The Indianapolis Colts dismissed general manager Chris Ballard one day after losing 26-20 to the previously winless Tennessee Titans. The Colts dropped to 2-4 with the loss.

Ballard is the first head coach or front office executive to be fired during the 2026 NFL season. His nearly 10-year tenure as Colts general manager was hindered by an inability to find a long-term solution at quarterback after Andrew Luck's surprising retirement shortly before the 2019 regular season started. 

The Colts haven't made the playoffs since going 11-5 in 2020 with a 39-year-old Philip Rivers, who signed a one-year, $25 million deal in free agency. Rivers retired following a 27-24 wild-card playoff game loss to the Buffalo Bills, who lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. 

There's one bold move Ballard could have made in 2021 that would have ended the revolving door at quarterback that has plagued the Colts and changed the franchise's trajectory. The Detroit Lions were accommodating Matthew Stafford's trade request. The Colts were on Stafford's short list of teams, along with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. Stafford mentioned during a March 2025 episode of Jason and Travis Kelce's "New Heights" podcast that he searched for houses in Indianapolis on Zillow before his trade to the Rams. 

The Lions received a 2022 first-round pick, a 2023 first-round pick, a 2021 third-round pick and Jared Goff, who was thought to be a throw-in "bridge quarterback" because of his hefty contract, from the Rams for Stafford. After a rocky start in Detroit, Goff has proven to be the answer at quarterback, earning a four-year, $212 million contract extension, averaging $53 million per year in 2024. A Ballard offer the Lions couldn't refuse would probably have been somewhere between the actual Stafford acquisition cost and the two quarterback trades made the following year, in 2022, for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.

What would it have taken for the Colts to land Stafford?

The Seattle Seahawks dealt Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick to the Denver Broncos for multiple players (tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock), 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, 2022 and 2023 second-round picks, and a 2022 fifth-round pick in March 2022. The Washington Commanders reportedly offered the Seahawks three first-round picks, but Wilson's no-trade clause, which he waived for the Broncos, gave him control over his destination.

Watson's trade from the Houston Texans to the Cleveland Browns followed shortly thereafter. The Browns received Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick for 2022, 2023, and 2024 first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick.

Perhaps, a trade based around Ballard giving up 2021 (21st overall), 2022 and 2023 first-round picks for Stafford would have gotten the deal done. The Rams didn't have a 2021 first-round pick because of a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars for cornerback Jalen Ramsey during the middle of the 2020 season.

Ballard subsequently demonstrated he could take big swings in an attempt to improve the Colts' roster. At last year's trade deadline, Ballard went all in on the 2025 season when the Colts were 7-2 by obtaining All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets for a 2026 first-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell. 

That type of aggressiveness by Ballard in 2021 to stabilize the most important position on a football team, quarterback, would have prevented the failed Carson Wentz experiment. Wentz was acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick that became a 2022 first-round pick because his 2021 season offensive playtime reached 75%. He was reunited with Frank Reich, who coached the Colts from 2018 until nine games into the 2022 season. Reich was Wentz's offensive coordinator for Wentz's first two years in the NFL with the Eagles, 2016 and 2017.

The salary cap wouldn't have been an impediment to getting Stafford. He had two years remaining on his $43 million contract, earning $20 million in 2021 and $23 million in 2022. Wentz had four years for $98.4 million left on his deal before reworking his contract, where $5 million of his $25.4 million in 2021 compensation was moved to 2022 for additional contract security.

The reunion was short-lived. Wentz's poor play down the stretch in 2021, particularly during the regular season finale against the 2-14 Jaguars, when the Colts controlled their own playoff destiny but failed to secure a postseason berth, led to his departure. Colts owner the late Jim Irsay called acquiring Wentz a mistake shortly after he was dealt along with a 2022 second round pick (47th overall) and a 2022 seventh round pick to the Commanders for a 2022 second round pick (42nd overall), a 2022 third round pick and a conditional 2023 third round pick in March 2022. The 2023 selection didn't upgrade to a 2023 second-round pick since Wentz didn't take at least 70% of Washington's offensive snaps in 2022.

An aging Matt Ryan was acquired in March of 2022 for a third-round pick. The Colts anticipated Ryan being the quarterback for two years, as his contract was restructured with $12 million of his 2023 salary becoming fully guaranteed. Father Time caught up to a then 37-year-old Ryan in 2022. Instead of contending for a playoff berth, the Colts finished 4-12-1 in 2022. Ryan was released in March 2023. He made $36.7 million for his one-year stint in Indianapolis.

Reaching for Anthony Richardson with 2023's fourth overall pick wouldn't have occurred either. Richardson was a boom-or-bust quarterback prospect with a low floor and a high ceiling. The Colts were enticed by his great arm strength and tremendous athleticism, overlooking his raw, inexperienced nature. Richardson had 13 starts in his three years at Florida.

The Colts hedged their bet on Richardson by signing Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million contract worth up to $17 million through incentives in March 2025. Going with Jones, who was benched by the New York Giants 10 games into the 2024 season before his request for a release was granted, at quarterback in 2025 was initially more of an indictment of Richardson than anything else.

Jones was having a surprising career resurrection when he tore his right Achilles late in the 2025 season. A 7-1 start turned into a stunning collapse where the Colts finished with an 8-9 record. 

Jones was given the seldom-used transition tag for $37.8 million before quickly signing a two-year, $ 88 million contract worth up to $100 million through incentives, with $60 million in guarantees, of which $49.49 million was fully guaranteed at signing in March. He has struggled so much this season that a benching isn't out of the question.

Why Stafford would have made the Colts a contender 

Stafford paid immediate dividends for the Rams. After going 10-6 and being eliminated in the divisional playoffs in 2020, the Rams won Super Bowl LVI. Stafford arguably had the best season of his career to that point. He completed 67.2% of his passes for 4,886 yards with 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions to post a 102.9 passer rating. Stafford finished in the NFL's top 10 for touchdown passes, passing yards, passer rating, and completion percentage, ranking second, third, sixth and 10th, respectively. More importantly, Stafford elevated his play in the postseason. Stafford's 2021 season was subsequently topped in 2025 when he was named NFL MVP.

There's no guarantee the Colts would have duplicated the Rams' success with Stafford in 2021. The Colts surely would have made the playoffs with the upgrade at quarterback and challenged the Titans, who were 12-5 in 2021, for the AFC South crown. After all, the Colts went 9-8 with Wentz and were 11-5 in 2020. It's conceivable that the two-game win regression from 2020 could have resulted in no drop off in wins or at least a one-game win increase with Stafford at quarterback. 

The 2021 Colts had a strong offensive line anchored by perennial All-Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson. Running back Jonathan Taylor easily was the league's best running back, winning the rushing title by 552 yards while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The 2021 first team All-Pro led the NFL with 2,171 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards), 1,811 rushing yards, 20 total touchdowns and 18 rushing touchdowns. The Colts had a good defense featuring All-Pros DeForest Buckner and Shaquille Leonard respectively at defensive tackle and off-ball linebacker.

Presumably, Stafford would have gotten a deal comparable to the four-year, $160 million extension he signed in 2022 with the Colts. Quite frankly, Stafford didn't fully exploit his substantial contract leverage, considering the Rams had just won the Super Bowl. Instead, he made a conscious decision to leave money on the table in a team-friendly deal that tied him with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott as the league's fourth-highest-paid player upon signing at $40 million per year. This led to a somewhat contentious relationship with the Rams due to Stafford's unhappiness with his contract.

Nonetheless, Stafford should have given the Colts an extended window as a contending team. Stafford has consistently performed as a top-10 quarterback at worst since joining the Rams, and at an elite level for extended periods. The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC still would have gone through the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. NFL MVPs Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who have yet to get to the Super Bowl with the Bills and Baltimore Ravens would have also been standing in the Colts' way. Ultimately, Ballard's ability to find talent while consistently being near the back of the NFL Draft and in free agency would have determined the Colts' success. Undoubtedly, the Colts wouldn't have gone 38-46-1 over the 2021 through 2025 seasons without any playoff appearances if Stafford had been the quarterback.