The Baseball Writers Association of America awards week begins Monday night with the announcements of the Rookies of the Year.

The American League finalists are Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle, Cleveland Guardians left-hander Parker Messick and Boston Red Sox right-hander Payton Tolle. New York Mets right fielder Carson Benge, Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart and St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt are the National League finalists.

AL Rookie of the Year: Position player or pitcher?

AL Rookie of the Year could come down to a referendum of position player or pitcher, as McGonigle and Messick both have outstanding seasons that included berths in the All-Star Game.

McGonigle hit .278/.376/.430 with 18 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 156 games. Messick went 12-9, posted a 2.56 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in 32 starts, and struck out 193 batters over 186.1 innings.

However, what tips the vote in McGonigle’s favor is that he led the AL with 7.1 bWAR while playing a premium. The left-handed hitter was just 21 when he made his MLB debut on opening day and went 4 for 5 with two doubles in a victory over the Padres in San Diego. Additionally, McGonigle’s 707 plate appearances topped the AL.

Messick, who had 6.3 bWAR, would win the award in many seasons, as he was a workhorse for the Guardians, who won their third consecutive AL Central title. Messick pitched the most innings in a season by a rookie since Sandy Alcantara logged 197.1 for the 2019 Miami Marlins.

The heavy workload appeared to take its toll in the postseason when Messick allowed nine runs in 13.1 innings over four starts. However, voting is held before the playoffs begin.

Tolle helped the Red Sox reach the postseason, going 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts in 148.2 innings over 26 starts. Yet he figures to finish a distant third in the voting.

Predicted order of finish: McGonigle, Messick, Tolle

NL Rookie of the Year: Counting stats or modern metrics?

Meanwhile, NL Rookie of the Year could come down to a referendum on counting statistics or advanced metrics. Stewart compiled strong traditional numbers, while Benge and Wetherholt scored much better in bWAR.

Stewart hit 32 home runs and drove in 112 runs while playing in all 162 games and slashing .263/.330/.457 with 15 stolen bases. However, Stewart’s bWAR was just 2.0, and he had minus-3 defensive runs saved.

Conversely, Wetherholt had 4.5 bWAR and 12 DRS, and Benge finished at 4.3 and 7.

Benge, though, seems likely to get more votes than Wetherholt after hitting .282/.346/.430 with 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 156 games. Wetherholt batted .242/.339/.365 with 17 homers and 14 steals in 139 games.

Recency bias could help Benge, as he had an .844 OPS after the All-Star break while Wetherholt had a .608 mark in the second half. Stewart had only one home run and six RBIs in 24 games in September.

Baseball writing is continually becoming a younger man’s game, and BBWAA voters are leaning a little more sabermetrically every year. However, a 30-homer, 100-RBI season for a rookie is still hard to ignore, and that's why Stewart will edge Benge in the balloting.Still, a 30-homer, 100-RBI season for a rookie is hard to ignore, which is

Predicted order of finish: Stewart, Benge, Wetherholt