Cal coach Tosh Lupoi did not reveal on Tuesday who the Bears’ starting quarterback will be in Saturday’s game at 23rd-ranked SMU, but it would be a shock if it’s not Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

Of course, it was a surprise this past Saturday when Jackson Brousseau started against Wake Forest when Sagapolutele was available. But the choice seems fairly obvious this week because the situation is a bit different.

“I’m going to put the individual I think is going to be best for us to go win the game coming up this Saturday,” Lupoi said Tuesday when asked who would be the Bears' starting quarterback  “You’ll see who’s out there based on my decision on who’s going to put us in the best position to go win the game.”

That’s a non-committal answer, but this will be the first week in which Lupoi’s decision will be based entirely on the merits of the two quarterback options, Sagapolutele and Brousseau.

Lupoi had no decision to make two weeks ago, when Sagapolutele was not deemed healthy enough to play, forcing Brousseau into a starting job. And Brousseau played well in the Bears’ 25-20 victory over Virginia Tech.

When Lupoi had to decide between Brousseau and Sagapolutele for the Wake Forest game, Sagapolutele was not declared available to play until Friday of last week, and the Bears (3-4, 2-2 ACC) did not want to wait until the last minute to prepare a quarterback to start.

“The preparation leading into the game plays a big role of who can play and put us in the best position for success,” Lupoi said. “After Jackson led us to a victory, as well as the following week who’s available for preparation and who’s available for the game.”

So after Brousseau played well in the second half against UNLV and the entire game against Virginia Tech, combined with the fact that Lupoi knew early last week that Brousseau would be available against Wake Forest while Sagapolutele’s status remained in question, Lupoi opted to go with Brousseau so he could be the one preparing throughout last week to face Wake Forest.

Brousseau said after Saturday’s game that he was told on Monday, two days after the Virginia Tech game, that he would start against Wake Forest. At that point Cal could design a game plan to fit Brousseau’s strengths instead of being unsure of whether Sagapolutele (concussion) would play.

It could be argued that Sagapolutele is familiar enough with the Cal offense and knew enough about the game plan against Wake Forest to be placed into the starting role at a moment’s notice. But that's a different issue.

In any case, it’s different this week. Both quarterbacks apparently entered this week available to play against the Mustangs, which is why it is assumed that Sagapolutele will be the starter in Saturday morning’s game in Dallas (9 a.m. Pacific time kickoff, 11 a.m. Dallas time).

It is Sagapolutele who came into the season as the Bears’ star, a player projected to be a first-round pick in the 2028 NFL draft.  He has not performed as well as expected this season, but his arm talent is still evident.

And after Brousseau struggled in the 41-7 loss to Wake Forest with just 81 passing yards and no points in nearly three quarters of playing, the momentum Brousseau had brought to the Cal offense had stopped.

Sagapolutele entered the game late in the third quarter, and although Wake Forest was playing a loose, unaggressive defense with backups in the game while holding a 41-0 lead, Sagapolutele played well in his first experience with Pat McCann calling the offensive plays.

Sagapolutele was 15-for-18 for 110 yards and a touchdown, albeit, as we noted, against an apathetic defense.

For the season Sagapolutele has a significantly better passer rating of 137.40 compared with Brousseau’s 119.82. And Sagapolutele had been working with plays called by Jordan Somerville instead of McCann, who started calling plays when Brousseau entered the UNLV game in the second half.

So it seems Lupoi has little choice but to start Sagapolutele against SMU (5-1, 3-1 ACC).

It is suspected that Lupoi might have already made his decision about a starting quarterback for Saturday’s game but sees no reason to reveal his choice to the upcoming opponent.

If Sagapolutele is the starter as expected, he will have his work cut out for him.  SMU leads the ACC in passing defense, allowing 164.8 passing yards per game. However, a better indicator of a team’s effectiveness in defending the pass is passer rating defense. The Mustangs ranks only fifth in the ACC in that category and are virtually tied with North Carolina, which ranks sixth.

In any case, Cal will be a substantial underdog to SMU, which has not lost a conference home game since 2022 and is 10-0 in conference home games since joining the ACC prior to the 2024 season.

Cal is a 19.5-point underdog against SMU as of Tuesday according to FanDuel and DraftKings, even though the Mustangs have not won any game this season by more than 10 points.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.