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Dodgers Insider Speculates LA Will Only Sign Tarik Skubal Under One Condition

Skubal could remain in Los Angeles, but it may be on the Dodgers' terms.

Sep 3, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the top destination for some of the league's best players over the last few years.

Last season alone, the Dodgers landed two of the best free agents in Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker. Los Angeles remains a premier destination, and despite not winning their third consecutive title this year, they'll hope to still have the pull to add the game's biggest stars.

The Dodgers are expected to be in the running for the league's top free agents, including their own free agent and the best on the open market in Tarik Skubal.

The 29-year-old is set to potentially earn more than $400 million this free agency. The Dodgers can likely afford Skubal, but it will require a historical financial commitment.

The Dodgers are expected to be in the mix, but The Athletic's Katie Woo noted that one contract condition could play a significant role: whether or not Skubal is open to a shorter-term, high AAV deal.

"Given what we know about the Dodgers, given the financial uncertainty from the CBA expiring and whatever is going on with Mark Walter, and how Andrew Friedman operates in general, I can't see Andrew stomaching a 10-year, $400 million contract if it gets up that high," Woo said on DMac and Reiter on 97.1 The Fan. "It wouldn't align with what he's been saying for the last couple of years of making sure that this competitive window is extended."

"The only way I see the Dodgers being really aggressive," she continued, "is if Skubal is willing to take a deal similar to the structure and the concept like Kyle Tucker."

Instead of Tucker signing a 10-year mega deal, he traded long-term security for a record-breaking, short-term, high AAV contract.

His four-year, $240 million deal comes with an average annual value of $60 million and a record-setting net present value. It also has an opt out after the second year, allowing him to test free agency again after the 2027 season.

If Skubal can see eye-to-eye on that type of deal — with a record-setting AAV and opt outs but no long-term security — then the Dodgers will likely have a great chance at landing the two-time Cy Young winner.

Insiders and analysts have predicted Skubal's next contract to land between $350 and $500 million, depending on the deal's length and structure.

If that were to be the case, Skubal would shatter Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers and potentially Max Scherzer’s AAV record of $43.3 million.

Time will tell if Skubal has the Dodgers as a preferred destination. If so, they will be one of the few teams with the financial muscle to pull off such a deal.

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