The NFL season reaches its unofficial midway point this weekend, and teams hoping to be relevant for the final two months of the regular season are seeing their margin for error shrink and shrink exponentially.

No division is better -- or more competitive -- than the NFC North, where the team in last, the 5-3 Packers, would be in the playoffs if they started today. The NFC North has a legitimate shot to be the first division in the current conference alignment to put four teams in the playoffs, but given how tough the in-division games will be, none of them can afford many slip-ups outside the division. Green Bay has done a terrific job rallying from an uninspiring 1-2 start to put themselves in a position to be relevant. But, as we'll see, that's still a precarious position.

Using SportsLine's projections, we take a look at what's on the line for the five most important games of the weekend and how their results will impact the playoff picture.

1. Packers at Patriots

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)

After unsteady starts from both teams, the Patriots and Packers would both be in the playoffs if they started today ...  but only as the No. 7 seeds in their respective divisions.

But the playoffs don't start today. In fact, we're only just now reaching the halfway point of the regular season. That makes this showdown between big-play quarterbacks Jordan Love and Drake Maye a huge one. After a relatively easy stretch, the Patriots have a tough stretch -- Packers, at Lions, at Chargers, Bills, Vikings, at Chiefs -- upcoming. The Packers, meanwhile, go at Patriots, Vikings, at Rams.

One of these teams will enter the second half of the season feeling really good. The other? Not so much.

2. Rams at Commanders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)

It's not quite an elimination game -- we're still way too early for that -- but the 4-4 Rams dropping below .500 would be a massive blow for the preseason Super Bowl favorites. Los Angeles has won two straight and should make it three in a row. There just isn't enough room for error left for the Rams, especially when they're favored.

The Commanders, meanwhile, are just kind of sticking around in the lowly NFC East. A Week 10 game against the Giants will be crucial, but if they can spring an upset before that, it'd be a nice boost for their postseason hopes.

3. Buccaneers at Bears

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC (Stream: fubo, try for free)

For the third straight week, the Bears are on primetime, and if it goes half as well as Monday night's statement blowout of the Seahawks did, Chicago will win its fourth straight and move to 7-2.

But let's not just hand this one to Caleb Williams and co. The Buccaneers have won three of four after a nightmarish 0-4 start and now look like a potential frontrunner in the NFC South. Tampa Bay's turnaround has been fueled by a dominant running game and terrific defense.

Both of these teams are in competitive division races, but for very different reasons. The NFC North is historically great. The NFC South is awful. That means big implications.

4. Cardinals at Seahawks

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: fubo, try for free)

Similar to the Rams, the Seahawks (also 4-4) wouldn't be completely out of it with a loss, but it would be a devastating early blow. The reigning champs simply have to take care of business in games like these. That's what happens when you have a slow start: Your back is starting to get close to the wall by November.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are looking to play spoiler, and if we learned anything from last week's Gardner Minshew-led comeback win over the Cowboys, it's that Arizona is more than happy to do just that. Seattle's defense, though, is an entirely different beast.

5. Bengals at Falcons (in Spain)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network (Stream: fubo, try for free)

The NFL's international games continue after a one-week break, and it's a big chance for both teams. The Bengals can keep up in the AFC North, while the Falcons can get back into the win column and stay right in the thick of the NFC South race. Considering both the Buccaneers (at Bears) and the Panthers (vs. Broncos) both have tough tasks, the Falcons going abroad and coming back with a win would be a huge result.