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2026 Tennessee football: Updated record projection after Week 7

No. 14 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) defeated No. 7 Alabama (5-2, 3-2 SEC), 26-10, at Neyland Stadium in Week 7.

Tennessee's home schedule in 2026 consists of games against Furman (W, 56-9), Kennesaw State (W, 42-9), Texas (L, 20-17), Auburn (W, 24-14), Alabama (W, 26-10), Kentucky and LSU, while playing at Georgia Tech (W, 45-24), Arkansas (W, 24-17), South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.

Below is Tennessee's 2026 football schedule, along with updated game-by-game win percentage chances from ESPN's Matchup Predictor after Week 7. The Vols' updated strength of schedule and record projection are also listed below.

2026 Week 7 - Tennessee football updated win percentage chances each game

Sept. 5

Furman (Knoxville, Tennessee)

W, 56-9

Sept. 12

Georgia Tech (Atlanta, Georgia)

W, 45-24

Sept. 19

Kennesaw State (Knoxville, Tennessee)

W, 42-9

Sept. 26

Texas (Knoxville, Tennessee)

L, 20-17

Oct. 3

Auburn (Knoxville, Tennessee)

W, 24-14

Oct. 10

Arkansas (Fayetteville, Arkansas)

W, 24-17

Oct. 17

Alabama (Knoxville, Tennessee)

W, 26-10

Oct. 24

South Carolina (Columbia, South Carolina)

59.9%

Oct. 31

Open date

Nov. 7

Kentucky (Knoxville, Tennessee)

71.0%

Nov. 14

Texas A&M (College Station, Texas)

55.8%

Nov. 21

LSU (Knoxville, Tennessee)

42.3%

Nov. 28

Vanderbilt (Nashville, Tennessee)

87.4%

Tennessee football's strength of schedule, record projection after Week 7

Following Week 7, Tennessee is up one spot to No. 12 overall in ESPN's FPI rankings. The Vols are projected to finish their regular season with a 9.2-3.0 record after a 7.3-4.7 preseason record projection.

Tennessee also has a 10.3% chance to win the SEC, 45.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 1.7% chance to win a national title after Week 7.

Tennessee has the 23rd-hardest strength of schedule nationally and the 18th-hardest remaining strength of schedule. The Vols are ranked No. 19 nationally for game control and No. 7 for strength of record. Strength of record rankings reflect a chance that an average top 25 team would have a team's record or better, given the schedule.

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