ESPN analyst Greg McElroy expects No. 11 Tennessee to stumble in Columbia one week after its signature win over Alabama, picking South Carolina to hand the Volunteers their second loss of the 2026 season.

McElroy picked the Gamecocks to win 27-24 in Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET game at Williams-Brice Stadium, calling it “a potential flat spot for the Volunteers,” during his Always College Football podcast. South Carolina is coming off a bye after its 38-19 win at then-No. 16 Florida.

Why does McElroy favor South Carolina?

Tennessee (6-1) beat Alabama 26-10 behind DeSean Bishop’s 159 rushing yards, and McElroy doubts the Vols can match that emotional peak on the road a week later.

“Tennessee just went to war last week against Alabama. Looked amazing doing it. But we’ve seen teams elevate and then come back to earth the following week,” McElroy said. “And I think that could happen for Tennessee right here because Fuller and Sellers, they’re going to get yards when that first defender misses.”

Running back Matt Fuller and quarterback LaNorris Sellers power an offense built on breaking tackles, and McElroy sees that as a direct threat to a Tennessee defense that hasn’t consistently finished plays at first contact.

“South Carolina’s offense, their strength is running through contact. They average almost four yards after contact per carry. That’s top three in college football,” McElroy said. “They are 105th in yards after contact allowed at just under three yards after contact allowed. That’s a lot.”

Sellers accounted for five touchdowns in the win at Florida. Tennessee coach Josh Heupel also showed his players a photo Monday from the Vols’ 63-38 loss in their last trip to Williams-Brice Stadium in 2022, and he described South Carolina as a team that’s “playing really well.”

George MacIntyre should start for Tennessee

Heupel declined to name a starter for the third straight week. MacIntyre is 2-0 as a starter and has led Tennessee to three straight wins since replacing Faizon Brandon, the freshman who started the first five games before injuring his right shoulder against Texas on Sept. 26.

“George has played smart and efficient,” Heupel said Monday.

McElroy wants the sophomore under center regardless of Brandon’s health.

“Do I think he’s hurt? Yeah, I do. I think the right shoulder’s a problem, but I don’t know if he’s the best option for Tennessee going forward right now,” McElroy said.

He pointed to sacks as the deciding difference between the two. “Brandon, he’s taken 15 sacks on 139 dropbacks. MacIntyre is not putting them in difficult spots. He’s taken just three on 84.”

McElroy also argued Tennessee doesn’t need its quarterback to carry the offense. “Heupel’s teams are 42-4 when they throw it fewer than 30 times,” he said. “So, his quarterback’s job is don’t mess it up, make good decisions, get the ball out.”

How can Tennessee’s defense swing it?

McElroy called Tennessee’s defensive line “elite” and singled out Xavier Gilliam, the Montgomery Village, Maryland, native who transferred from Penn State this offseason. “I think he’s the best defensive tackle in the sport that I’ve seen so far this year,” McElroy said.

Edge rusher Tyree Weathersby carries a specific assignment against Sellers. “He’s got six and a half sacks. His job is to kind of keep LaNorris Sellers in the pocket,” McElroy said.

The sack battle could decide it. South Carolina coach Shane Beamer, who sits on the latest college football coaching hot seat index, has a losing history when opponents win that category.

“Beamer’s teams are 10-24 when they lose the sack margin. Heupel’s teams are 49-6 when they have three or more sacks in the ballgame,” McElroy said. “Well, the good news for Tennessee, they’re averaging more than four a game right now.”

He still expects a one-score finish. “Tennessee’s defense, they’re amazing. Sixth in points per drive allowed. They’re going to make this thing super tight,” McElroy said. “But I just lean toward the Gamecocks in this game.”

Tennessee has an open date on Oct. 31 after the trip to Columbia, while South Carolina visits Oklahoma that day.