Forty-five minutes to the off. How has Antonelli built that lead? Well, as our graph shows, he burst out of the traps, overtaking George Russell with his second consecutive victory in Japan in race three and only briefly looking as if he could be hauled back. Russell won in Austria, with Antonelli third, then second at Silverstone, with the Italian out of the points. But the 20-year-old was soon back in command.

Newsflash: Kimi Antonelli is going to win the world drivers’ championship. Oddsflash: he is unlikely to do so this weekend.

You probably know the maths roughly, so here it is exactly. With six races left, Antonelli leads George Russell by 102 points and Lewis Hamilton by 111, and if he leads everyone by at least 125 after Sunday then that will be that. He would be guaranteed to have had more race wins should he go pointless for the rest of the campaign while a rival swept the board and levelled the points up.

But to stand a chance of reaching that 125-point advantage, he has to win in Austin. He then needs Russell to get no more than the two points for ninth place, and Hamilton to get no more than the 10 points for fifth place. No one seems to be offering odds on Antonelli pulling it off, but Russell is a 1-9 shot to be in the top 10, and 1-3 to be in the top six; somewhere between those two lie the odds on him making the top eight, while Hamilton – 1-7 to make the top six, 8-5 for top three – looks to be a shade of odds-on for fourth.

Antonelli himself is only second favourite for the race, behind Max Verstappen, and that status is questionable: Antonelli has not stood on the top step in the past three races. The Dutchman has won two GPs in a row, as well.

But if we knew what was going to happen we wouldn’t be watching. Never underestimate Russell’s 2026 susceptibility to misfortune, for instance.

So, join me from what is 3.15pm in Austin and 4.15pm eastern time – and 9.15pm in the UK, for Guardian sport’s last BST blog of 2026 – for the buildup to qualifying, which starts on the hour.

In the meantime, Giles Richards has been looking at the make-up of the (fairly) soon-to-be champion:

double quotation mark At the heart of this engaging character it seems is a grounded and emotionally rich relationship with his family. While he was supported in following his racing dreams, he was told unequivocally that if he was to kart on a weekend, school must follow on a Monday until he graduated. He duly did so, completing his maturità school exams just after coming third – his first podium – at the Canadian GP last year.

“Which driver has done the A-levels or the baccalaureate? Name me one that has finished school. No one,” Wolff observed pointedly of his prodigy. The role of his family has clearly been crucial. His father as guide, mentor and, both have admitted, stern taskmaster at times, whom Antonelli has described as his “rock”. But there is also clearly a hugely important relationship with his mother, Veronica, and younger sister Maggie.

Have a read of the full profile as you wait …