The Jacksonville Jaguars came into Sunday at 4-1, leading the AFC South with a three-game winning streak. They left Wembley Stadium with a 34-31 loss to the Houston Texans after Ka’imi Fairbairn kicked a 49-yard field goal as time expired, less than two minutes after Cam Little’s 60-yarder had tied the game.

But one analyst thought the game turned on calls made before Fairbairn lined up.

Two First-Quarter Fourth Downs Open Analyst’s Case

“Liam Coen’s decision-making cost them the game,” Pro Football Network analyst Ben Rolfe said on Sunday. He faulted the Jaguars’ head coach for passing on two long field goals in the first quarter and then kicking one late, when he believed going for it was the better play.

“Twice in the first quarter, the Jaguars turned down opportunities for Little to kick,” Rolfe added. By his account, Jacksonville punted instead of trying a 60-yarder. On the next series, it went for it on fourth-and-3 instead of trying from 55 yards. That attempt failed, and the Jaguars turned the ball over on downs in Texans territory.

Little had made three field goals of 50 yards or more this season before Sunday. He hit a 55-yarder and a 54-yarder at Cincinnati in Week 4, and a 57-yarder as time expired to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in London in Week 5. His 60-yarder against Houston made it four.

Rolfe also cited the Jaguars’ fourth-down record coming into the game. He said they had gone for it four times this season, twice on fourth-and-5 and twice on fourth-and-1, and converted half of them. All four came against the Eagles.

According to the team’s website, the Jaguars, who rank sixth on PFN’s Offense Impact Metric, were the only NFL team that had not tried a fourth-down conversion in the first four games, and both of their misses against Philadelphia came inside the Eagles’ 5-yard line. The failed fourth-and-3 was Jacksonville’s only fourth-down try Sunday.

The Tying Kick Ben Rolfe Would Have Passed Up

Travis Hunter set up the late decision. On Houston’s next possession after his 7-yard touchdown catch cut the Texans’ lead to 31-28, he intercepted Stroud in the end zone with 3:59 left.

The Jaguars’ drive stalled, and just after the two-minute warning, Coen sent Little out on fourth-and-4 instead of keeping the offense on the field. The kick was good with 1:55 left.

Rolfe argued that was the wrong call: “They then chose to kick a field goal when going for it had the higher win probability, especially when they still had the three timeouts to try and stop the Texans, who would likely have played more conservatively in that scenario, up three.”

That concern was reinforced by how efficiently Houston had moved the ball leading up to the final possession. Excluding penalties, the Texans had gained 316 yards on 43 plays over their previous six drives, an average of 7.35 yards per play. Five of those six possessions produced either a touchdown or a field goal, and Houston had converted twice on third down during its previous drive.

Previous six drives (not including penalties):

• 7 plays, 57 yards — FG (8.1 YPP)

• 3 plays, 51 yards — TD (17.0 YPP)

• 11 plays, 65 yards — TD (5.9 YPP)

• 5 plays, 19 yards — punt (3.8 YPP)

• 5 plays, 46 yards — TD (9.2 YPP)

• 12 plays, 78 yards — INT (6.5 YPP)

As he saw it, kicking handed the ball back to the Texans with nearly two minutes to get into field-goal range, which is how the game ended. He did add a caveat.

“While analytics in a vacuum are not the be-all and end-all, in a game with 59 points having been scored at the time, converting on a fourth and four felt like the right play in the moment.”

The Jaguars also made mistakes that had nothing to do with fourth down. Early in the second quarter, a holding penalty on tight end Brenton Strange wiped out an apparent Bhayshul Tuten touchdown, and Trevor Lawrence threw an interception in the end zone to Calen Bullock two plays later.

In the third quarter, Jacksonville was flagged for too many men on the field on a Houston punt. That kept alive the drive that ended in Jaylin Noel’s 13-yard touchdown catch, which put the Texans up 24-14.

The loss still leaves the Jaguars first in the AFC South at 4-2, with a bye before they host the Indianapolis Colts on Nov. 1. If Coen faces another fourth down at the edge of Little’s range, his next call may show whether Sunday changed his thinking.