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HENDERSON, Nev.--The Las Vegas Raiders (4-4) face the San Francisco 49ers (6-1) this weekend.
But with the NFL season halfway over and the NFL trade deadline on the horizon, I decided to put the 2026 rookie class under the microscope, and I asked some of my NFL buddies to help me evaluate them.
I will never forget the first time I had a test that was graded on a curve. I had never seen that before, and I was in an advanced high school class, so I was grateful.
I had studied and was sure I had failed, only to find out my low, and, to be honest, terrible grade was higher, significantly higher because of a curve.
I learned an important lesson that day: the terms the grader uses matter as much as what they grade.
Several years ago, I asked four NFL executives to explain their paradigm for evaluating and grading rookies, and then combined them into my scale.
Let me break it down for you.
The reality is that not all NFL rookies are created equal, and whether you are picked and how much you're paid does matter. But you are always looking for the obscure player who becomes the unexpected dog.
First-round QBs are not the norm (explained later), and injuries can change things, as you will see with one Raiders rookie.
There are consistent sets of expectations that are tied to draft capital, that pretty consistently remain close or the same among all of the NFL franchises, and they break down into five distinct tiers:
• Top 10 Picks: These folks, fairly or not, have enormous immediate impact expectations. Expected to be immediate day-one starters and franchise cornerstones. The exception is quarterbacks, who are sometimes given time to sit if a veteran is in place.
• One NFL GM told me, “You fail here, and your franchise is set back for five years. You can’t fail. If you are picking here and you aren’t willing to bet your (private part) that you are correct, you trade out."
• Rest of Round 1 (Picks 11–32): Expected to start by midseason or contribute heavily in key packages, eventually proving to be above-average starters.
• Another GM said, “A first-round failure outside of the top ten still hurts. It is brutal. The first round is a place I never gamble. I’ve had success because I will not reach; I pick, move up, down, or out, but I never guess.” He has won big in the NFL.
• Rounds 2–3 (Day 2): Expected to be core rotational contributors immediately and locked-in starters by year two.
• An NFL GM described this group as, “Your bread and butter. I love the percentages of these guys that get second contracts, and the best teams make their living here.” He added, “There are so many bad drafting teams in our league now that these picks are like gold, and you get first-round guys every year here, if there is enough talent, to make a living.”
• Another GM said, “I would almost rather have more day two picks than day one. We have such a great NFL Draft team, and you get the guys who you win with, don’t have to pay too much, and they all are motivated because they think, and many know, they should have gone day one.”
• Rounds 4–5 (Early Day 3): Expected to make the 53-man roster, play key special teams roles, and provide positional depth, though high-value positions like running back or interior offensive line can start earlier.
• Per one GM, “Bad drafting in round one should be, and usually is, immediate grounds for getting fired. Great picks in rounds four and five is where you become a legend. The best organizations spend lots of money and find the guys here that bring big wins.” He added, “On our team we often say you can win praise in round one, but rounds four and five are where you build dynasties.”
• Rounds 6–7 (Late Day 3): Considered developmental projects or special teamers, where simply winning a roster spot over an undrafted free agent is a success. You hope these guys make the practice squad, and your coaches can turn them into something.
• One GM said, “This is where the assistant position coaches, the young QC (quality control) kids get noticed. Getting picked here is basically a UDFA who does one thing really well, but not multiple so he moves up. Young coaches find their way here.”
The Indiana Hoosier has the Raiders brass more excited about him today than the day they picked him. He is impossible to grade, as he is sitting behind Kirk Cousins. But the young man that NFL executives ranked as the best QB prospect of the last four years has met or exceeded every thought and hope, and as a man who covered Matthew Stafford in his rookie year, I can tell you he looks, acts, and performs like the superstar the Raiders think he can be.
Already a starter, he is way ahead of schedule. He has tremendous physical skills, but his ability to take expert coaching has set him apart.
The raw youngster showed some interesting skills, but was placed on season-ending injured reserve in August with an Achilles injury.
One of the smartest football players in a rookie class made up of smart football players, he has already started, and not because of an emergency with an injury. Can play all five offensive line positions and is the absolute real deal.
According to the grading criteria, he is right on target, and when you add his recovery from a major injury, the man everyone had as the best CB in the NFL Draft is on track.
Already a major contributor, Mike Washington Jr. (MWJ) may be the biggest steal of this draft class early and is a rising star who plays with no fear, other than what his size, speed, and power inflict when he comes at you in a downfield, north-south posture.
Grade: C
He made the 53-man roster and has shown brief flashes. He has impressed people with his ability to take coaching and to be coachable. He appears right on schedule, and based on the criteria, he is doing what is expected.
The young man isn’t a finished product and shouldn’t be. But he has started half of the Raiders' games and is a major contributor. He is far ahead of expectations, showing developing skill sets that speak highly of the coaching he is getting and his football acumen for taking it.
The sixth-rounder has played in seven regular-season games, is a key contributor, and, while not showing the flash we saw in the preseason, his presence and impact are evident. The growth needed to make the step into the starting lineup is clear. Still, nothing suggests anything other than top upside, but he has already overachieved based on the grading criteria.
The young man has shown some interesting flashes with his skill set, but as a seventh-round pick, he is on the practice squad, and the outlook for his future is very bright. Reps on the scout team are vital, but the hope and expectation are that he will take a significant step this offseason.
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