This is the weekend of the college football season that everybody has been looking forward to since long before it began. Sure, a couple of the Big Games we expected aren't quite as big as anticipated over the summer, but others have emerged to take their place. There is no shortage of Big Games on the docket.

Which makes it a little more difficult to determine the "Games of the Week" for this column. So before you start yelling at me for leaving your team's "Big Game" out of it, let me explain my process. In a typical week, there usually aren't more than three that would qualify. My usual tie-breaker in those scenarios is the rankings. The games with the highest-ranked teams get in.

This week it's a bit different. You see, the way this column usually works is I break down the big games to the best of my ability, and then the other four games in the column are the games I feel best about from a betting perspective. This week I chose the two "big games" I feel best about from a gambling perspective.

So, no, this isn't about disrespecting your conference or your brand. The Holy War between Utah and BYU, and Georgia vs. Ole Miss are top-10 matchups, but I'm not including them because I don't feel strongly about any aspect of those games from a betting perspective. But the top-15 game between LSU and the Alabama team damn near everybody thinks is overrated? Oh yeah, I've got strong thoughts on that one, so it made the cut!

Anyway, let's get to it.

Games of the Week

No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame: The announcement that Miami WR Malachi Toney suffered an ankle injury that will keep him out a while certainly turned this game on its head a few days before kickoff, but while it changed the direction I originally planned to go, it did not change my reasoning much.

Clearly, Miami's offensive ceiling drops without Toney in the lineup. He is a game-changing talent that Miami will have a very difficult time replacing, but it's not just the offense that will struggle. Miami's defense has been struggling for a while now, and this injury might make things worse.

After allowing an average of 9.8 points per game in their first five, Miami's defense comes into this one having allowed 93 points in its last three games, and it's not like it was playing a murderer's row of great offenses in Florida State, Pittsburgh and North Carolina. None of them rank higher than 47th in points per possession, and North Carolina is the only one of the three that ranks in the top 65 in success rate (it's 31st). There's no excuse for Miami to be allowing as many big plays and touchdowns to those teams as it has.

And now that defense may be facing the prospect of being on the field a lot more. One of the benefits of having a great offense is it tends to give your defense plenty of rest. That's been the case with this Canes outfit, as Miami ranks fifth nationally in time of possession at 33:40 per game. Its average of 5.96 plays per drive ranks 33rd. The absence of Toney could prevent the Canes from being able to sustain the kind of clock-churning drives they've had all season.

Well, if their defense has struggled keeping teams out of the end zone lately while only playing 61.13 snaps per game (30th fewest), what might things look like if they're out there more often?

After all, this Notre Dame offense isn't exactly awful. It ranks third nationally in points per drive, fourth in success rate and has scored on 59.0% of its possessions (also third). While it struggled against BYU, that was on the road. Odds are things will be a bit different at home. The Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 31.5 (-104) at FanDuel

No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU: Like most of you, I was surprised to see Alabama ranked as high as it is. I believe the ranking is a bigger indictment of the committee's process of putting teams in pods rather than looking at everybody as a whole, but whatever. There are a lot of games left, and Alabama will either win and earn that spot, or it won't, and everything will take care of itself.

I'm leaning more toward the "it won't" side of things this weekend. Trust me, I'm a bit concerned about this one because I've been burned by LSU multiple times this season, but I don't like this matchup for the Tide. Keelon Russell looked good against Texas A&M last week, but the thing about Texas A&M is it stinks! Russell didn't look nearly as good in the losses to Georgia and Tennessee, and this is a very good LSU defense, particularly at home in this environment.

The primary concern here is that Alabama's offense ranks 105th in pressure rate allowed. Now, a lot of that falls on Russell. He extends plays, and he does it in the good way. It's not that he's indecisive or panicking; it's that he can buy time with movement in the pocket and avoid the rush. But LSU's defense is sixth nationally in pressure rate and second in sack rate. This isn't the kind of pass rush you want to mess with, and we saw this be a problem for Bama when Russell was sacked nine times between the Georgia and Tennessee games. It put the offense in bad spots, and they couldn't overcome them often enough.

The one thing that would help Alabama's case is if LSU turns the ball over, and we all know Sam Leavitt has that in his bag. But -- But! -- Sam's done a much better job taking care of the football in recent weeks. The return of Trey'Dez Green and emergence of Jackson Harris have helped quite a bit in this department, and Alabama's defense has given up a lot of explosive plays in the passing game this year. The Pick: LSU -5.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Lock of the Week

Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan's 28-21 win at Rutgers last week was not impressive, but the final score was a bit misleading. Michigan missed two field goals in the game, and had they made them, the game probably would have gone in a different direction. After all, the short field after the first missed kick immediately led to a Rutgers field goal. Those special teams issues could haunt us here, too, but another aspect of the game last week was that after a slow start, the Michigan defense shut down Rutgers for most of the second half, and new starting QB Tommy Carr looked much more comfortable running the offense.

Now the Wolverines return home to face a Michigan State team that's running out of gas. The Spartans have lost six straight and have been dealing with a ton of injuries on defense. I'm sure the bye week helped, and you know Pat Fitzgerald is taking this rivalry game very seriously, but I just don't think the Spartans have the horses to keep this one close. Maybe it's iffy early, but it likely won't be late. The Pick: Michigan -13.5 (-106) at FanDuel

Fade of the Week

Cincinnati at No. 17 Houston: Football is a physical game that takes its toll on everybody playing it as the season goes along, and this is one of those times when Houston is catching Cincinnati at an absolutely perfect time. Houston had last week off to help it get over and recover from a tough 21-13 loss at Utah. Cincinnati didn't have that luxury. The Bearcats got their butts kicked by that same Utah team 49-25 last week. This was a week after their upset win over Texas Tech.

Those are two very difficult opponents to play in consecutive weeks, and to then have to follow them up with a road trip to Houston to face another one of the Big 12's better teams is asking a lot of these Bearcats. Maybe they shock the world again, or maybe they run out of gas. I'm predicting the latter. The Pick: Houston -10.5 (-112) at DraftKings

Principle Play of the Week

Texas State at Oregon State: You don't see nearly as many totals in the 70s these days as compared to years past, but it's not difficult to understand why this total is set so high. Oregon State is averaging 40.1 points per game, tying them with LSU for 7th in the country. Texas State isn't far behind at 38.1 points per game, which ranks 13th. And neither defense is all that good at stopping their opponents from scoring, either! In fact, the 32.0 points per game Texas State allows ranks 124th. Oregon State's rank of 71st (25.0) seems damn near stout in comparison.

So why am I betting the under? Is it because I'm an idiot? Well, sure, that's probably part of it, but it's not all of it. No, it's that Oregon State's offense has begun to slow down a bit in recent games and struggled against Fresno State last week. My theory is that there's enough tape out there on what they do now that opponents are at least better equipped to slow the Beavers down, even if they can't stop them. Also, Texas State's offense has been much better at home than on the road, scoring 1.67 fewer points per possession away from home. Finally, the weather could be a cherry on top. The forecast for the game, as I write this, calls for a high chance of rain and strong winds, with gusts up to 35mph. Granted, it's hard to rely on a weather forecast this far out from game time, but even if it's 55 without a cloud in the sky and light wind, I still think this total is too high. The Pick: Under 72.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Upset of the Week

No. 23 Oregon at No. 12 Ohio State: Two things can be true at the same time. Oregon can be one of the 2026 season's biggest disappointments, yet it's playing much better right now than it had been. Don't get me wrong, I don't believe firing the offensive coordinator magically fixes this team's issues, but it's hard to deny the Ducks looked much more cohesive on offense against Northwestern last week. The plan and attack made a lot more sense than what we'd seen in earlier games.

Then there's Ohio State. While Buckeyes fans have been blaming everybody for last week's loss, my opinion is that the biggest problem they had was being forced to give a true freshman QB his first start on the road. Luke Fahey wasn't terrible, but he wasn't good enough to win the game. There's certainly room for improvement this week, and we may see it. After all, it's far easier to play at home than on the road when you lack experience. But this Oregon defense has played much better as of late, and while the Ducks are down to their backup QB, Dylan Raiola's far more experienced than Fahey. I don't think this line gives Oregon enough credit, and there's a much greater chance the Ducks pull off this upset than the number suggests. The Pick: Oregon (+245)