flag
back Retour
College Football Playoff resume rankings: Alabama is No. 1, but how long can it last?

The Crimson Tide are in a unique schedule position compared to the rest of the SEC

Getty Images

Alabama has college football's best resume right now, but it won't have the best resume three weeks from now, barring something drastic. At a time when other teams around the SEC and elsewhere in college football will still be adding marquee wins to their ledgers, the Crimson Tide will be wading through the kiddie pool of Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn. 

The Crimson Tide's final three games constitute the easiest closing stretch in the SEC and will put their case for a first-round CFP bye in jeopardy.

So while the Crimson Tide stand at No. 1 in our resume ranking today and at No. 3 in the College Football Playoff Rankings, their staying power in both is limited. As the picture stands entering Week 11, each of the five teams directly behind Alabama in our resume rankings can catch the Crimson Tide in resume score by winning their final three games -- even if Alabama does the same.

Based on college basketball's Wins Above Bubble, our resume scores assign a value for each win/loss based on the likelihood that the average top-25 team would win or lose the game. That value is determined by where your opponents rank in the CFB Metrics Consensus and where the game was played. If you beat the No. 1 team on the road, you get +0.98 added to your resume score in reflection of the fact that the average No. 25 team would lose on the road against No. 1 approximately 98% of the time.

We are taking another page out of college basketball's playbook this week by adding quadrants to each team's resume. They are also determined by where your opponents rank in the CFB Metrics Consensus.

Quad 1: High quality
1–15 Home
1–18 Neutral
1–21 Road

Quad 2: Middle class
16–38 Home 
19–45 Natural
22–52 Road

Quad 3: Relatively insignificant
39–74 Home 
46–84 Neutral
53–94 Road

Quad 4: Total nothingburger 
75–138 / FCS Home
85–138 Neutral
95–138 Road

College Football Playoff Rankings: Georgia moves to No. 1 as Alabama, UCLA join top four in second release

Brad Crawford

College Football Playoff Rankings: Georgia moves to No. 1 as Alabama, UCLA join top four in second release

Week 11 CFP Resume Rankings

No. 1 Alabama

Record: 7-2
Resume score:
2.70
CFP Ranking:
3

Quad 1 (1-2): W @ No. 6 LSU (+0.87), L vs. No. 1 Georgia (-0.08), L @ No. 10 Tennessee (-0.21)

Quad 2 (4-0): W @ No. 27 Kentucky (+0.50), W vs. No. 17 South Carolina (+0.58), W @ No. 45 Mississippi State (+0.34), W vs. No. 30 Texas A&M (+0.37)

Quad 3 (1-0): W vs. No. 46 Florida State (+0.24)

Quad 4 (1-0): W vs. No. 90 East Carolina (+0.09)

What's left: at No. 70 Vanderbilt (Q3) vs. Chattanooga (Q4) vs. No. 38 Auburn (Q2)

Breakdown: Alabama can add nothing of substance to its resume over the season's final three weeks. No team in the SEC has less potential to enhance their resume than the Crimson Tide. For now, their win over LSU is doing major work since it came on the road against a team that still rates within the top 10 at the CFB Metrics Consensus. 

No. 2 Kentucky

Record: 7-2
Resume score:
2.35
CFP Ranking:
11

Quad 1 (2-2): W @ No. 17 South Carolina (+0.67), W vs. No. 6 LSU (+0.79), L vs. No. 2 Alabama (-0.11), L @ No. 10 Tennessee (-0.21)

Quad 2 (2-0): W @ No. 30 Texas A&M (+0.47), W @ No. 25 Oklahoma (+0.54)

Quad 3 (1-0): W vs. No. 70 Vanderbilt (+0.14)

Quad 4 (2-0): W vs. Youngstown State (0.00), W vs. No. 102 South Alabama (+0.06)

What's left: vs. No. 29 Florida (Q2) at No. 22 Missouri (Q2) vs. No. 20 Louisville (Q2)

Breakdown: If Kentucky won out, it would be projected to finish with the best resume score of any SEC team. If UK finished 2-1, it would be right up there with Texas in terms of resume strength for potential 3-loss SEC teams. But a lackluster power rating (Kentucky is 27th in the CFB Metrics Consensus) pours cold water on the idea of the Wildcats making the field at 9-3.

No. 3 Utah

Record: 9-0
Resume score:
2.29
CFP Ranking:
2

Quad 1 (0-0):

Quad 2 (4-0): W @ No. 52 Iowa State (+0.30), W vs. No. 21 Houston (+0.50), W @ No. 51 Cincinnati (+0.30), W vs. No. 16 BYU (+0.59)

Quad 3 (3-0): W vs. No. 67 Arkansas (+0.14), W vs. No. 57 Kansas (+0.18), W @ No. 79 Colorado (+0.18)

Quad 4 (2-0): W vs. Idaho (0.00), W vs. No. 86 Utah State (+0.10)

What's left: at No. 24 Arizona (Q2) at No. 41 TCU (Q2) vs. No. 58 West Virginia (Q3)

Breakdown: The "Quad" system is a helpful visual for breaking down resumes, but it's worth going even deeper. Utah's resume provides a perfect example. Just because victories over Houston and BYU fall just outside the Quad 1 fence doesn't mean they aren't really nice wins. Same deal if Utah wins at Arizona. It wouldn't be a Quad 1 win by our standards, but it would still be a good victory.

No. 4 Texas

Record: 7-2
Resume score:
2.26
CFP Ranking:
6

Quad 1 (3-0): W vs. No. 7 Ohio State (+0.77), W @ No. 10 Tennessee (+0.79), W vs. No. 12 Ole Miss (+0.67)

Quad 2 (1-2): L vs. No. 25 Oklahoma (N) (-0.51), L vs. No. 29 Florida (-0.62), W @ No. 22 Missouri (+0.59)

Quad 3 (3-0): W vs. No. 55 Texas State (+0.19), W vs. No. 73 UTSA (+0.13), W vs. No. 45 Mississippi State (+0.25)

Quad 4 (0-0):

What's left: at No. 6 LSU (Q1) vs. No. 67 Arkansas (Q3) at No. 30 Texas A&M (Q2)

Breakdown: At 3-0 in Quad 1, Texas has some gold plating on its resume. It will also be important to note moving forward that its win over Ohio State came when Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin was healthy. Combine that with a strong standing in the power ratings, and it will be no surprise to see the Longhorns reach the field at 9-3 even after a potential loss to LSU this week. In fact, it would be shocking if a 9-3 Texas team didn't make the field.

No. 5 Georgia

Record: 8-1
Resume score:
2.25
CFP Ranking:
1

Quad 1 (2-0): W @ No. 2 Alabama (+0.95), W @ No. 12 Ole Miss (+0.75)

Quad 2 (2-1): W vs. No. 25 Oklahoma (+0.43), L vs. No. 38 Auburn (-0.70), W vs. No. 29 Florida (N) (+0.44)

Quad 3 (2-0): W @ No. 67 Arkansas (+0.22), W vs. No. 70 Vanderbilt (+0.14)

Quad 4 (2-0): W vs. Tennessee State (0.00), W vs. No. 122 Western Kentucky (+0.02)

What's left: vs. No. 22 Missouri (Q2) at No. 17 South Carolina (Q1) vs. No. 91 Georgia Tech (Q4)

Breakdown: Georgia's schedule is the easiest in the SEC. In a world where the Bulldogs arrive at Selection Sunday with a 9-3 record, they probably wouldn't deserve to make the playoff, because their 9-3 record wouldn't be the same as a hypothetical 9-3 record for Texas. But the good news for Georgia is that we won't have to worry about that. The Bulldogs are rolling after picking up a second Quad 1 win in dominant fashion at Ole Miss.

No. 6 UCLA

Record: 9-0
Resume score:
2.13
CFP Ranking:
4

Quad 1 (1-0): W @ No. 11 Oregon (+0.77)

Quad 2 (1-0): W vs. No. 36 Wisconsin (+0.32)

Quad 3 (4-0): W vs. No. 65 Purdue (+0.15), W @ No. 75 Maryland (+0.19), W vs. No. 62 Michigan State (+0.16), W @ No. 53 Minnesota (+0.29)

Quad 4 (3-0): W @ No. 96 California (+0.12), W vs. No. 97 San Diego State (+0.07), W vs. No. 103 Nevada (+0.06)

What's left: vs. No. 37 Illinois (Q2) at No. 39 Michigan (Q2) vs. No. 19 USC (Q2)

Breakdown: When you break UCLA's schedule down in this fashion, the final 25% of the Bruins' schedule comes into focus for being rather challenging. Their final three games will be among the five toughest on a light regular-season slate.

No. 7 Miami

Record: 8-1
Resume score:
2.03
CFP Ranking:
7

Quad 1 (1-1): W @ No. 13 Wake Forest (+0.73), L @ No. 3 Notre Dame (-0.07)

Quad 2 (2-0): W @ No. 47 Clemson (+0.33), W @ No. 40 North Carolina (+0.38)

Quad 3 (2-0): W vs. No. 46 Florida State (+0.24), W vs. No. 42 Pitt (+0.27)

Quad 4 (3-0): W @ No. 98 Stanford (+0.11), W vs. Florida A&M (0.00), W vs. No. 112 Central Michigan (+0.04)

What's left: vs. No. 33 Duke (Q2) vs. No. 56 Virginia Tech (Q3) vs. No. 85 Boston College (Q4)

Breakdown: We assume Miami will reach the College Football Playoff as the ACC champion. But if the Hurricanes suffered a loss to either Duke or Virginia Tech and then failed to win the conference title, their 10-3 resume would be paltry compared to some other bubble teams. That scenario is unlikely, but the Hurricanes aren't quite a CFP lock just yet.

No. 8 Notre Dame

Record: 8-1
Resume score:
1.88
CFP Ranking:
5

Quad 1 (1-1): L @ No. 16 BYU (-0.32), W vs. No. 4 Miami (+0.84)

Quad 2 (2-0): W vs. No. 36 Wisconsin (N) (+0.37), W @ No. 40 North Carolina (+0.38)

Quad 3 (2-0): W vs. No. 62 Michigan State (+0.16), W @ No. 65 Purdue (+0.23)

Quad 4 (3-0): W vs. No. 121 Rice (+0.03), W vs. No. 98 Stanford (+0.07), W vs. No. 87 Navy (N) (+0.12)

What's left: vs. No. 85 Boston College (Q4) vs. No. 35 SMU (Q2) at No. 69 Syracuse (Q3)

Breakdown: It's hard to overstate the magnitude of Notre Dame's win over Miami. Entering Week 11, it accounts for 44.7% of the Hurricanes' resume score. The Fighting Irish would still be wise to win out and finish 11-1, but they can exhale a little bit, knowing there will be something of substance on their team sheet come Selection Sunday.

No. 9 Ole Miss

Record: 6-3
Resume score:
1.66
CFP Ranking:
19

Quad 1 (1-2): W vs. No. 6 LSU (+0.79), L @ No. 5 Texas (-0.11), L vs. No. 1 Georgia (-0.08)

Quad 2 (3-1): W vs. No. 20 Louisville (N) (+0.58), L @ No. 29 Florida (-0.52), W vs. No. 22 Missouri (+0.48), W vs. No. 38 Auburn (+0.30)

Quad 3 (1-0): W @ No. 70 Vanderbilt (+0.21)

Quad 4 (1-0): W vs. No. 134 Charlotte (+0.01)

What's left: at No. 25 Oklahoma (Q2) vs. Wofford (Q4) vs. No. 45 Mississippi State (Q3)

Breakdown: Could Ole Miss still make the College Football Playoff at 9-3? The CBS CFP Forecaster says it's more likely than not. Part of it will depend on how earlier victories against LSU, Louisville and Missouri hold up down the stretch. If the Rebels arrive at Selection Sunday with three "ranked wins," then perhaps there's still hope.

No. 10 Indiana

Record: 8-1
Resume score:
1.62
CFP Ranking:
9

Quad 1 (0-1): L vs. No. 7 Ohio State (-0.23)

Quad 2 (3-0): W vs. No. 28 Northwestern (+0.39), W @ No. 26 Nebraska (+0.52), W @ No. 39 Michigan (+0.39)

Quad 3 (3-0): W vs. No. 54 North Texas (+0.20), W @ No. 93 Rutgers (+0.13), W vs. No. 53 Minnesota (+0.20)

Quad 4 (2-0): W vs. Howard (0.00), W vs. No. 122 Western Kentucky (+0.02)

What's left: vs. No. 19 USC (Q2) at No. 43 Washington (Q2) vs. No. 65 Purdue (Q3)

Breakdown: This view is incredibly helpful for sorting through the narrative-based clutter with Indiana. Does the CFP Selection Committee hate the Hoosiers because they play in the Big Ten? No, it appears they are simply evaluating IU based on the merits of what it has achieved against what is, without any debate, an easy schedule.

No. 11 Tennessee

Record: 7-2
Resume score:
1.47
CFP Ranking:
8

Quad 1 (1-2): L vs. No. 5 Texas (-0.19), W vs. No. 2 Alabama (+0.89), L @ No. 17 South Carolina (-0.33)

Quad 2 (2-0): W vs. No. 38 Auburn (+0.30), W vs. No. 27 Kentucky (+0.40)

Quad 3 (2-0): W @ No. 91 Georgia Tech (+0.14), W @ No. 67 Arkansas (+0.22)

Quad 4 (2-0): W vs. Furman (0.00), W vs. No. 114 Kennesaw State (+0.04)

What's left: at No. 30 Texas A&M (Q2) vs. No. 6 LSU (Q1) at No. 70 Vanderbilt (Q3)

Breakdown: Tennessee fans remain dismayed that the Volunteers are behind Alabama in the CFP Rankings, despite having the same record and a convincing head-to-head win. This view brings the "why" into focus a bit. The Crimson Tide have five wins across Quad 1 and Quad 2 compared to Tennessee's three. But there is hope. Alabama has absolutely nothing of substance remaining on its schedule, which means Tennessee's resume will be comparable (and therefore better because of a head-to-head win) on Selection Sunday if the Vols win out.

No. 12 BYU

Record: 7-2
Resume score:
1.26
CFP Ranking:
10

Quad 1 (1-1): W vs. No. 3 Notre Dame (+0.86), L @ No. 8 Utah (-0.17)

Quad 2 (2-1): W vs. No. 24 Arizona (+0.45), W @ No. 41 TCU (+0.37), L @ No. 50 UCF (-0.69)

Quad 3 (2-0): W vs. No. 52 Iowa State (+0.21), W vs. No. 63 Arizona State (+0.16)

Quad 4 (2-0): W vs. Utah Tech (0.00), W @ No. 116 Colorado State (+0.07)

What's left: vs. No. 31 Baylor (Q2) at No. 57 Kansas (Q3) vs. No. 51 Cincinnati (Q3)

Breakdown: BYU needs to hope that other bubble teams struggle down the stretch, because the Cougars don't have much ability to improve their resume over the next three weeks. Unfortunately, the loss at UCF (-0.69) will hinder this team's CFP aspirations.

No. 13 Wake Forest

Record: 8-1
Resume score:
1.26
CFP Ranking:
13

Quad 1 (1-1): L vs. No. 4 Miami (-0.16), W @ No. 20 Louisville (+0.62)

Quad 2 (0-0):

Quad 3 (3-0): W @ No. 65 Purdue (+0.23), W @ No. 74 NC State (+0.20), W vs. No. 61 Virginia (+0.17)

Quad 4 (4-0): W vs. No. 136 Akron (+0.01), W vs. No. 98 Stanford (+0.07), W @ No. 96 California (+0.12), W vs. Merrimack (0.00)

What's left: at No. 35 SMU (Q2) at No. 91 Georgia Tech (Q3) vs. No. 33 Duke (Q2)

Breakdown: There is a glaring absence of "Quad 2" action for Wake Forest, which has amassed the nation's top point differential (247) while mostly knocking the tar out of overmatched foes. Beating SMU and Duke during the season's final three weeks would actually add some dimension to the Demon Deacons' resume and give them a chance to reach the CFP as an 11-2 loser of the ACC Championship Game.

No. 14 Oregon

Record: 6-3
Resume score:
1.26
CFP Ranking:
16

Quad 1 (2-1): W @ No. 19 USC (+0.64), L vs. No. 14 UCLA (-0.37), W @ No. 7 Ohio State (+0.85)

Quad 2 (3-2): W vs. No. 32 Boise State (+0.35), L @ No. 23 Oklahoma State (-0.42), W vs. No. 26 Nebraska (+0.41), L @ No. 37 Illinois (-0.59), W vs. No. 28 Northwestern (+0.39)

Quad 3 (0-0):

Quad 4 (1-0): W vs. Portland State (0.00)

What's left: vs. No. 39 Michigan (Q3) at No. 62 Michigan State (Q3) vs. No. 43 Washington (Q3)

Breakdown: Oregon's docket is remarkably loaded with Quad 1 and Quad 2 fare….for now. The Ducks are hard-capped on how much higher they can rise in the resume rankings because of the fact that their final three games are all projected to be in Quad 3.

No. 15 Ohio State

Record: 6-3
Resume score:
1.19
CFP Ranking:
20

Quad 1 (2-3): L @ No. 5 Texas (-0.11), W @ No. 15 Iowa (+0.70), W @ No. 9 Indiana (+0.81), L @ No. 19 USC (-0.36), L vs. No. 11 Oregon (-0.31)

Quad 2 (1-0): W vs. No. 37 Illinois (+0.31)

Quad 3 (0-0):

Quad 4 (3-0): W vs. No. 130 Ball State (+0.02), W vs. No. 132 Kent State (+0.01), W vs. No. 75 Maryland (+0.12)

What's left: vs. No. 28 Northwestern (Q2) at No. 26 Nebraska (Q2) vs. No. 39 Michigan (Q3)

Breakdown: Is Ohio State 100% dead for the College Football Playoff with three losses? Probably not. If the Buckeyes win out, they will have a solid resume bolstered by road wins over Indiana and Iowa. All three of their losses are against Quad 1 opponents. Plus, the Buckeyes can play the "our quarterback was hurt and might still come back for the CFP" card.

You may like

Rece Davis Reveals Why Alabama's No. 3 College Football Playoff Ranking 'Seems High'

si.com il y a 4 heures

Three Bold Predictions for Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn

si.com il y a 3 heures

Oregon Displays National Reach With Ohio State TV Viewership

si.com il y a 27 minutes

Dan Lanning Says the Quiet Part Out Loud About Jeremiah McClellan’s Return From Injury

si.com il y a 2 heures

Updated 2027 NFL Draft Order: Where Dallas Cowboys Stand After Trade Deadline

si.com il y a 48 minutes

How can Mark Pope find more shots for sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic?

si.com il y a 1 heure

South Carolina at Arkansas: Will the Gamecocks Keep Their College Football Playoff Hopes Alive?

si.com il y a 32 minutes

Dylan Raiola Divulges Oregon’s Secret to Offensive Turnaround

si.com il y a 3 heures

Seahawks Rookie Report: Jadarian Price Coming Off Best Game Yet

si.com il y a 27 minutes