With the calendar now flipped to November, the NFL is entering the push to the playoffs.

So it is the perfect time to start looking at how the playoff picture is shaping up.

Week 8 of the NFL season delivered some surprises, and as such some team are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason. And with a big game on tap for Monday Night Football, the playoff picture might look even more different come Tuesday morning.

Let’s dive in.

Here is how the AFC standings look, with all AFC teams now finished for Week 8.

1. Buffalo Bills (6-1)
2. Denver Broncos (6-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
7. New England Patriots (5-3)

8. Cleveland Browns (5-3)
9. Las Vegas Raiders (4-4)
10. Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
11. Houston Texans (2-5)
12. New York Jets (2-6)
13. Indianapolis Colts (2-6)
14. Miami Dolphins (1-6)
15. Tennessee Titans (1-7)
16. Los Angeles Chargers (0-7)

We can start at the bottom and work up, as things are rather self-explanatory until we reach the Jets and the Colts. Those two teams have matching records, but right now the Jets are ahead of the Colts as New York has a 2-3 record in conference play, while Indianaplis is just 1-5 in AFC games.

Either way the Jets are winners, as they control the Colts’ first-round pick thanks to the Sauce Gardner trade.

The Raiders and the Ravens have matching 4-4 records, but Las Vegas has a 3-3 conference record, while Baltimore is just 2-3 in AFC games so far this year.

The Patriots and the Browns have matching 5-3 records, but New England’s 5-1 AFC record has them in the No. 7 spot right now, while Cleveland’s 3-3 record in conference games has them on the outside looking in. Then the Broncos, who moved into first place in the AFC West with Sunday’s win over Kansas City, take the No. 2 spot from the Steelers. While both teams are 6-2, Denver is 3-1 in the AFC, while Pittsburgh is 3-2.

Here are the hypothetical playoff matchups, if the AFC playoffs started today:

What is the NFC playoff picture?

Here is the state of play in the NFC.

1. San Francisco 49ers (6-1)
2. Minnesota Vikings (6-1)
3. New York Giants (4-2-1)
4. Carolina Panthers (3-4)
5. Detroit Lions (5-2)
6. Chicago Bears (5-2)
7. Green Bay Packers (5-3)

8. Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
9. Los Angeles Rams (4-4)
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
11. Atlanta Falcons (3-5)
12. Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
13. Dallas Cowboys (3-5)
14. Washington Commanders (2-4-1)
15. New Orleans Saints (2-5)
16. Philadelphia Eagles (2-6)

Let’s start with the cluster of four 3-5 teams.

Under the NFL tiebreaking procedures, first you apply division tiebreakers to eliminate all but the highest-ranked team in each division. The Buccaneers beat the Falcons, so they have the tiebreaker, so that brings the process down to Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Dallas for the next step. Then both Tampa Bay and now Arizona have wins over the Cowboys, so that leaves the Buccaneers and the Cardinals.

Tampa Bay gets the nod right now thanks to a 3-2 record in the NFC, compared to a 2-4 conference record for the Cardinals.

Atlanta slots into the No. 11 spot in a three-way fight with Arizona and Dallas. The Falcons’ 3-3 NFC record is better than both Arizona (2-4) and Dallas (2-4).

Arizona slots in at No. 12 thanks to Sunday’s win over the Cowboys, who then slide into the No. 13 spot.

Things are a bit more straightforward among the seven teams currently in the playoffs. San Francisco takes the No. 1 spot over Minnesota thanks to a better Strength of Victory (.456 for San Francisco vs. .400 for Minnesota), because both teams have a 4-1 record in conference play, and they have not played enough common opponents as of yet.

The Lions hold the No. 5 spot over Chicago thanks to a better record in division games (2-0 for Detroit, 0-2 for Chicago).

Here are the hypothetical NFC playoff matchups if the playoffs started today:

Monday night’s game between Chicago and Seattle is ripe with playoff implications, even this early in the season.

Not only could it set up a potential tiebreaker advantage for the winning team, but if the Bears were to win, it would bump them up to No. 5 in the NFC standings. A loss would drop Chicago into a three-way tie with the Packers and the Seahawks. Then, working through the tiebreakers, the Bears would drop out of the head-to-head with the Packers (as Chicago lost to Green Bay), and the Packers would slot in at No. 6 thanks to a better conference record (4-3 for Green Bay vs. 2-2 for Seattle. But the Seahawks would now be the No. 7 team, thanks to a win over Chicago, and the Bears would drop to No. 8.

But a Bears win would drop Seattle to 4-4, and they would drop behind the Rams to No. 9, thanks to a 1-3 record in NFC games (versus a 2-2 record for the Rams).