It felt like Freddy Peralta had recouped much of what he had lost following his disastrous first half with the New York Mets by dominating with the Tampa Bay Rays. He was the AL Pitcher of the Month in September, and pitched so well in the ALCS that he won the MVP honors for that series. He entered his first-ever World Series start with a sparkling 1.08 postseason ERA.

It goes without saying that he didn't look anything close to a 1.08 ERA pitcher when matched up against his former team, the Milwaukee Brewers, in Game 3, as he allowed five runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings with three walks. Given how poorly he pitched in the biggest of moments, it's fair to assume he lost himself quite a bit of money when he's set to hit free agency this winter.

Freddy Peralta looked a lot like the Mets version of himself when it mattered most

The results with the Rays were night and day when comparing his results with the Mets, but the expected stats were awfully similar. Peralta was essentially getting much better batted-ball luck, and the tweet below from right before his first postseason start pretty much sums it up.

He has made some adjustments with the Rays, for sure. He's been throwing his changeup more and was pitching exclusively from the stretch, and those things seemed to help. With that being said, it felt clear that regression was coming. Not only has his location been off, but his strikeout rate has only dipped as the year has progressed. It's really hard to be effective without generating whiffs, especially when you're not a ground-ball pitcher, and Peralta proved that and then some when it mattered most.

This reality is only going to cost him when he hits the open market this winter.

Freddy Peralta has one of the most fascinating free agency cases this offseason

Freddy Peralta was one of the most reliable starters in the National League for several years, but MLB is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of league. When Peralta was with the Mets, it felt as if he had tanked his value so far to the point where he was going to have to settle for a one-year, prove-it kind of deal. With the Rays, he was pitching so well that perhaps he was going to earn a nine-figure contract and get the long-term security he likely covets. Spotrac's projection had him at a seven-year deal worth over $201 million.

For reference, Dylan Cease signed a seven-year, $210 million just last offseason, and most people thought that was an overpay after he had a down year in 2025. The odds of Peralta securing that kind of contract right before a lockout felt slim to me even before this start, but now, how can any team justify such an expenditure?

One start shouldn't make or break a player's free agency, so if Peralta was going to get a nine-figure deal from a team before Monday, that offer will likely still be there after. I wouldn't be stunned if that happened, given his track record, a relatively weak free-agent market and the fact that he is ineligible for the qualifying offer. But I also wouldn't be stunned if he had to settle for something shorter-term after a mostly brutal contract year.

I don't know much, but I do know that his World Series outing hurt his odds of making anything close to what Cease got last winter.