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Forde-Yard Dash: Examining College Football’s Most Dangerous Trend

Wisconsin went from storming the field after beating USC to getting shut out by Iowa, showing how no team seems capable of staying comfortable for long this season.

Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell had briefly cooled his hot seat only to get shut out by Iowa. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where it’s time to put some respect on our dear friends the #CollegeKickers.

First Quarter: The Vanishing Difference Between Hero and Bum

In the epic World War II movie Patton, George C. Scott, playing the title character, delivered the following monologue (condensed here): “For over a thousand years Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of triumph, a tumultuous parade. … The conqueror rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. … A slave stood behind the conqueror holding a golden crown, and whispering in his ear a warning: That all glory is fleeting.”

After every big victory this football season, the winning coach needs an ops guy whispering the same warning in his ear. Because the likelihood is high that a massive flop is coming next. 

Alternatively, dishonor is fleeting, too. Coaches who have been fired in the court of public opinion are resuscitating their approval ratings on any given Saturday.

This is life in a sport that has seen 22 ranked teams lose to unranked opponents in September and October. Ten of those losses have come in the last two weekends alone—five on Oct. 24, five more on Halloween.

Consider the roller-coaster ride that is Wisconsin (1). A 4–1 start rallied the fan base behind embattled Luke Fickell. Then came the L.A. mood swings: a 17–7 loss to UCLA reignited grumbling; a 24–7 suffocation of No. 16 USC set off a field storm and earned the Badgers their first Top 25 ranking since 2023. Wisconsin (5–3) immediately took that momentum and threw it in the garbage, getting housed by unranked Iowa 30–0. (That makes the combined score of Kirk Ferentz vs. Fickell over the past four seasons 124–16 in favor of Ferentz. An utter mismatch.)

Iowa was knocked out of the Top 25 by Minnesota (2), another 5–3 team that has been all over the emotional map itself. A 25-point loss at home to Mississippi State seemed to signal serious trouble, but three straight wins thereafter turned P.J. Fleck into a celebratory dervish—wiping players’ blood on his face and chugging from the Little Brown Jug. At that point, the Gophers promptly collapsed into a heap, losing by 28 points to a Purdue team that hadn’t won a Big Ten game since 2023. But they rebounded to upset Iowa, then lost in overtime to the team that has spent the entire season living on the edge, Indiana. The reigning national champions are a play away from 8–0, and also about five plays away from 4–4.

Then there are the intertwined fates of two other Big Ten teams, Oregon (3) and USC (4). The Ducks quickly embraced adversity by losing to unranked Oklahoma State on Sept. 12, then looked more like their preseason top-five selves by easily beating the Trojans in L.A. Since that game, it’s been lose-win-lose-win, most recently taking down Flavor of the Month Northwestern to keep alive hopes of a backdoor entry into the Big Ten title game. Dare to dream.

The Trojans are still in that mix as well, despite the previously mentioned defeats to the Badgers and Ducks and the desire of many to fire their expensive coach. Upsetting No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday was a mood changer, even though it provoked strange responses from Lincoln Riley. 

Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork yells at USC head coach Lincoln Riley following their game on Saturday. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

In the Big 12, the fleeting glory has been breathtaking. BYU (5) stormed the field after beating Notre Dame, then watched Central Florida (6) do the same to the Cougars the following week. The Knights followed that up by being crushed at home Friday by a Baylor team that fired its coach five days earlier.

Cincinnati (7) had its own field storm after easily handing Texas Tech (8) its first loss of the season Oct. 24. Those same Nippert Stadium fans then got to watch the Bearcats being beaten to a pulp by Utah on Saturday—it was 42–6 at halftime and 49–25 at the final gun. Scott Satterfield’s move off the hot seat didn’t last long. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders rebounded to cool off Arizona, with well-traveled emergency transfer QB Thomas Castellanos jumping into the starting lineup and outplaying trendy Heisman Trophy candidate Noah Fifita with the game on the line. Turns out Cody Campbell didn’t even have to fire anyone.

As all this has been playing out, agents of chaos have arisen from the ashes to shake up the SEC and ACC, while solidifying shaky job status.

South Carolina (9) is suddenly a juggernaut. After a 2–3 start that seemed to seal Shane Beamer’s fate, the Gamecocks romped past ranked Florida on the road, upset ranked Tennessee at home and then embarrassed Oklahoma on the road. (The Sooners’ offseason contract extension for Brent Venables continues to live in infamy. Hard to explain away two blowout home losses to South Carolina in the last three seasons. Former Oklahoma and current Denver Broncos star Nik Bonitto certainly doesn’t want to hear any excuses.)

Beamer’s standing is improved in large part because his quarterback has rediscovered how to play the position. LaNorris Sellers, at one time considered a high-end first-round NFL draft pick, struggled through September after struggling most of last year. Sellers has accounted for 13 touchdowns and 1,002 yards of total offense in the three-game winning streak, his best stretch of SEC play since 2024.

South Carolina is still well outside playoff contention, but nobody in the SEC wants to play it right now. The Gamecocks should be 7–3 when Georgia comes to Columbia, S.C., at which point things could become improbably real.

After an 0–4 ACC start, Syracuse (10) has taken on the dream killer role. The Orange rallied dramatically to win at North Carolina on Oct. 24, stopping the Tar Heels’ unexpected momentum from the first half of the season. Then they ended No. 19 SMU’s four-game winning streak in another thriller. Syracuse has helped clear a path for a Miami–Wake Forest rematch in the ACC championship game.

Fran Brown went from rising star after a 10–3 debut season to under scrutiny after a 3–9 follow-up to serious heat after the 2–4 start this year. Things have changed the last two weeks, in no small part due to having quarterback Steve Angeli available. With the Notre Dame transfer in the lineup the last two seasons, Syracuse is 5–3. When he’s been out with injury, Syracuse is 1–10. Hard to find someone whose presence has meant more to the bottom-line success of a program (and job security of his coach).

Dash Playoff Bracket 

Each week, The Dash selects and seeds the 12 teams who belong in the College Football Playoff as if today were Selection Sunday. This week takes on extra gravity, with the first CFP selection committee rankings rolling out Tuesday.

The Field 

  1. Miami (8–0)
  2. Georgia (7–1) 
  3. UCLA (8–0)
  4. Utah (8–0)
  5. Kentucky (7–1)
  6. Indiana (8–1)
  7. BYU (7–1)
  8. Notre Dame (7–1)
  9. Wake Forest (7–1)
  10. Texas (6–2)
  11. Ohio State (6–2) 
  12. UTSA (7–1) 

Also considered: Texas Tech, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, USC, Iowa, Houston, New Mexico, North Texas, Boise State.

First round 

  • No. 12 UTSA at No. 5 Kentucky 
  • No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 Indiana
  • No. 10 Texas at No. 7 BYU
  • No. 9 Wake Forest at No. 8 Notre Dame 

Quarterfinals 

  • Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Utah vs. winner of No. 12 UTSA at No. 5 Kentucky
  • Rose Bowl: No. 3 UCLA vs. winner of No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 Indiana
  • Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. winner of No. 10 Texas at No. 7 BYU
  • Peach Bowl: No. 1 Miami vs. winner of No. 9 Wake Forest at No. 8 Notre Dame

PODCAST: Listen to Sports Illustrated’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, hosted by Pat Forde, on Apple and. Watch the show on SI’s college YouTube channel or on SI TV.

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