Kimi Antonelli’s third-place finish in Singapore two weekends ago has handed the Italian the chance to become Formula One’s youngest world champion as early as Austin this weekend.

It remains an outside chance, requiring Antonelli to win at the Circuit of the Americas and both his nearest rivals George Russell and Lewis Hamilton – who he outscored in Singapore – to slip up. But it could happen. If he does not get it done in Texas – the sixth from last race of the season – the 20-year-old is likely to be crowned in either Mexico or Brazil instead, as the opportunities to cut into his lead are reduced round by round.

The maths is complicated by question marks over the final two races of the season, either or both of which could yet be cancelled because of the conflict in the Middle East, with Imola standing by instead. But one way or another, Antonelli is likely to be crowned champion in the next few weeks.

What does Antonelli need to win the title?

There are, in theory, six races of the season remaining. With 25 points available for a win, that means a maximum of 150 points available to any one driver as we head to Austin.

With a 102-point lead over Mercedes team-mate Russell in the standings, and a 111-point lead over Ferrari’s Hamilton, Antonelli has an outside chance of getting the job done in Texas.

He would need a lead of at least 125 points after Sunday’s race to be crowned champion this weekend. That means he needs to win the race, with Russell finishing ninth or lower and Hamilton finishing fifth or lower.

Fail to do that and Antonelli would need at least a 100-point lead after the Mexico race to be crowned there, or a 75-point lead after Brazil, and so on and so on.

What happens if the final double-header is cancelled?

If the final two races end up being called off because of the Middle East conflict, Imola has been lined up as a fallback.

It would change the maths though. It would mean there are only a maximum of 125 points left this season. That would make it easier for Antonelli to be crowned champion.

Where the Italian is crowned would depend entirely on when the races are cancelled. There is a nightmare scenario whereby Antonelli could win this weekend, then be crowned by press release when the final double-header is called off some time next week. But F1 is desperate for that not to happen. The optics would be terrible.

It should not come to that. The likelihood is that Antonelli will have the championship tied up in Austin, Mexico or Brazil before F1 has to make a call on the final double-header.

What happens after the US midterm elections on November 3, whether there is a resumption of US attacks on Iran and possible reprisals against its allies in the region, is likely to be decisive in that context.

What does George Russell need to win it?

Russell needs to stay within 125 points of Antonelli after this weekend, 100 points after Mexico, 75 after Brazil, 50 after Las Vegas and 25 after Qatar, to be in with a chance of claiming his maiden world title. That is assuming the final two races go ahead.

The same maths applies to anyone else interested in winning this year’s title, which in theory includes both the Ferraris of Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, plus Red Bull’s Max Verstappen and McLaren’s Lando Norris. All are currently within 150 points of Antonelli. But their chances are vanishingly small and some, if not all of them, can be ruled out this weekend.