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With the amount of chaos we've seen across the sport this season, at least one three-loss team will get into the College Football Playoff. There will be plenty of them making their pitch at the end of the regular season, but which one actually has the best shot to reach the 12-team field?
Ohio State, Oregon, LSU and Ole Miss all began the season with playoff expectations. A few of them had legitimate national championship aspirations. As it stands, they all have three losses with three games remaining. According to our own projections at CBS Sports, all of them have at least a 10% chance of making the College Football Playoff, but their margin for error is gone.
In the case of the Buckeyes, they have a relatively easy finish to the season, but the loss of star quarterback Julian Sayin will make winning all those games tough. On the other end of that spectrum is LSU, which boasts an elite roster but faces two top-10 teams over the next two weeks.
As we inch closer to the final 12-team field being revealed, let's take our best shot at identifying which three-loss team will be in the mix.
For the time being, I'm operating under the assumption that Julian Sayin will not return in the regular season. Because of that, it's hard to trust Ohio State in any of these games, even though they're all winnable. Expect that road game against Nebraska to be the toughest test because it will be the Huskers' best chance to beat the Buckeyes in quite a while, and that stadium should be rocking.
With the Ohio State offense sputtering, the defense broke against Oregon. Was that a one-game situation, or do the Buckeyes suddenly have big problems on both sides of the ball? Maybe Luke Fahey settles in and guides Ohio State to a 3-0 finish, but I'm not willing to bet on that after what's transpired the last two weeks.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Georgia takes top spot, rival SEC team joins top four
John Talty
This is a team that's suddenly gotten its swagger back. With the chaos around Oregon in the Big Ten, the door remains cracked for a College Football Playoff berth. The talent is there to make a run, but can Oregon avoid another misstep between now and the end of the regular season? This team has already done its share of underachieving this fall.
The most encouraging aspect of Saturday's win over Ohio State was how well the passing game performed under new play caller Jay Johnson. Dylan Raiola looked comfortable in a hostile environment, and if the Ducks can replicate that in other games, they have the weapons to put up some points. The Michigan defense will be a tough test, but Michigan State and Washington likely won't provide too much resistance.
This is the most talented three-loss team in the country, although that probably isn't much consolation for the people who forked over millions of dollars to build the roster. That said, the Tigers still control their own destiny, even if a couple of College Football Playoff contenders stand between them and that destiny.
LSU is fully capable of beating Texas and Tennessee, which would seal its spot in the playoff barring a shocking collapse against Arkansas. But how reliable have the Tigers been in those situations? LSU has lost its two biggest games of the season up to this point, and it's done so by making critical mistakes in key moments. With the pressure at its highest, the Tigers will have to find ways to finish in two monumental games, one of which will be in a hostile environment.
There's a reason Ole Miss has the toughest path to the playoff of any team on this list. Even if the Rebels run the table, they may have as many humiliating losses as impressive wins. Unfortunately for Ole Miss, it doesn't have any resume-building opportunities left with Oklahoma and Mississippi State left to come.
The most likely outcome for the Rebels is a 3-0 finish, but that alone won't be enough. Ole Miss needs chaos to ensue. Three-loss teams need to become four-loss teams, and two-loss teams need to become three-loss teams. There's just too much that needs to go right for the Rebels in order for them to be safely in the playoff field.
Louisville's been on the wrong side of multiple close games this season, with three losses by a combined nine points, including backbreaking losses to Ole Miss and Wake Forest that hurt both their CFP at-large case and their ACC championship hopes.
Nearly all of Louisville's CFP path comes from the 2.4% chance of winning the ACC, as ACC carnage looks possible through the rest of the schedule. Remember what happened last year when a 5-loss Duke won the conference championship. There is an absolute logjam of ACC teams with 2 losses in conference play. Currently, Louisville, SMU (which Louisville beat), Duke, and Clemson all have 2 losses in league play. Wake Forest plays SMU on Saturday, and the Deacons could pick up their second loss in that one. The ACC reorients its tiebreakers to protect the league and avoid another Duke situation, but watch the ACC closely coming down the stretch.
South Carolina's minuscule chances rest on a 2.2% chance of being a large team. That would come from beating Georgia as the main hump to get over, which the forecast currently shows has a 30% chance of happening.
Even with a close loss to Mississippi State in its best form, it's hard to ignore the blowout against Ole Miss or a two-score loss against Texas. Our forecast gives a 14% chance of the Tigers beating Georgia on Saturday. The low likelihood of that means Missouri's extremely faint CFP hopes may be extinguished within days.
Every team on this list is loaded with talent, but the odds are stacked against them in the battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff. LSU would be the most dangerous team if it makes it into the field, but the Tigers have a steep hill to climb in the final three weeks. Ultimately, Oregon's combination of talent and a favorable remaining schedule gives it the best shot of making the playoff. If the Ducks win out, they'll have road wins over USC and Ohio State with two-point losses to UCLA and Oklahoma State. Never mind the fact that -- with a little help -- they might be playing for a Big Ten Championship too. Pick -- Oregon
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