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The Las Vegas Raiders are off to a pleasant start in the Kirk Cousins era. They have three wins and three losses, ranking 7th in Passing Yards and 6th in Points. As good as it is compared to seasons past, a normalization may bring the Raiders back to earth. They face the LA Rams this Sunday, and after the Raiders’ strong offensive start, I expect regression, especially for one recently hot player, Tre Tucker.
Tucker is averaging 5.8 targets, 4.0 receptions, 61.8 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He has a 74% snap rate on passing plays. Overall, Tucker's target share comes to 17%, tied for second-best on the team.
The Raiders have spread the ball around. Four pass-catchers average more than five targets per game, and each accounts for more than 16% of the team's targets. Those names are Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Tucker, and Michael Mayer.
Tucker's fantasy football season has been volatile. Combining Weeks 2 and 6, Tucker has 7.0 targets, 5.0 receptions, 98.0 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Across the other four games, Tucker averages 5.3 targets, 3.8 receptions, 38.8 yards, and 0 touchdowns per game.
In Tucker's two best weeks, he ranked top-7 at wide receiver in fantasy football. In the other weeks, he ranked outside the top 40 at his position.
In the red zone, Tucker has a 16% target share and just two targets from inside the 10-yard line over his last six games. Bowers, Jeanty, and Cody White all have more red zone targets than Tucker. So he is not a clear priority or a high-probability weekly touchdown scorer.
If Tucker proves to be a weekly fantasy football starter, it will mean the Raiders have an elite offense supported by three star pass-catching receivers. I do not see that happening.
Bowers and Mayer each average more than five targets per game, for a combined 14.6. They own about 40% of this passing offense in 2026.
Tucker is definitely the No. 3 pass-catcher, and saying he will pass Mayer as the No. 2 is bold. Klint Kubiak still trusts Mayer as a priority pass-catcher. He ranks 6th in PFF Receiving Grade out of 34 qualified tight ends. Despite sharing the offense with Bowers and playing only two of his six games without Bowers, Mayer ranks 4th in receptions, 8th in targets, 10th in tight end yards, T-1st in drops, and 11th in YAC/Reception.
The ESPN FPI tells us more about the Raiders' offense. They measure a team's results over 10,000 simulations. That gives the Raiders a -1.1 offensive rating, which means they are that many points worse than the average NFL offense.
The Raiders are considered worse than the Broncos, Commanders, Colts, and Seahawks offensively. The ranking comes to 19th in the league.
After all, Tucker does not have a very high ceiling. His great output has already come with a good dose of luck.
Tucker is my WR35 in Week 7 fantasy football. He often falls into that low-end WR3 range, making him a weekly start-sit debate. Coming off an elite Week 6, combined with a good-looking Raiders team, he can likely be sold above market.
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