Retour
The Wisconsin Badgers return to Madison on Saturday, Oct. 24, for a primetime showdown against No. 15 USC.
The Wisconsin Badgers return to Madison on Saturday, Oct. 24, for a primetime showdown against No. 15 USC.
USC is fresh off a bye week, while Wisconsin made the West Coast trip to UCLA, where they fell at the Rose Bowl, 17-7.
It was an embarrassing offensive performance for Luke Fickell's squad, yet somehow they hung in there against a team that has now cracked the top 10 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.
With Week 7 rapidly approaching, Badgers Wire's Jordon Lawrenz had a chance to speak with Trojans Wire's Matt Zemek ahead of the Big Ten matchup.
The lesson of the Lincoln Riley era at USC is not to expect the Trojans to do anything the easy way. They did win at Penn State, which marks real improvement for a program that has consistently struggled to win Big Ten road games under Riley. However, that's a low bar. We can all see how mediocre Penn State is. The Nittany Lions lost to Michigan after losing to USC. The Trojans have a below-average defense, and so USC might be the get-right tonic for Wisconsin's offense. Should USC be favored? Probably, based on its eight-point win at Penn State. Does this mean the Trojans will get the job done? Hardly. This feels like a very close game, but whether USC wins or loses, don't expect the Trojans to have a smooth evening with no bumps in the road. It's not how they have historically operated on the road under Lincoln Riley.
USC did need a week off. Not only does an off week give players a chance to rest, but in USC's case, the Trojans had played on seven consecutive weekends dating all the way back to August 29. When a team plays on that many consecutive weekends, it really needs a break. The key player USC is likely to get back for the Wisconsin game is tight end Mark Bowman. He has potential as a downfield pass catcher, but he is already a very good blocker who adds structure and balance to the USC offense. The Trojans were missing something when he was out the past few weeks. Trent Mosley is a more important player, but Bowman is right behind him in terms of value to USC's offense and quarterback Jayden Maiava. There are some defensive players who have a chance to get healthy during the off week, but the defense is a lot weaker than the offense. It's more important for the offense to be able to max out. That's where the off week can help USC more.
Jayden Maiava gets a B+. This might be a harsh grade, given that Maiava can't be blamed too much for the problems of the defense, but it remains that USC did not score 30 points against either Oregon or Washington. Maiava was solid against Oregon, but erratic against Washington. He has generally been very, very good. He played well at Penn State. However, for me to give an A to a USC quarterback requires that he rises to the moment in all the big games and all the defining situations a quarterback faces. He didn't do that against Oregon, so I have to limit him to a B+. I am holding him to a very high standard, because I think he's better than Dante Moore of Oregon and Arch Manning of Texas, among others. If he wants the highest possible grade, he will need to beat Ohio State or Indiana for sure.
This is a must-win for Lincoln Riley with the brutal schedule ahead. USC will have a tough time beating Ohio State, Indiana, and UCLA. The Trojans have to finish 10-2 to make the playoff and convince everyone they are back where they belong in the college football world. Until they do that, they are an unproven team and a failed program. Beating Wisconsin is absolutely necessary to save Lincoln Riley's job. A loss here means USC could easily finish 8-4, which is nowhere near good enough for the program, the administration, and most of all, the fans. A loss here would have the pitchforks out for Riley. He would go into the Ohio State-Indiana gauntlet in huge trouble, and the roof could cave in on him. A loss to Wisconsin is an absolute and unmitigated disaster for the Trojans.
USC's main advantage is at quarterback. Maiava versus Colton Joseph is a mismatch. UCLA absolutely smothered Joseph and the rest of the Wisconsin offense. Maiava plays for Lincoln Riley, one of the best quarterback coaches in modern times, and has been above average on a consistent basis this season, the Washington game being the one primary exception. This is where USC has to create separation from Wisconsin. Maiava playing up to his standard, or even close to it, will give USC the clear upper hand. Wisconsin will need Maiava to have an off night in order to pull off the upset.
USC 27, Wisconsin 20. USC doesn't blow out Big Ten opponents on the road at night, but Wisconsin just isn't in a position to score enough to overcome a much more talented USC team.