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3 Key Matchup Will Decide Jets’ Week 8 Outcome vs. Raiders

The battles Gang Green must win to pick up the victory on Sunday.

Jets QB Geno Smith is involved in one of the three biggest matchups that will decide Sunday's outcome. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After another disappointing loss last week, the Jets will look to get back into the win column when they take on the Raiders in Week 8. 

The last time these two franchises met was in 2023, when Las Vegas defeated New York 16-12. For head coach Aaron Glenn, getting a win against the Raiders is critical. Heading into this matchup with a 5-19 record, a victory against Las Vegas, which enters this matchup on a four-game losing streak, could ease the pressure on his hot seat

There will also be eyes on quarterback Geno Smith, who’s faced criticism over the past few weeks for his play, as he faces his former team.

To turn things around, New York will need to win these three key battles. 

1. Jets’ secondary vs. Raiders TE Brock Bowers

The Raiders have one of the league's best passing attacks, ranking fourth in passing yards per game (269), largely thanks to tight end Brock Bowers. Despite missing the first two games, the former Georgia Bulldog leads the team in targets (50), with 34 receptions for 455 yards and three touchdowns. 

Since joining Las Vegas in 2024, Bowers has been the team’s best playmaker and go-to pass-catcher. But under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak, he’s utilized Bowers more as a receiver than a tight end, and it’s helped him find greater success. 

In his first two seasons, Bowers played 39% and 42.6% of his snaps inline, whereas he’s lined there just 14.9% this season, per Pro Football Focus. Lining him up on the perimeter has given Bowers more one-on-one opportunities, allowing him to exploit linebackers and safeties with slants, posts, and crossing routes.

With more opportunities to move the chains on the outside, Bowers is averaging a career-high 13.4 yards per reception. 

The Jets must guard Brock Bowers as best they can this weekend. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Jets won’t stop Bowers, as Kubiak will find ways to get him involved. But if New York is to have a sliver of a chance, its defense must limit his impact by tightening up the middle. 

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, 33.7% of Bowers’s routes have been vertical, ranking second among tight ends with at least 100 routes. Quarterback Kirk Cousins ideally likes to target Bowers on underneath crossers and slants, but he’s also looked to him downfield for explosive plays.  

New York’s secondary has struggled against tight ends over the past two weeks, allowing four catches for 48 yards and a touchdown to Patriots TE Hunter Henry and five receptions for 86 yards to Dolphins TE Greg Dulcich. 

With the Jets running man coverage at the eighth-highest rate, per Sharp Football Analysis, Glenn must consider mixing in more zone coverage and pressing Bowers at the line of scrimmage. Disrupting his release could throw off his timing and prevent him from getting an opening, while zone coverage would make it harder for Cousins to target him downfield. 

Against zone coverage, the Raiders have used Bowers more on short option routes, out routes, and screen plays to get the ball in his hands and let him create yards after the catch. While these adjustments won’t eliminate Bowers from the game, they could make it more difficult for him to generate explosive plays. 

If New York allows Bowers to exploit them in one-on-one matchups, don’t be surprised if he has a big game. 

2. Jets QB Geno Smith vs. Raiders’ secondary

Geno Smith has been one of the more efficient quarterbacks this season. Through seven games, the 14-year veteran has completed 70% of his passes for 1,623 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions. 

For the most part, Smith has played well and kept the ball out of harm’s way; however, he’s played too conservatively. Smith hasn’t been nearly as aggressive as he was with the Seahawks, attempting just 17 passes of 20 yards or more, and has often settled for easy checkdowns instead of pushing the ball downfield. 

He’s also made occasional poor decisions, such as holding the ball too long in the pocket and taking sacks. We can’t entirely blame Smith for this, as the Jets’ receivers have struggled consistently to create separation. 

All of his struggles aren't his fault, but Geno Smith must perform better if the Jets are going to beat the Raiders in Week 8. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

But if New York is to get back into the win column, then Smith must target Las Vegas’ secondary. The unit was instrumental in the team’s 3-0 start but has remarkably declined over the past four weeks. 

During this stretch, the Raiders have allowed 11 passing touchdowns, 252.5 passing yards per game, and a 69% completion rate. According to Next Gen Stats, the Raiders have increased their man coverage rate to 32.1% of passing plays, but have yielded a 54.5% success rate against man. 

With Las Vegas struggling to contain opposing passing attacks, Smith must take advantage by pushing the ball downfield and attacking one-on-one matchups, as he’s averaging 9.4 yards per attempt and has thrown six touchdowns against man coverage this season. 

That means targeting star receiver Garrett Wilson more, especially as he’s grown increasingly frustrated with his lack of targets over the past two weeks. We saw in Week 3 against the Lions how effective the connection can be against a weak secondary. 

Smith connected with Wilson on 10 passes (13 targets) for 107 yards and a touchdown. While protecting the football remains critical, Smith cannot be overly protective. 

Week 3 and last week against Miami showed that the Jets are at their best when they stretch the field and attack downfield. Generating enough offense against a struggling Raiders’ secondary will be crucial if New York hopes to come away with a win. 

3. Jets’ run defense vs. Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty

This matchup got increasingly more interesting when Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty said that they can "definitely get the run going" against the Jets.

Well, he’s not wrong. After giving up just 131 rushing yards in the first two games, New York has allowed 763 rushing yards over its last five games and ranks 24th against the run this season, allowing 127.7 rushing yards per game.  

In this five-game stretch, the Jets are 1-4, and in all four of their losses, the defense has given up over 100 rushing yards. Until New York improves its play at the line of scrimmage, opposing teams will continue to prioritize the run against them. 

For Jeanty, of all people, to express confidence in the team’s ability to run against the Jets speaks volumes about how vulnerable the unit has become. 

The Jets' defensive line can't afford to let Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty run wild in Week 8. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Since posting 102 rushing yards in the season opener, the former sixth overall pick has struggled to get anything going on the ground. In the last six games, he’s managed just 226 rushing yards, two rushes of 10 yards or more, and an abysmal 2.7 yards per carry. 

Jeanty’s not entirely to blame for the Raiders’ struggles on the ground, as the offensive line hasn’t consistently created open running lanes. Another factor is that Kubiak has primarily used  Jeanty to run inside the tackles, while he defers to backup running back Mike Washington Jr. for outside runs. 

Given these predictable tendencies, the Jets must prioritize winning at the line of scrimmage and getting to Jeanty early. New York has struggled with missed tackles this season, with linebackers Demario Davis and Jamien Sherwood combining for 17, and must prevent Jeanty from reaching the second level. 

Although Jeanty hasn’t reached the second level much this season, he can exploit the Jets with his home-run ability. If the Jets can close the running lanes and make Jeanty indecisive in the backfield, they could force Las Vegas to be one-dimensional and depend on Cousins to move the ball downfield. 

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