Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s name is part of every discussion regarding Cal’s disappointing 2026 season.

He was expected to lead Cal to new heights this season under new head coach Tosh Lupoi after his outstanding freshman season in 2025 offered so much promise, leading to projections that he would be a first-round pick in the 2028 NFL draft.

It hasn’t happened.  For whatever reason he has not been as productive as a sophomore as he was as a freshman, and the team, which is 3-6, has not been as successful this season as it was last year, when it went 7-5 in the regular season before losing its bowl game.

It leads to the obvious question: Will Sagapolutele be back at Cal in 2027?

“Oh, I believe he can come back,” Cal general manager Ron Rivera said, “and again we’ll see what happens. I don’t want to put words in anybody’s mouth. The biggest thing that’s important right now is what’s going on these next three weeks.”

That is a lot different from the Rivera’s response to the same question at this time a year ago, when he expressed enthusiastic confidence that Sagapolutele would stay at Cal for 2026 based on the package Cal had put together for him.

Last week’s report by The Athletic on Cal’s struggles stated that it’s “unlikely” Sagapolutele will be at Cal next season.

Sagapolutele finished the 2025 season ranked third in the ACC in passing yards per game (265.7) and fifth in touchdown passes (18). This season he is 10th in the conference in passing yards per game (218.9) and 11th in TD passes (11, in eight games with three games remaining). 

However, what is interesting is that his passer rating, generally the best indicator of a quarterback’s effectiveness, is a little better this year (132.34) than it was last year (131.61).

You can count the many reasons that Sagapolutele’s numbers have been disappointing this season, starting with the ineffectiveness of the offensive line and the lack of a running game.  Cal ranks 137th of 138 FBS teams in rushing yards per game, and a quarterback working without a running threat is at a major disadvantage.  However, those were the same shortcomings the Bears experienced last season.

The two significant differences are the defense, which was better in 2025 than it is this season, and the coaching staff.

Rivera and Lupoi offered their assessments of Sagapolutele’s 2026 season.

Rivera: “I think Jaron has had his moments. I think a big part of it is you’d like to see more consistent moments. And I think part of it has been the development of not just him but the players around him, and again, these next three games are important as far as judging him and being able to make a decision on certain aspects of what we’re doing.”

Lupoi: “Just highlighting how capable he is, that’s my goal. That’s what’s really been encouraging, exciting, with some solutions from a holistic and an entirety of our offense, all three phases, but when Jaron’s out there leading the offense, seeing him rip it the last two weeks, hopefully that’s going to be demonstrated game day, but I’m just about developing, growing, and all of us. So putting him, our offense in the best position. And it starts with me, ensuring that we do that. There’s certain things he’s done an excellent job at, trying to highlight those things over and over.”

The pivotal moment came in the seventh game of this season when Sagapolutele was essentially benched.

He was unavailable the previous week because of a concussion suffered against UNLV.  But he was available for the seventh game, against Wake Forest, yet Lupoi chose to start Jackson Brouseau, a transfer from Colorado State who had a solid game in the previous week’s upset of Virginia Tech. Sagapolutele eventually entered the game in second-half, mop-up duty in a 41-7 loss.

Sagapolutele has been professional though it all, but the decision to start Brousseau spoke volumes.

It’s not unprecedented for a quarterback who had an outstanding freshman season to slip back a bit as a sophomore.

One case is particularly relevant here.

Jayden Daniels had an outstanding season as an Arizona State freshman in 2019, but his performance slipped noticeably in his second full season in 2021 (after the four-game 2020 season).  After throwing 17 touchdown passes with two interceptions in 2019, Daniels threw the same number of TD passes as interceptions (10) in 2021. Many Sun Devil fans were calling for him to be benched.

Daniels opted to transfer to LSU after the 2021 season. He put up solid numbers in 2022, then he threw 40 touchdown passes while winning the Heisman Trophy in 2023. He was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, and became the Washington Commanders’ starting quarterback as a rookie.

And, of course, there is the story of Fernando Mendoza, who went from being a solid quarterback at Cal to becoming a Heisman Trophy winner at Indiana and the No. 1 overall NFL draft pick in 2026.

Sagapolutele could make the judgment that a new team with a new coaching staff and a new surrounding cast could make that kind of difference for him. Of course, that assumes some elite programs are still convinced that Sagapolutele can make a significant impact.

The Bears’ last three games – this Saturday at Virginia (4-5), next week at home against Stanford (4-5) and the finale against Pitt (6-3) in Berkeley – might provide an important chapter to the Sagapolutele story.