Jamaica will look to take control of their Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal when they welcome defending champions Mexico to the National Stadium in Kingston in the early hours of Sunday.

The Reggae Boyz finished second in League A Group B after two wins, a draw and a defeat in four group games, while the visitors entered at this stage as the top seed, but they arrive winless in four games under new head coach Rafael Marquez.

Match preview

Jamaica secured their place in the last eight with a 1-1 draw away to Honduras, and have climbed two places to 69th in the latest FIFA rankings. 

Interim head coach Rudolph Speid’s side opened the group with a 3-2 home win over Guatemala, with substitute Renaldo Cephas scoring in stoppage time. 

They then lost 1-0 at home to 10-man Honduras, ending a 13-year winless run for the visitors against Jamaica, before Javon East’s brace sealed a 2-0 win at El Salvador, leaving the Reggae Boyz with six goals scored and four conceded in four group matches.

Speid is in the middle of a youth rebuild, and Jamaica have also lost two of their last four home games, while they have not won any of their last six meetings against Mexico (W4, D2), including a 1-0 win at the 2024 Copa America courtesy of Gerardo Arteaga’s 69th-minute goal. 

Jamaica did hold Mexico to a 1-1 draw in Kingston in 2022 and led twice in a 2-2 draw at the Estadio Azteca in 2023.

Mexico have not looked like World Cup quarter-finalists since they were knocked out by England in the round of 16 and Javier Aguirre was replaced by Marquez. 

The new boss’s first four games, all friendlies in the United States, brought 1-1 draws with Colombia and Peru before a 3-0 defeat to the USMNT and a 2-0 loss to Chile, scoring two goals and conceding seven across the four matches.

El Tri have also lost their last two away quarterfinals in this competition, though the head-to-head record in this fixture still heavily favours them, having won 21 of 29 previous meetings and lost only three.

There is plenty at stake, as the winners over two legs reach the 2027 Nations League Final Four and qualify automatically for the 2027 Gold Cup, while the losers drop into the Gold Cup preliminary round. 

Jamaica CONCACAF Nations League form:

Jamaica form (all competitions):

Mexico form (all competitions):

Team News

Jamaica have several important absentees, as Wrexham striker Bailey Cadamarteri has been left out so he can get minutes at club level, while QPR’s Rumarn Burrell and Coventry’s Ephron Mason-Clark are injured, the latter having hurt himself in training last Thursday. 

Kaheem Parris is also out injured, while Leon Bailey, Ian Fray and Di’Shon Bernard missed out over match-fitness concerns, as all three have only recently returned from injury. 

Ethan Pinnock also misses out, as Miguel Freckleton comes into the squad at left centre-half.

Andre Blake leads a 23-man squad that includes Damion Lowe, Joel Latibeaudiere, Javon East, Renaldo Cephas and Tyreece Campbell.

Mexico have called up 28 players, and Julian Quinones returns after scoring four goals at the World Cup, while Alexis Vega is also back after hinting at international retirement. ‘

Jesus “Tecatito” Corona returns for the first time since June 2022, and Osijek striker Armando Leon has his first senior call-up.

Raul Jimenez is out after knee surgery, while 18-year-old Gilberto Mora has recovered from the injury that forced him out of the last camp.

Jamaica possible starting lineup:

Blake; Lowe, King, Freckleton, Webster; Anderson, Ming, Clarke; East, Dixon, Campbell

Mexico possible starting lineup:

Padilla; Alvarez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Lira, Romo, Sanchez; Alvarado, Gimenez, Quinones

We say: Jamaica 1-2 Mexico

Jamaica are dangerous at home and Mexico’s recent form is poor, so the hosts should score. 

However, Speid’s side are missing several players and El Tri should have enough to edge the first leg and take a narrow advantage back to Monterrey.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.