There might not be a better encapsulation of the topsy-turvy nature of the NFL than the fact that the Los Angeles Rams own two fewer wins than a Cleveland Browns squad most expected to be in contention for the top pick in the 2027 draft. The Rams are an utter disappointment through six games and will fall well short of delivering on their title of preseason Super Bowl favorites if they do not turn their season around in the next few weeks.

With the Rams out of the top tier of contenders for now, the door is open for someone else to take command of the championship race. Perhaps the Chicago Bears can be that team now that Caleb Williams is healthy and is back to leading a seemingly uncontainable offense.

The season is a month and a half old, so early-season noise is beginning to clear up. The real Super Bowl threats are emerging from the rest.

Here is how the championship race shapes up heading into Week 7.

Super Bowl odds entering Week 7

Odds via DraftKings, +2000 or better

• 49ers: +540
• Chiefs: +750
• Bills: +750
• Ravens: +1000
• Seahawks: +1200
• Rams: +1200
• Jaguars: +1300
• Bears: +1500
• Patriots: +1800
• Vikings: +1800
• Broncos: +2000

Stock up: Caleb Williams puts Bears back in contention

Going 2-1 without Caleb Williams manning the offense was crucial for the Bears. Avoiding a dreaded early-season slump kept all of their goals intact and left them primed to compete at the top of the crowded NFC North upon his return. The Week 5 drubbing against the rival Green Bay Packers amplified the need for Williams to get back into the lineup, though, and he delivered an emphatic response to that embarrassing loss upon his reinsertion into the offense with a monster individual performance in a 31-23 win on the road over the Atlanta Falcons.

It was the Bears' highest-scoring game since Week 1, which showed just how much Williams elevates this team. He completed his first 12 passes against a Falcons defense that has been surprisingly competitive this season en route to the sixth 300-yard effort of his career. His +12.4% completion percentage over expected was his second-best mark to date, and the 83.3% total completion rate was both a career high and the best by any Bears quarterback with at least 30 pass attempts in franchise history. The hamstring seems just fine.

This looks like a breakout season in the making for Williams. All he needs to do is stay on the field. So long as he is available, Chicago seems likely to boast a top-tier offense.

Stock down: Rams devolve from disappointing to disaster

The season-opening loss in Australia was chalked up as a travel-related fluke. The defeat in Denver was a hard-fought battle between two playoff hopefuls. The shootout loss to the Buffalo Bills was a high-variance game against perhaps the best team in the NFL. At face value, each of those results was understandable. Frustrating, yes. But understandable. Then came the stunner in Week 6. Dropping a home game to the Arizona Cardinals completely recontextualized all of the previous losses. If the Rams are capable of losing to that kind of team, then maybe they just are not that good after all.

The most concerning part of this 2-4 start is that there are more reasons for worry than there is room for optimism. Sure, the schedule ahead is far more manageable than what the Rams faced in the season's first month and a half. But dropping a game to the Cardinals means that Sean McVay's crew is capable of losing to practically anyone else it sees during the softer part of its slate. The injury situation makes it all the more likely that the Rams suffer another devastating loss, too, because without Davante Adams, Poona Ford and Kobie Turner (who all landed on injured reserve this week), the floor just got a whole lot lower.

Special teams remains a complete disaster; the defense is solid, but clearly misses Myles Garrett, and Matthew Stafford's decline from his 2025 MVP form handicaps the offense. The Rams need to stack wins in the next four weeks against the Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders and Cardinals in order to dig themselves out of last place in the NFC West. If they do not, they might legitimately be in danger of missing the postseason entirely.

Long shot of the week: Browns (+20000)

The Super Bowl is quite clearly a stretch for the Browns, but should they really hold the sixth-longest odds to win it? They are far more likely to reach the playoffs than some of the other teams in this range, considering they lead the AFC North through six weeks (for the first time since 2014, no less). That 2014 squad ended up at 7-9 and finished last in the division, so if history is any indication, then it makes sense as to why the market is still so low on this team. But at the same time, there are reasons to believe their 4-2 start is for real.

For one, they continue to play excellent defense in the post-Myles Garrett era. Cleveland ranks in a tie for seventh in points allowed per game with second-year star Carson Schwesinger leading the charge. And on the other side of the ball, Deshaun Watson remains above water while his rookie wide receiver tandem of Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion has the makings of a long-term dynamic duo. In his first year as coach, Todd Monken keeps getting the most out of all those pieces and more.

The "Who have they beaten?" argument is fair given the lack of elite opponents and Lamar Jackson's absence for the Baltimore Ravens last week, but three of the four victories came against teams with winning records. The Browns can only play the teams on their schedule, and there are not many daunting challenges on the road ahead, so the wins might just keep piling up. The playoffs are within reach if this train keeps rolling at its current pace.

Week 7 games to watch

Chiefs at Seahawks

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC, stream on Fubo

When the Seattle Seahawks line up across from the Kansas City Chiefs on "Sunday Night Football," will they be wishing Kenneth Walker III was still on their side instead of the other? These teams are trending in opposite directions, and their trajectory changes coincide exactly with the Seahawks declining to re-sign Walker and instead watching him land in Kansas City. Zach Charbonnet could make his season debut for Seattle this week, which ought to be a boon to an offense that desperately needs an infusion of rushing ability.

Bengals at Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS, stream on Paramount+

If Lamar Jackson cannot play with his ankle injury, the Ravens will be in danger of dropping their second consecutive divisional game. This is a prime opportunity for the Cincinnati Bengals to leap past their rivals, especially since they had an extra week to prepare. Every game is critical in a division where three teams stand at 4-2 and the Bengals are only a half game back of the logjam at 3-2.

Patriots at Bears

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video

Week 7 opens with a gem. Williams vs. Drake Maye is a spectacular showdown between two elite young quarterbacks who are presently playing their best football of the season. This intra-conference clash provides an excellent opportunity for a couple of Super Bowl hopefuls to see where they stack up against playoff-caliber competition. Chicago might hold an edge due to the injuries on New England's offensive line and at wide receiver, but Maye is back in the kind of form that could be good enough to will the Patriots to a few touchdowns regardless of his supporting cast. The Patriots scored at least 26 points in each of their last three games and likely need to keep that streak alive to keep up with Ben Johnson's high-octane unit.