The NFL is the most unpredictable sports league on the planet, and we got a good taste of that in Week 7 with TWO undefeated teams going down (49ers and Chiefs). 

Last week, we had those two teams projected to land the top seeds in the AFC and NFC, but our projection has now been turned upside down. So who's going to earn the top seed in each conference? Glad you asked. 

To help us figure out, we had our analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulate the rest of the 2026 season. There are 165 games left on the regular-season schedule, along with 13 playoff games, and Oh simulated all of them. Not only did he project all eight division winners and the 14 playoff teams, but he also crowned a Super Bowl champion. 

With that in mind, let's get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we're projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings. 

Projected AFC playoff field

The AFC playoff projection underwent some massive changes this week. Thanks to the Chiefs' loss in Week 7, the Bills are now projected to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. 

Here's the projected AFC playoff field (with each team's current record): 
1. Bills (5-1) -- AFC East champion
2. Chiefs (5-1) -- AFC West champion
3. Jaguars (4-2) -- AFC South champion
4. Bengals (4-2) -- AFC North champion
5. Broncos (4-2)
6. Steelers (5-2)
7. Ravens (4-3)
JUST MISSED: Patriots (4-3), Browns (5-2)

Besides the Bills moving up to the top, the other notable change here is that the Bengals are now projected to win the AFC North. The Bengals made history in Week 7 by becoming the first team in 75 years to win a game by at least 20 points after trailing by at least 13 points at halftime. One thing working in the Bengals' favor is their schedule. They only have to play one more road game against a team that currently has a winning record (Browns in Week 13). 

Speaking of the Browns, they haven't won a division title since 1989, and our computer model doesn't see that drought ending this year. Our projection has them finishing 8-9 and out of the playoffs. 

Projected NFC playoff field

Last week, the 49ers were projected to get the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, but after San Francisco's loss, that honor now belongs to the Vikings, who just happen to be the only undefeated team left in the NFL. 

Here's the projected NFC playoff field (with each team's current record): 
1. Vikings (6-0) -- NFC North champion
2. 49ers (6-1) -- NFC West champion
3. Falcons (3-4) -- NFC South champion
4. Cowboys (3-4) -- NFC East champion
5. Lions (4-2)
6. Seahawks (4-3)
7. Bears (5-2) 
JUST MISSED: Packers (4-3), Rams (3-4)

Besides the Vikings moving up to the top, the other notable change here is that the Cowboys are now projected to win the NFC East. This marks the first time all season that we've had the Cowboys projected to finish at the top of the division. Our model basically views the NFC East as a two-horse race between the Cowboys and Giants, with Dallas given a 38.5% chance to win the division and the Giants RIGHT behind them at 37.3%. One thing working in the Cowboys' favor is that they have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule. 

Based on the current NFL playoff standings, the NFC North has ALL FOUR TEAMS in the playoffs heading into Week 8, but our projection doesn't think that will hold. For that to happen, the NFC North would have to earn all three wild card spots, but we have the Seahawks getting in, which means one NFC North team will be staying at home come playoff time. In this case, that's the Packers. Sorry, cheeseheads. 

Wild card round

AFC

• (2) Chiefs 26-20 over (7) Ravens. You know you're going to be in for a crazy wild card round when you get Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson to start off the postseason, and that's what we're getting here. This would be just the second time these two teams have squared off in the postseason — along with the 2023 AFC title game — and the Chiefs come out on top, just like the first time. 
  
• (3) Jaguars 25-20 over (6) Steelers. The Jaguars have only four playoff wins over the past 20 years, and somehow half of those have come against the Steelers (2007, 2017). It's like the Jags just have their number in the playoffs, and they manage to beat them once again here.  
• (5) Broncos 24-23 over (4) Bengals. The only AFC upset in the wild card round happens in Cincinnati, where the Broncos end up topping the Bengals in a thriller. The Broncos' defense keeps Joe Burrow in check, which allows Denver to pull off the upset. 

NFC

• (2) 49ers 27-24 over (7) Bears. These two teams played during the 2025 regular season with the 49ers winning a wild one 42-38. This time around, both teams actually play some defense, but the 49ers still come out on top. 
• (6) Seahawks 24-21 over (3) Falcons. There is only one NFC team that has beaten the Seahawks MULTIPLE times in the playoffs over the past 15 years, and that's the Falcons. The Seahawks have a 0-2 postseason record against the Falcons in that span, but they get their revenge here. 
  
• (5) Lions 33-30 over (4) Cowboys. The highest-scoring game of the wild-card round goes down in Dallas, where the Cowboys see another season end in disappointment. Every NFC team has made it to the NFC title game since 2010, except the Cowboys, and their drought continues here. For the Lions, this would be their first road playoff win of the Super Bowl era. 

And now, we're down to our final eight teams. 

Divisional round

AFC

• (1) Bills 26-20 over (5) Broncos. Last season, the Broncos ended Buffalo's season with one of the wildest playoff wins in recent postseason history, but that game was played in Denver. This year, the game is played in Buffalo, and the Bills get their revenge.  
• (2) Chiefs 23-21 over (3) Jaguars. Over the past 10 years, the Jaguars have made the playoffs three times, and in those three seasons, they were eliminated by Tom Brady (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2022), and Josh Allen (2025). It's hard to get to the Super Bowl when quarterbacks like that are standing in your way, and Mahomes once again crushes Jacksonville's dreams. 

NFC

• (1) Vikings 20-17 over (6) Seahawks. This game would feature two of the best defenses in the NFL going at it, and no one would be surprised if the final score was 9-6. However, our computer model does think there will be at least a little bit of offense in this game, with the Vikings coming out on top and ending Seattle's hopes of repeating as Super Bowl champs.   
• (2) 49ers 29-28 over (5) Lions. In a rematch of the 2023 NFC title game, the Lions fly out to San Francisco looking to get some revenge, but in the end, they leave with even more pain after suffering a one-point loss to the 49ers.  

If you're scoring at home, we are now down to four teams: Two teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Bills and Vikings) and two teams (49ers and Chiefs) that have faced each other in two of the past seven Super Bowls. 

Conference title games

AFC Championship

• (1) Bills 28-23 over (2) Chiefs. In four of the past six years, the Bills have had their season ended by the Chiefs in the playoffs. Josh Allen is 0-4 against Patrick Mahomes in the postseason, but he finally gets his revenge here. With the game being played in Buffalo, the Bills Mafia goes crazy as they celebrate the team's first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years. 

NFC Championship

• (1) Vikings 23-20 over (2) 49ers. Over the course of NFL history, these two teams have faced each other six times in the postseason, with the 49ers winning five of those, but the Vikings finally get their revenge. In the NFL's ultimate chess match, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores devises a game plan that slows down Kyle Shanahan's offense just enough for Minnesota to pull out the win.

Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium

• (1) Bills 26-21 over (1) Vikings. If this Super Bowl happens, there would likely be flaming folding tables all over Los Angeles with Bills Mafia invading the city, and you'd almost certainly hear a Vikings' SKOL chant every time you went outside during Super Bowl week. These two teams have combined for the most Super Bowl appearances without a win in NFL history: The Bills and Vikings are both 0-4, so something would have to give. One of these championship-starved fan bases would finally get to see their team win a Super Bowl, and the other one would have to deal with some heartbreak, which would be kind of fitting since the Super Bowl is being played on Valentine's Day this year. In the end, Josh Allen leads the Bills to their first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history. 

We've been doing a projection every week since the start of the season, and here's a look at the projected Super Bowl each week. 

• Preseason prediction: Rams over Ravens
• After Week 1: Seahawks over Ravens
• After Week 2: Seahawks over Chiefs
• After Week 3: Chiefs over Vikings 
• After Week 4: Seahawks over Chiefs
• After Week 5: 49ers over Chiefs
• After Week 6: Chiefs over 49ers
• After Week 7: Bills over Vikings

As you can see, this is the first time all season that the Bills have been projected to win the Super Bowl. According to our model, the Bills have a 12.97% chance of winning it all, with the Vikings sitting right behind them at 11.15%. There are only three other teams higher than 8%. That's the Chiefs (9.5%), 49ers (8.4%) and Jaguars (8.3%).