FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas (3-4, 1-3 SEC) has just a 26% chance of pulling off an upset of No. 23 (5-2, 2-2 SEC) inside Razorback Stadium on Saturday in what will be the first night game in Razorback Stadium since October 2024 against LSU.

Since the initial preview on Tuesday, the Razorbacks odds of going bowling have decreased a few percentage points from 4.2% to 3.8%, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.

That means Arkansas faces an uphill battle over its final five games against Missouri, at Auburn, South Carolina, at Texas and LSU. The Razorbacks aren't likely to be favored in any of those matchups.

After putting a 14-game SEC losing streak to rest at Vanderbilt two weeks ago, the Razorbacks are hoping to snap another four-game skid to Missouri. If Arkansas can find a way to pull it off, coach Ryan Silverfield would have his team sitting at .500 at 4-4 overall, 2-3 in the SEC.

More importantly, Arkansas would need just two victories over its final four games to reach the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility

What A Win Over Missouri Would Mean For Arkansas

A loss Saturday wouldn't mathematically eliminate the Razorbacks from bowl contention, but it would leave almost no margin for error for a team that really hasn't inspired much confidence in anyone this season.

However, Silverfield has kept his team's attention and focus on continual improvement over each week, and that's apparent to their previous two performances against Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

A victory over the Tigers would give Arkansas consecutive SEC victories for the first time since the 2021 season, and provide evidence that program trajectory is trending upward.

Where Can Arkansas Find Two More WIns?

Auburn and South Carolina are the two obvious and most realistic opportunities for the Razorbacks snag a couple of victories, and that's widely dependent on whether each of the two programs continue their winning ways into the month of November.

Given the Razorbacks struggles with consistency over the first two months of the season, neither game against the Gamecocks or Tigers should be considered a sure thing. Then there's the trip to Texas and the finale against LSU for the Golden Boot Trophy, which area a pair of games that could make reaching that six-win threshold even harder to accomplish.

Arkansas has shown the ability to compete for a full 60 minutes recently, but even if the Hogs take a lead into the fourth quarter, it's never quite safe enough to assume they'll close out the game.

That's been one of the biggest issues for this program in recent years, and the Razorbacks have found just about every way imaginable to lose close games. Until they start winning a few of those close games, it's hard to expect the end result to be much different.

All coaches can point to right now is progress.

Fans aren't going to be willing to accept moral victories either.

But beating Missouri on Saturday night could be the start of easing the pain over the past 15 years. Pulling out a win on Halloween night could propel Arkansas into November, and potentially make it one to remember.

Kickoff between Arkansas and Missouri is set for 6:45 p.m. on Saturday, with coverage on SEC Network and the Razorback Sports Network.