A month ago, I was fairly confident I knew how the Sam Darnold story would go. He’d have another solid season, win a bunch of games, go deep into the postseason, and then sign a contract extension in the realm of $55 million a year. I didn’t think it was possible that things could change this fast. But such is life in the NFL. So where are we now?

We’ve Been Here Before

This isn’t the first low moment in the Sam Darnold experience for the Seattle Seahawks. Last year’s week 10 game in Los Angeles, a four-interception affair that wasted a superhuman defensive performance, was in the conversation for the worst game a Seahawk quarterback had played in decades. But what happened after that game was over?

The Seahawks went to bat for Sam. They defended him and stood by him. Ernest Jones, famously, gave some colorful quotes sticking up for him. And Darnold rewarded that belief the rest of the season, with the Seahawks not losing another game the rest of the way, including some where Sam had to pick up the slack for the defense. But what about now?

What A Difference A Year Makes

Far be it from me to play armchair psychologist right now. But Byron Murphy and Derick Hall run a podcast where they get to express themselves on a level that most players don’t. And after last week’s loss to the Denver Broncos, it’s hard for me to not read into their comments. They sounded like a couple defensive players that knew their offense was failing them.

Murphy said that he felt like, as a defense, they did everything they were supposed to do, and that they played lights out. Hall echoed that, saying he felt like they played a hell of a game. They did concede some minor imperfections, but overall, it felt like a couple of players that were tired of playing elite football and still not getting the win.

Echoes Of The Legion Of Boom VS Russell Wilson

I can’t help but think about a decade ago, when the Legion of Boom era in Seattle was winding down. You could tell things weren’t right, and once the star defenders departed the Seahawks for other teams or retirement, they publicly confirmed it. There was a rift between the defense and quarterback. The defense didn’t appreciate the double standard in treatment.

I don’t believe there’s any double standard in this situation, but I believe the resentment could creep in regardless. And once that resentment is there, it’s very hard to get rid of it. Fans rattling the cages for Drew Lock to start is one thing, but the moment the players in that locker room start echoing that, I think it’s a wrap. Does that happen with one more bad game?

Wasting An All-Time Defense

The defense is not wrong if they feel like the offense is selling them out. The Seahawks currently rank third in Rush EPA and Success Rate, second in EPA, Dropback EPA, Success Rate, and Dropback Success Rate, and first (by a mile) in yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play. You can’t be much better than they are right now.

That final point is an especially big one. The Seahawks are allowing 4 yards per play. No defense since at least 2003 has done that, and only one (the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers) has come close, at 4.1. It’s a defense that should be 6-0 right now. Blame Brian Fleury, George Holani, Abe Lucas, Rashid Shaheed, or whoever else, but Sam is the QB.

How Long Is The Leash?

It’s possible Sam has a bit of a reprieve at the moment, as Drew Lock is battling a right elbow injury that may make him unavailable this weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks also at least wait until Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price return before passing full judgement on Darnold. But the NFL season is only seventeen games long.

The Seahawks would be 5-1 at worst right now with a bad offense that avoids turnovers. They’re 3-3 because they have a very bad offense that turns it over constantly. I don’t believe this team can fix all of their offensive issues this season, but if they can fix some of them with a quarterback change, that might be enough for them to start winning games.