With the MLB lockout only weeks away, free agency could begin to pick up at any moment, and fast.

The New York Mets will likely be at the center of conversations surrounding many of the top available pitchers, both starters and relievers. After missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season, New York appears destined to make a significant splash this offseason.

One player who would fit that profile is left-handed reliever Adrian Morejon. The former San Diego Padres All-Star is expected to draw considerable interest on the open market, and rightfully so.

Morejon is coming off another stellar season, posting a 2.83 ERA with 107 strikeouts across a new career-high 86 innings.

While he's never served as San Diego's closer, Morejon possesses all the traits that should have teams salivating at the opportunity to make him their ninth-inning option.

There's also a possibility that the left-hander transitions into a starting role, which could make him even more appealing to the Mets. New York has already demonstrated a willingness to convert relievers into starters, as we saw with Clay Holmes.

However, that possibility appears unlikely, as Will Sammon of The Athletic recently reported Morejon would prefer to remain a reliever.

So, as we project what type of contract the coveted free agent will receive, we'll do so with him remaining as a reliever.

What an Adrian Morejon contract with the Mets could look like

Projecting contracts for relievers is always difficult given how volatile their market can be each offseason. That task becomes even more challenging with a rare talent like Morejon, who won't turn 28 until February.

Combine his age with a four-seam fastball that averages 99.5 mph paired with an equally devastating kick-changeup, and you have nearly everything a team could want in a closer.

Just one look at Morejon's Baseball Savant page should tell you everything you need to know about how special he is. The left-hander's page is drenched in red, ranking in the 99th percentile in several key categories, including xERA (2.34), chase percentage (38.6%), and barrel percentage (2.8%)

The closest comparison for Morejon is Josh Hader, who entered free agency at 29 years old.

Hader possessed many of the same traits that Morejon does now, with the notable exception of having established himself as a closer. The All-Star left-hander ultimately signed a five-year, $95 million contract with the Houston Astros in 2024.

It wouldn't be a far-fetched to suggest Morejon could surpass that figure in free agency this offseason. In fact, that's exactly what we're projecting.

Projection: Five years, $105 million ($21 million AAV)

A deal of that magnitude would set a new record for the largest contract ever awarded to a reliever, surpassing the five-year, $102 million agreement Edwin Diaz signed with the Mets in 2022.

Is Adrian Morejon worth that price for the Mets?

There's no denying that Morejon would instantly improve the Mets, giving them a formidable weapon at the back end of their bullpen. However, New York would be wise to steer clear of such a deal.

Why, you may ask? Well, there are several reasons.

By far the biggest concern is that Morejon has a qualifying offer attached to him, meaning the Mets would have to surrender their second-and fifth-highest selections in the 2027 MLB Draft if they signed him. New York would also forfeit $1 million in international signing bonus pool money.

These penalties are particularly severe because the Mets exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2026. New York could also see its first-round pick potentially drop 10 spots as a separate penalty for their elevated payroll. Sacrificing that much draft capital to sign Morejon doesn't seem worthwhile.

The Mets also have a more pressing need in their starting rotation that will likely require a large financial commitment. Tarik Skubal and Michael King are two potential targets, with many expecting New York to pursue at least one of them this offseason.

Skubal, of course, is expected to command a contract exceeding $300 million, while King could secure a deal approaching $100 million. Committing that much money to a starting pitcher while also signing Morejon to a record-setting contract would be difficult to justify.

Lastly, the Mets already have Devin Williams, who is owed over $27 million over the next two seasons. Committing nearly $35 million annually to just two relievers wouldn't be an ideal allocation of resources.

While the Mets undoubtedly need to upgrade their bullpen this offseason, New York would be better served spreading that money across three relievers around $17 million AAV, as I outlined in a previous article.

There's no doubt the Mets need to make a splash this offseason. However, given the financial commitment and draft-pick compensation required, Morejon simply isn't the right fit.