The rugby league World Cup has reached the knockout stage and, from afar, it is business as usual for the Kangaroos. Three wins from three matches. Pursuing the trophy for the fourth consecutive time. In front of home fans, the humdrum front-runners are the team to beat at this tournament, again.

But there are dark skies on the horizon, a little rumbling underfoot.

At the advent of the semi-finals, three hungry squads oozing with top-level talent await in the final four, with not so much chips on their shoulders as huge, 1990s-style potato wedges. The momentum of each is building, the narrative incomplete.

Inside the Australia camp, there is the pressure on nice guy coach Kevin Walters, and the Kangaroos’ forward pack humbled in the tournament so far. Then there is the free agent frenzy that will dominate this week’s lead-up; distraction as fertiliser to seeds of doubt.

There is little to gain and much to lose for the hosts as they prepare for Sunday’s semi-final against Samoa at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, and they have more than one cause for concern.

Tonga’s spectacular win against Samoa in Parramatta on Sunday was the tournament’s finest spectacle – eclipsing the wild encounter between France and Lebanon that preceded it – with a capacity crowd and thousands of flags creating a carnival atmosphere for the clash of two frenemies.

This was more than just elite entertainment, however. That the players of both sides committed themselves for the duration of the intense 80 minutes, even though a semi-final had already been locked in, underscores the level of motivation within these proud squads.

The disallowed Samoan try in the dying stages suggests that either of the teams will provide a test for the Kangaroos. Both boast several players that would be comfortable in the green and gold.

Toa Samoa’s Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow might not have ousted Reece Walsh or James Tedesco at fullback, but he would have almost certainly added to his six caps for the Kangaroos had he chosen to continue with Australia. Brian To’o has in recent years been the NRL’s top winger, and Stephen Crichton the benchmark centre, even if both have been slightly off their peak in 2026.

Tonga have the best half in rugby league since Nathan Cleary’s injury, Isaiya Katoa, and the Dally M centre of the year in Rob Toia. Both sides have enough power and punch in their forward packs to allow proven State of Origin bruisers still at their peak to be deployed off the bench: Stefano Utoikamanu for Tonga, and Spencer Leniu for Samoa.

The reward for Mate Ma’a Tonga after their win on Sunday? A clash against the side that should have beaten the Kangaroos in round one, and the squad that boasts the most imposing forward line-up in the tournament.

New Zealand have battered the Cook Islands and Fiji since that unfortunate opener, scoring 160 points in those two matches. Although they are missing the injured Kalyn Ponga, the Kiwis’ go-forward is complemented by the class of half Jahrome Hughes and the strike of centre Casey McLean, the scorer of four tries against Fiji on Saturday.

They would be favourites were it not for the Kangaroos’ lucky escape in the first round, justice robbed by a pair of intercepts and two Jack Bostock jackpots. Though Australia has improved since then and cruised through the pool stage with wins over Fiji and the Cook Islands, they trailed in both of those matches.

Against Fiji, the Kangaroos looked, for a moment, to be down by two tries, with half an hour to play. But an intervention by the video referee triggered a turnaround and they coasted home with relative ease. An early second half blitz against the Cook Islands settled that contest, but the errors and disconnection that marked Australia’s first two matches are yet to be shaken loose.

In coach Walters the team has an inoffensive, even likeable, dressing room presence, perfectly suited for making an end-of-year tournament tolerable after a long season. He is not known as a tactician or taskmaster, and his best quality might be his ability to get out of the way of a talented roster.

Australia’s claims to even that, however, have come under the microscope after the matches against the Kiwis and Fiji. New Zealand averaged five more metres per set than the Kangaroos, who also struggled to get a roll on against the Bati. The pursuit of mobility in the selection of the Kangaroo forwards, rather than grunt, means they will need to attack down the edges, and stretch the opposing defensive lines.

The best thing about the Kangaroos might just be the man who doesn’t play. Tedesco appears unlikely to unseat Walsh in the No 1 jersey, especially given the Bronco’s electrifying performance against the Cook Islands, and his success under Walters in England last year.

Halfback Sam Walker has also been subject to selection speculation. He now appears below Tom Dearden in the pecking order after missing out on playing against the Cook Islands, but he has more to worry about after being cut adrift by the Roosters amid a contract stand-off.

He is one of several Kangaroos entering negotiations just as the tournament gets to its pointy end, alongside Latrell Mitchell, Cam Munster, Harry Grant, Liam Martin, Bradman Best and Bostock. When they line up against the passionate Samoans on Sunday, they may find more motivation than money.