It would have been easy, understandable even, for Bournemouth fans to feel down and worried. Their revered head coach, Andoni Iraola, had left in the summer and his replacement, Marco Rose, had not got off to a great start. Three defeats and three draws was all they had to show from their first six league matches, and whispers about Rose’s future had begun in the media.

But Bournemouth fans know it can take a while for new ideas and methods to yield positive results. Iraola didn’t win any of his first nine Premier League games in charge of the club and he ended up having a remarkable impact.

Still, the outlook wasn’t great after Bournemouth were hammered 5-1 by Chelsea. But Rose maintained his level-headedness. He had been adamant until that point that Bournemouth’s performances had been better than results suggested. “It’s about results at this level. But performance-wise, I see a lot of good things,” he said.

Rose was much less understanding after the hammering at Stamford Bridge, but again there were still reasons to think the result was harsh. Chelsea’s five goals came from only 1.1 expected goals (xG). The standard of their finishing was incredibly high at times, with Jordan Henderson scoring twice from outside the box (one a free-kick) and João Pedro rifling emphatically into the roof of the net from a Pedro Neto cut-back. And Morgan Rogers’ effort was helped by a deflection. Bournemouth created opportunities, with a greater xG total (1.38) than their hosts, but ended up on the end of a hiding.

The one-sided result was something of a novelty, but the overriding sense that Bournemouth had been unlucky was familiar. Not much had gone their way in the five matches before that. In their defeat at Manchester City on the opening weekend, Bournemouth led 1-0 until the 84th minute, before losing 2-1.

In their second match of the season, they were denied by a 90th-minute equaliser in a 1-1 draw with Everton. “As a coach, you evaluate the performance as well as the result, and in most phases of the game it was really good,” Rose said. “I don’t want to blame anyone because I saw so many positive things.” Next up, an 88th-minute leveller rescued Newcastle a 2-2 draw from 2-0 down at St James’ Park. And in their fourth match of the season, Bournemouth led twice against Brentford but had to settle for a 2-2 draw after individual errors from Adrien Truffert and Djordje Petrovic.

Rose continued to focus on the positives. There was an acceptance that results needed to catch up eventually, though he liked a lot of what he was watching. “I’m really happy with the confidence the lads came here today to take the three points,” he said after the Newcastle draw. Even after the loss to Liverpool left them with only three points from a possible 15, Rose cut an optimistic figure, saying: “We played a good game against Liverpool. They had some days more to recover, and I think we looked fit, even at the end. We were the team that went for a goal.”

Bournemouth won the “xG battle” four times in their first six matches. That obviously doesn’t count for much in real terms, but it shows that they were creating more high-value opportunities than their opponents. Their position of 18th in the table was not a clear reflection of their performances. “We can see the table. Now it’s up to us to prove we can handle the situation,” Rose challenged his players after the Chelsea loss.

We can use expected points (xPts) to support the idea that Bournemouth’s position was false. Our xPts model uses xG data from each match to calculate how games “deserved” to finish based on the quality and quantity of chances at each end. Although Bournemouth were in the relegation zone with three points, their 8.4 xPts put them comfortably in mid-table.

Rose’s optimistic appraisals should not be overlooked as standard post-match managerial guff either. There’s an argument his positivity and clarity played a big role in helping the Bournemouth players appreciate they were on the right track even when results were underwhelming. The worry was the team could lose confidence and sink, but hindsight suggests the coach did well to mitigate such a threat.

Since the defeat to Chelsea, Bournemouth have played six and won six in all competitions. They have scored 16 goals from 16.4 xG and allowed their opponents chances worth only 0.81 xG on average – and, crucially, Henderson’s free-kick at Stamford Bridge was the last goal they conceded. They have beaten Sturm Graz and Milan in the Europa League, Aston Villa in the League Cup, and Sunderland, Manchester United and Leeds in the Premier League.

Their recent fixtures have been slightly kinder given they played City, Newcastle, Liverpool and Chelsea – three of which were away – during their first six Premier League outings. But Milan and Leeds both made decent starts to the season, Villa have been resurgent of late, and wins at Old Trafford can never be taken for granted.

The outlook for Bournemouth is now considerably different in the Premier League. Those three wins have lifted them to eighth in the table, and because their recent victories have been so comprehensive, they’ve absolutely shot up the xPts table as well. Only Arsenal (18.2), Man City (17.1) and Nottingham Forest (15.5) can better Bournemouth’s 15.4 xPts over the full season to date.

It’s been an impressive transformation but Rose isn’t trying to take the credit. “I would love to say I’m a magician and I changed some good stuff, but sometimes it’s just about getting this kind of experience, and then if you react well that’s always the most important thing,” he mused before the Leeds win. “You can make mistakes – you can lose, you can have a bad day – but the reaction is the most important thing, and I think we showed a good reaction. We didn’t lack much, and now we just have the last ​5​% in everything.”

Evanilson finding some form in front of goal has helped, with the Brazilian scoring in each of his past four league outings, his four goals coming from 2.8 xG. Bournemouth have also limited their opposition’s flow of high-quality chances. And their upcoming fixture list looks kind.

Over the next five matches, only Coventry and Aston Villa have more straightforward schedules than Bournemouth according to our rankings. Their climb could yet continue.

Bournemouth’s surge up the table shows how quickly a club’s fortunes can change, and it’s evidence of how patience can be rewarded when it might be easier to panic. Rose may not feel as though he has changed much, but ensuring his team retained belief when heads might have dropped is as valuable as any tactical alteration.