With four games remaining in the season, the goals have shifted just a bit for the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Last week, there was a path to remaining in the Big 12 Championship game race. Now, after their 51-49 loss to the Iowa State Cyclones, the Cowboys (5-3, 3-2 in Big 12) would need a chaotic final month — and four straight wins — just to have a chance to get there.

So, OSU heads to Kansas State (4-4, 1-4) looking to win their sixth game of the season and clinch a bowl berth for the first time since 2023.

The setting would be fitting. Back in 2024, the Cowboys went to Manhattan as a ranked team and were blown out by the Wildcats, a loss that started a two-year spiral that resulted in the firing of Mike Gundy and the hiring of Eric Morris. Oklahoma State wants a happier trip home after this one.

Here are my four bold predictions for the game, including the final score.

Caleb Hawkins Rushes for 200 Yards or More

75 YARDS. WHAT A RUN.

Caleb Hawkins takes it to the house for @CowboyFB pic.twitter.com/0GgFcm8n5I

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 1, 2026

Oklahoma State running back Caleb Hawkins has put up some huge numbers the past three games. He has more than 600 yards of total offense and he put up nearly 300 yards worth against Iowa State last Saturday. But he hasn't cleared the 200-yard threshold on the ground yet. This could be the week.

He came really close against Iowa State as he rushed for 194 yards. In fact, he's rushed for progressively more yards each of the last three games. Oklahoma State is using him more in the passing game, but this week the matchup they can exploit is against Kansas State’s run defense. The Wildcats are ranked No. 103 in the country and give up 166.1 yards per game.

Given that K-State has the No. 7 pass defense in the country and will pay as much attention to quarterback Drew Mestemaker as possible, this shapes up to be the week where Hawkins truly breaks free.

The stars are lining up for a huge game. Hawkins rushing for 225 yards out of the question.

OSU Defense Will Hold K-State Under 400 Yards

That doesn't sound like much. But Kansas State is averaging 426.6 yards per game, which is ranked No. 34 in the country. The reason the Wildcats are so hard to stop is because their offense is so balanced. They averaged 205 yards on the ground and 221 yards through the air. It means defenses can't sell out to stopping one part of Kansas State’s attack. They must find a balanced approach defensively.

It's hard to imagine Oklahoma State’s defense being as bad as it was last weekend. The unit gave up nearly 600 total yards and 51 points to Iowa State. But holding Kansas State under 400 yards sounds challenging —and it will be. Blake Barnett will start at quarterback and while he's a name not many fans know he put up a nice game against Colorado, posting nearly 300 total yards of offense.

Defensive coordinator Skyler Cassidy and Morris are going to challenge this unit this week. When this unit is challenged after a loss, it tends to step up.

OSU’s Defense Will Force Three Turnovers

That hasn't happened much this season. The Cowboys did it two weeks ago against Colorado, when the Buffaloes fell apart in the second half. They fumbled away a possession and Cowboys cornerback LaDainian Fields picked off two passes. This hasn't been a high producing unit when it comes to creating turnovers and it's had a negative turnover margin all season.

Many coaches have told me that the hardest game for a new quarterback to win isn't the first game they play after replacing a starter but the second. The reason? Now a defensive coordinator has tape on that quarterback. The Cowboys have a full game of tape on K-State quarterback Blake Barnett and can scheme him better than Colorado could facing him cold.

Barnett did a really good job protecting the football against the Buffaloes as he threw three touchdown passes. But he was also sacked three times. That’s why it's imperative for the Cowboys to get a consistent pass rush on Barnett. That's their pathway to creating the turnovers that they need to help them win this game.

Score Prediction

Oklahoma State 41, Kansas State 31

The Oklahoma State Cowboys can score points. The real question is whether the defense can slow the Wildcats down enough to win the game? The unit couldn’t do that against Iowa State last weekend, which was heartbreaking considering that the Cowboys scored 49 points.

The temptation is to think this will be an easier game without Avery Johnson at quarterback for the Wildcats. With Blake Barnett starting, it will be a different type of offense. But he proved he could give K-State something offensively last week against Colorado, racking up nearly 300 yards in total offense. What will the Cowboys offense do with that tape? How will they slow him down?

I’m not sure, but I think the Cowboys will slow the Wildcats down enough to win and claim that sixth win to go to a bowl game in 2026. Expect OSU to turn the ball over a couple of times, giving the Wildcats a short field at least once, leading to the higher score.