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Following a big win in Orlando against UCF, Baylor is back in action this week, and returns to Waco. The Bears' homecoming game will be against Iowa State, a team that upset Oklahoma State last weekend in an old-school Big 12 showdown.
Week 10 will mark Joe Klanderman's second game as the Bears' interim head coach and Baylor flashed a lot of energy last weekend. Will the same thing happen this week? We will find out.
In the meantime, we came up with four prop predictions for the game and picked an Over/Under for each.
DJ Lagway has shown the ability to throw for 300+ yards multiple times this season and with his numerous options to target, there's no reason to believe that he won't also be able to do so against ISU. However, last week 77 of Lagway's passing yards came on a Gavin Freeman catch-and-run touchdown, and another 53 came from a Jadon Porter catch and broken tackle.
If ISU is able to limit the breakaway plays from Baylor's receivers, Lagway's numbers may not be nearly as high this week. The Cyclones are currently just ranked one spot higher in passing YPG, averaging 231.3 passing YPG to Baylor's 233.4. I expect a big day from DJ Lagway and Baylor's offense against ISU's defense and therefore I'm picking the OVER.
I think Lagway will have a good game, but I don’t think he will reach 300 passing yards. I do think he will get close to that number, though. Assuming Baylor has a lead, I expect them to utilize the running game some, whether that’s through Lagway’s legs or the running backs.
DJ Lagway turned in arguably his best performance of the season against UCF, throwing for 319 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. With Iowa State's vulnerable secondary coming to Waco, he has a good chance to build on that performance.
Through six appearances, Lagway has thrown for 1,671 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 278.5 yards per game. He's surpassed 300 yards in three of those games, while Baylor averages 283.9 passing yards per contest.
Iowa State has allowed opponents to complete 66.5% of their passes while surrendering 14 passing touchdowns. The Cyclones have also struggled to generate pressure, recording only 10 sacks through eight games. Given those weaknesses, I like Lagway's chances of surpassing 300 yards for the second consecutive game.
I think DJ will have a great game on Saturday, but 300 passing yards is steep. I think Baylor will lean into the run and try to keep that rushing momentum going from the UCF game. I predict DJ falls in the 260-280 range on Saturday, which will be more than enough offense to win the game.
At this point, less than 4 SKs in a game would almost feel like a let-down for the Bears defense when you consider how dominant they've been all season. With what Joe Klanderman has been able to accomplish by turning this Bears defense around from the state in which 2025 saw it to what it currently is now is nothing short of amazing.
After 7 SKs and 12 TFLs against UCF last week, and with one of the deepest defensive line rotations that Baylor has seen in years. Whether or not they come from the D-line, the linebackers, or even the secondary, I'm quite comfortable taking the OVER here.
This Baylor defense has been great at bringing pressure all season long. Against UCF, Baylor picked up seven sacks, which was a season high. They currently rank among the nation’s best in sacks, and I think they will continue to bring pressure and disrupt the Iowa State offense.
Baylor's pass rush has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks this season. The Bears have recorded 34 sacks through eight games, averaging 4.25 per contest, and are coming off a seven-sack performance against UCF.
Traevon "Slug" Mitchell and Garrick Ponder have been two of Baylor's biggest difference-makers up front, combining for 17 tackles for loss. The Bears have also been excellent against the run, allowing just 99.4 rushing yards per game.
Baylor's ability to slow down opposing running backs could force the Cyclones into more obvious passing situations. Given how consistently the Bears have pressured quarterbacks, I like their chances of recording at least four sacks.
I like the Baylor defense to get four sacks. Iowa State’s offense has been really good against bad defenses and really bad against good defenses. They only mustered three points in a game against Arizona a couple of weeks back, and had 10 against BYU. Baylor should be able to easily hold their own against the Iowa State defensive line.
I'm taking the OVER here. Not because I don't think that Freeman will absolutely get his targets and touches (because he will), but rather that I expect Tony Livingston and Jadon Porter to be a more frequently targeted duo than in weeks previous. Livingston provides TE size and soft hands whereas Porter has not only shown the ability to make an acrobatic tip-toe catch on the sidelines, but also the elusiveness to make a defender miss and pick up an extra chunk of yards.
Gavin Freeman has clearly been the Bears’ most reliable target on offense, and we’ve all been waiting for someone else to step up and help Lagway out. Against UCF, we saw six different wide receivers record a reception, which was great, but none of the other five wide receivers had more than two catches. I don’t think any of them will come away with five or more receptions in this matchup.
Gavin Freeman has been Baylor's go-to receiver all season, recording 792 receiving yards through eight games while averaging 7.8 catches per contest. Even with other receivers stepping up recently, he remains Lagway's favorite target.
Jadon Porter has shown plenty of big-play potential, but he's caught just 14 passes for 273 yards and two touchdowns in six appearances. That's an average of 2.3 receptions per game, well below the five needed to hit the over.
Baylor has also gotten its tight ends more involved, with Tony Livingston catching two touchdowns against UCF and Matthew Klopfenstein adding another. Iowa State's secondary is vulnerable, but with Freeman commanding so many targets and the tight ends contributing, I don't see another Baylor receiver reaching five catches.
I can not see Jadon Porter and/or Louis Brown IV getting enough targets to break five catches in a game. Gavin Freeman, on the other hand, is what makes this offense turn and will get over four catches again.
UCF, against the Bears, had 12 rushing yards all game until literally the last minute of the game when Alonza Barnett, who backed up for an injured Keyone Jenkins, gained 56 yards on a scamper down to the goal line. Kansas had more success, gaining 209 yards after 56 carries. TCU however was allowed only 33 rushing yards on 30 carries.
Kansas' largest success in their win was the ability to stay on the field through long drives and the occasional 4th down conversion. I don't expect ISU to have that same level of production as the Bears' defense will be looking to not only contain Flora but also make him fight for every yard. Solved during the week through either film study or clever scheming; I'm confident in the UNDER for this.
Aiden Flora has been great this season for the Cyclones, averaging 117.1 rushing yards per game. I expect the Cyclones to be playing from behind in this matchup and have to rely more on their passing game in the second half. On top of that, Baylor’s run defense has been excellent this season, allowing just 99.4 rushing yards per game. I don’t expect Flora to reach 80 rushing yards.
Aiden Flora has been one of the Big 12's most explosive running backs, rushing for 937 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 117.1 yards per game. However, his three biggest performances account for 627 of those yards, including a career-high 221 against Oklahoma State.
Flora has had a harder time finding running room against some of Iowa State's tougher opponents, rushing for 54 yards against Utah, 36 against Arizona and 86 against BYU.
Baylor's run defense should present another tough challenge. After ranking 122nd nationally last season, the Bears have climbed to allowing just 99.4 rushing yards per game. They most recently held UCF to 66 rushing yards on 30 attempts, and while Flora is capable of breaking off a long run at any moment, I think Baylor will keep him under 80 yards.
Once again, this Iowa State offense will struggle to move the ball on this Baylor defense. I also think that Baylor will go up early in this game, forcing rushing attempts to not fully be a part of the game script. I do see Flora getting a lot of action in the screen and short passing game, though something Iowa State will desperately need.
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