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MLB Free Agents 2026-27: Who signs first? Sonny Gray, Jake Bauers could be among quickest to ink deals

The last time an MLB lockout reared its ugly head, it at least resulted in the most exciting November free agency period in recent memory, with six of the winter’s top 10 free agents -- Corey Seager, Max Scherzer, Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Javier Báez and Kevin Gausman -- all signing big contracts in a span of just three days at the end of the month.

Whether we’ll see a similar run this year isn’t yet obvious, but MLB seemed to clear the way for it by pushing back to 2028 its plan for a salary cap in its latest proposal to the Players Association. The big spenders can do their usual thing this winter without having to worry about a true ceiling next year. Let’s take gander at a few of the free agents who might come off the board early this time around.

All ages as of Apr. 1, 2027.

Sonny Gray (37, SP, Red Sox)

2026 stats: 18-5, 2.72 ERA, 149/46 K/BB in 169 innings

Gray briefly considered retirement after a disappointing end to his very impressive season in Boston, so unlike most of the better starters available this winter, he’s not going to be haggling over just how long he wants his next contract to be. He’ll have his pick of two-year offers if that’s what he wants, or he might prefer just to go year to year at this point. Gray’s strikeout rate did fall considerably last season (30 percent in 2024, 27 percent in 2025, 22 percent in 2026) and his velocity has also declined slightly three years running, but those aren’t quite as big of concerns while talking about a short-term deal.

Best fits: Braves, White Sox, Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers

Carson Kelly (32, C, Cubs)

2026 stats: .258/.336/.376, 10 HR, 58 RBI in 425 plate appearances

Catchers have a history of coming off the board early, and this year there are only three legitimate starters available in Kelly, Ryan Jeffers and Tyler Stephenson. Jeffers will almost certainly get the biggest contract of the trio, but Kelly, as the best defender of the group, will probably be in the most demand initially. He’d be a stellar alternative for a team with a left-handed-hitting starting catcher like the Yankees or White Sox, but he’s also plenty good enough to be a 90-game starter for teams with more questionable catching situations.

Best fits: Yankees, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, Pirates

Raisel Iglesias (37, RP, Braves)

2026 stats: 34 saves, 2.55 ERA, 64/17 K/BB in 60 innings

After Josh Naylor did his deal to stay in Seattle, Iglesias was the second significant free agent off the board last year, quickly taking a one-year, $16 million deal to stay with the Braves instead of holding out for two-year offers. He also made $16 million annually the previous three years as part of a four-year contract he originally signed with the Angels, so he seems to know his worth. Iglesias’s velocity last season was down about one mph from 2024 and two mph from his peak, and he’s definitely a slightly weaker bet now than he was a year ago. Still, he’s been extremely reliable, and it will only make him more popular that the two relievers this winter that were clearly ahead of him (David Bednar and Adrian Morejon) both received qualifying offers and will require draft pick compensation.

Best fits: Braves, Cubs, Giants, Tigers, Royals

Jake Bauers (31, 1B, Brewers)

2026 stats: .266/.389/.484, 28 HR, 86 RBI in 578 plate appearances

Three of the eight free agents saddled with qualifying offers this winter will have to give it significant thought. Two are the aforementioned Bednar and Morejon, and the third is Bauers, who busted out at age 30 and would seem to be in strong position to land his first multiyear contract. Alas, because the qualifying offer works against him, he might be better off taking $23.15 million from the Brewers and seeing if he can run it back. That’s not such a bad thing, given that it’s nearly three times as much as he’s earned to date as a major leaguer. Plus, winning the World Series seems fun. Still, if he’d prefer security, he might be able to command a three-year deal at an annual salary closer to $15 million-$18 million. Ideally, he needs to figure that out soon before the Nov. 17 deadline to accept the qualifying offer.

Best fits: Brewers, Padres, Blue Jays, Rangers, Twins

Tarik Skubal (30, SP, Dodgers)

2026 stats: 12-7, 2.72 ERA, 186/27 K/BB in 158 2/3 innings

Normally, one wouldn’t project the winter’s No. 1 free agent to be an early signing. Skubal, though, would seem to have ample incentive to get a deal done before a new Collective Bargaining Agreement rewrites the rules some. Even if Skubal’s contract wouldn’t be immediately affected by a salary cap or any rules put in place to establish a maximum salary and length of deal for top free agents, the league’s current big spenders might feel this is their last chance to make a splash before restrictions beyond a luxury tax are put in place. Skubal is in line for the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. There are only so many teams that are candidates to give it to him, and it’ll probably be easier for them to make it happen in November than whenever the lockout ends.

Best fits: Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Cardinals

Ian Happ (32, OF, Cubs)

2026 stats: .218/.326/.412, 24 HR, 68 RBI in 636 plate appearances

Happ doesn’t necessarily need to sign quickly; he could choose to hold off until Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki come to terms and hope for a nice bid from a team that missed out. However, it doesn’t really seem likely that the big spenders will come calling for Happ at this stage of his career. His strikeout rate took a big jump to 30 percent last season, and although he’s a switch-hitter, he typically found himself out of the lineup against lefties at the end of the year. Happ will still fit nicely on a more modest contender as a durable, plus defender in left who can hit in the top half of the order against righties.

Best fits: Orioles, Astros, Rangers, Cubs, Padres

Tyler Mahle (32, SP, Braves)

2026 stats: 7-10, 3.99 ERA, 137/46 K/BB in 149 innings

Mahle definitely seems like someone who should strike while the iron is hot and hopefully before teams start to question the 1.99 ERA he had in nine starts after the Giants sent him to Atlanta at the deadline and the 1.35 ERA he amassed in stellar outings against the Phillies and the Dodgers in the postseason. Mahle also excelled for the Rangers when healthy in 2025, finishing with a 2.18 ERA in 16 starts, but given his injury history and modest strikeout rate, teams were skeptical enough that he had to settle for a one-year, $10 million deal in San Francisco. Mahle’s strikeout rate did improve from 19 percent in 2025 to 22 percent last season, but given that his 27 starts were his second most in a 10-year career and he’s qualified for the ERA title just once, a particularly long-term deal remains unlikely.

Best fits: Braves, Padres, Cubs, Astros, Orioles

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