For many Mets fans, determining whether this offseason will be a success comes down to one question: Did they acquire Tarik Skubal?

After missing the playoffs for the second consecutive year, the Mets need a player who can not only improve their chances of winning now but for years to come. And while Skubal's market has yet to fully develop, his list of potential suitors already appears to be narrowing.

According to a recent report from Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, the Chicago Cubs "appear unlikely to enter a bidding war" for Skubal.

Chicago had emerged as a popular landing spot for the two-time Cy Young Award winner, particularly after ESPN's Jeff Passan reported last week that the Cubs wanted him "badly".

With Chicago seemingly off the board, it feels like a foregone conclusion that another high-stakes showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Mets will unfold this offseason.

Skubal sweepstakes could become a two-team race ahead of GM meetings

Since Steve Cohen purchased the Mets in 2020, New York has frequently competed with the Dodgers for some of the biggest names on the free-agent market.

Among the marquee players both teams have pursued in recent years are Juan Soto, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kyle Tucker, and Edwin Diaz.

Obviously, a quick look at the list shows that the Dodgers have gotten the better of the Mets more often than not.

This offseason's pursuit of Skubal, however, presents a different set of circumstances than previous free-agent battles.

With an MLB lockout looming on December 1, many expect the coveted ace to sign before then. That would give both teams considerably less time than in a typical offseason to meet with Skubal and make their respective pitches.

The first major opportunity to begin laying the groundwork for negotiations could come Tuesday at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas.

While the event is primarily meant for executives from all 30 teams to meet and discuss league business, it's also a time for agents to sit down with clubs and discuss their free-agent clients.

Skubal is represented by renowned agent Scott Boras and his corporation. Boras represents many of the game's biggest stars, and he seems to get every penny's worth and more for his clients.

As a two-time Cy Young Award winner entering his age-30 season next year, Skubal is widely expected to surpass Yamamoto's record $325 million contract, the largest ever given to a starting pitcher.

For David Stearns and Andrew Friedman, who are set to attend this week's meetings, sitting down with Boras to discuss Skubal could be one of the few opportunities to meet face-to-face before the lockout.

The Winter Meetings, traditionally a time when offseason activity begins to accelerate, are scheduled to begin on December 7. But the lockout would prevent the usual negotiations and transactions from taking place.

For the Mets and Dodgers, this battle for Skubal could be a clash unlike any of their previous encounters, given the unusual circumstances surrounding this offseason. Every move each team makes will carry more weight, with less time to rebound and recover.

If the Mets are indeed intent on doing whatever it takes to acquire Skubal, then they must learn from their past failures against Los Angeles and ensure history doesn't repeat itself.