No NBA team can win the championship in autumn, but the fall is as good a time of year as any to see who looks ready to rise and who’s seeming to slip.

For the New York Knicks, the opening months of the past two seasons point to how important it is for them to get off to a strong start —and why that may be more difficult than ever.

Potential championship hangover

On May 29, 1953, Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay became the first people ever known to reach the top of Mount Everest. History is silent on what the pair were up to a week later, though it’s fair to guess what they weren’t doing: climbing it again.   

It’s human nature to push past your limits in pursuit of something exceptional or rare or life-changing. It’s just as natural to lose your motivation to do it again, especially right afterward. There are a lot of reasons no NBA team has repeated as champs since 2018, but even before the rules of the league were aimed squarely against teams going back-to-back, it was a long shot.

The Knicks didn’t just win the most mythical title any team’s won since at least the 2016 Cavaliers. They did so in the most astonishing way they could, mixing 40- and 50-point blowouts, historic fourth-quarter comebacks, a 12-game playoff winning streak and taking their last nine postseason contests away from home. They returned to NYC as conquering heroes. If any group deserved to bask in glory, soaking up every single drop of adoration, truly they were them.

But it won’t help them any in 2026-27, at least in the early going. A third of the league harbors title hopes; those teams have been thirsting to start the climb for months. The new lottery rules incentivize trying to win games fans are charged full price for, meaning sides that for years have been “NBA teams” in name only—hello, Washington! We see you, Utah!—will no longer be content to lose all the time. The top of the league is hungry and the bottom should be better-fed.

The smallest roster shift will be a huge adjustment for both parties

Last season, the Knicks played 19 playoff games. Until last season, Andre Drummond had played 17. Ever.

It’s not Drummond’s fault last year was the first time he ever played past the first round. That fact does, however, speak to the 33-year-old taking a quantum leap in expectations. Though he’s a backup making the veteran’s minimum, there’s probably more professional pressure on Drummond than since his early years in Detroit, if not ever. 

He’s pretty much the only proven depth at center behind Towns, one of the most indispensable Knicks. Drummond’s also replacing Mitchell Robinson, one of their most important and popular players. In the 2026 regular season, KAT and Mitch played 278 minutes together with a +2.9 rating; in the playoffs, it was 27 minutes and +15.6. Even for Drummond, who wears a size 19, those are big shoes to fill.

The Knicks’ early season is hurly burly

On top of the lottery changes giving the have-nots a reason to try harder, the Knicks are the defending champions. Every team has them marked on their calendar. A lot of teams do, even when the Knicks are bad, but now it is on. Nobody wants to be the latest team to have their home arena sound like Madison Square Garden.   

And while nobody wins the title in autumn, the past few years, this time of year has been a sneak preview of how the rest would turn out. In the first 10 games of 2025, New York lost to Boston, Cleveland and Indiana—the two teams that finished ahead of them in the East and were a combined 8-0 against them in the regular season and the one that ended their season.

Last year, the Knicks opened with wins in their first two games over the Celtics and Cavs, the first sign that 2026 was a different neighborhood. They finished last season 9-2 against the pair, including sweeping the Cavaliers in the conference finals. So what do the tea leaves look like this season, based on the early schedule?

In a word: rough. The first 14 games include two each against the 76ers (high hopes, seeking vengeance) and Cavs (same), two in three days at the Raptors (high hopes for the first time in nearly a decade), away games versus the Celtics (high hopes, something to prove) and Pacers (high hopes, something to prove),c and a visit from the Pistons (high hopes for the first time in 20 years).

If the Knicks get off to a slow start, fans can comfort themselves knowing the time of year that matters most is still six months away. If the Knicks get off to a hot start? The 2018 Warriors might stop being a trivia answer.