe will play next season at 32. (He turns 33 in July).
Over the past eight seasons, only seven qualified middle infielders age 33 and older posted an OPS+ greater than 99. That’s less than half as many as did so in each of the three eight-season windows before this trend. The fall-off this year included the likes of Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jake Cronenworth, Jeff McNeil and Trea Turner (all 32–35 with an OPS+ of 90 or lower).
2019–26 |
7 |
2011–18 |
15 |
2003–10 |
16 |
1995–2002 |