After a strong finish to last season, the Illinois women's basketball team is ranked in both the preseason AP and coaches polls. Illinois was ranked No. 23 by AP voters and No. 22 by the coaches after a 22-12 (9-9 Big Ten) season that included an NCAA Tournament win.

The program is returning key starters and promising reserves in 2026-27, but the top 25 is an unusual spot for Illinois to find itself. The Illini entered the 2023-24 season also ranked No. 23 (after climbing as high as No. 21 a season prior), but they hadn't previously occupied a space in the AP poll since 2000-01. Are they truly a top 25 team now? Let's take a closer look.

Illinois women's basketball deserves to be ranked

No ifs, and or buts about it, the Illini deserve to be ranked. Illinois started last year 13-1 before playing around .550 ball after the New Year. A strong start earned the Illini a spot in the NCAA Tournament, and a win over Colorado in the first round showed they belonged before a loss to Vanderbilt in the second round.

Expectations are even higher this season. And the main reason why is because Illinois returns all five of its starters from 2025-26.

That's rare in today's world of college basketball and a major advantage for the Illini. Team chemistry and continuity is essential for any program, and Illinois has them.

Illinois also brings back its top bench player from last season in Aaliyah Guyton. Rarely is a team's top bench player a major key to a team's success, but Guyton is the type of player who could very well make the difference between Illinois finishing seventh or fifth in the Big Ten, and maybe even the difference in the Illini qualifying for NCAA Tournament compared to making the Sweet 16.

Aaliyah Guyton could be Illinois' X-Factor

Illinois' starting five can't play every minute of every game. Whether it's because of foul trouble or injuries, the Illini are going to need their bench players to step up. And no other reserve on the Illini roster can do what Guyton does.

She can score off the dribble as a shooter coming off screens or as a traditional point guard in the pick-and-roll game. She's also a solid on-ball defender who gives opposing point guards fits.

On most other Division I teams, Guyton would be a starting point guard. Instead, she's Illinois' first player off the bench – a microwave who can heat up instantly.

Guyton really seemed to embrace her role as an off-the-bench scorer towards the end of the Big Ten season, and if she shows she can deliver with even greater consistency, she could be in store for a big season.

Illinois needs to improve in one-score games

Illinois won 22 games last season, but only three of those wins came by three points or fewer. That might seem like a good thing – blowouts are a good thing, right? – except that scoring works both ways.

No team is going to routinely win every game by a comfortable margin, which makes steady, smart play in the clutch imperative. If Illinois can't find a way to nip more close games, especially come conference play, it could be in for another middling Big Ten finish.

But if the Illini – now one of the conference's more experienced clubs – can pull out a handful of close wins, building their confidence in those moments, they could enjoy a real breakthrough this season. No. 23? That may just be a starting point.

Two or three extra wins in conference play could help Illinois upgrade from, say, an eight seed in the NCAA Tournament to a six seed. And that could mark the difference between a one-and-done postseason appearance for Illinois and the possibility of a legitimate tournament run.