The USA Eagles kick off their World Cup campaign in just under one year. On 2 October, Scott Lawrence’s men take on France in their opening match in Melbourne. After that they will face Samoa in Perth, before finishing their pool stage against Japan in Adelaide.

Having missed the 2023 edition of rugby’s global showpiece, the Eagles will be keen to make a good impression on the global stage in 2027. The USA’s summer results were strong, with victories over Portugal, Zimbabwe, and Spain in July, but after faltering in the Pacific Nations Cup against neighbours Canada and Rugby World Cup opponents Japan they will be looking for improved performances against Hong Kong, Romania and Georgia as they round out 2026.

While the Eagles’ players will no doubt be fully focused on their World Rugby Nations Cup tests in November, Lawrence and his staff will have one eye on how their pool stage opponents, France and Japan, are performing in the Nations Championship.

France

Les Bleus began their campaign in Christchurch, where they were outlasted by Dave Rennie’s All Blacks. The game was neck and neck throughout, and without their starting pack, talisman Antoine Dupont, or speedster Louis Bielle-Biarrey, France was within one score of beating the All Blacks at home. They had more carries, better goal kicking and more territory than New Zealand, and in defense they had a better tackle percentage and more turnovers.

Fabien Galthie’s men recovered against Australia, defeating their hosts 42 – 26 thanks to some thrilling counterattacking rugby and smart kicking. Les Bleus once again conceded possession to the opposition and still had the upper hand in the territorial battle. They also made far more meters on fewer carries, busting through the Australian line and beating more defenders than the Wallabies.

France ran out big winners against Japan, beating the Brave Blossoms by almost 30 points, despite having fewer carries and gaining few meters than their opponents. Once again Galthie’s men started fast, scoring in the first minute and their attacking play through Lucu, Jalibert and Ntamack was relentless.

Under their new selection policy agreed with the Top 14, no player is allowed to play more than 9 of Les Bleus’ 12 international tests this season, which means French players will be fresher going into the World Cup and more players will have had meaningful minutes at the highest level.

Despite their consistent rotation, France remain one of the best sides in the world, particularly at counterattacking and attacking kicking. They start fast and don’t need possession to create a meaningful territorial advantage. The French scrum remains solid, but ther lineouts and rucks remain a work in progress and can be targeted and their defense, although strong, their defense remains a question mark since the departure of Shaun Edwards.

Japan

The Brave Blossoms started their Nations Championship campaign well, defeating Italy 27 – 10 in Tokyo. Fullback Takuro Matsunaga led the way with a try, two penalty goals and a hat-trick of conversions. Their attacking play was supplemented by standout Hurricanes lock Warner Dearns, who added a try of his own and helped the Japanese line-out steal two Italian throws.

Japan failed to back up their opening weekend win, falling to Ireland 36 – 20 in Australia. Once again they netted fewer meters and carries than the opposition, but this time they also sacrificed territory and were forced to try and run through the speedy Irish defense or kick over it.

As previously stated, in their final Southern Hemisphere Series match, they were eviscerated by a rampant France side 42 – 15. Trailing by seven points after just one minute, the Brave Blossoms put in their best effort to recover, but were overwhelmed by what many would consider a French B team.

While the Brave Blossoms remain a speedy attacking outfit, they are no longer the 2015 or 2019 version that shocked the world. They still lack the brawn to dominate at set pieces or defense and must rely on structured attacking play and smart kicking that net them territory and put them in striking distance.

With matches against Wales, England and Scotland to come in November, Japan has time to iron out these issues before next year’s World Cup and stamp their place as second favourites in Pool E.

What is Success at the Rugby World Cup for the Eagles?

Against France, no one will expect much from the Eagles’. Lawrence’s men will have to play a near perfect game to net a losing bonus point. Worryingly, Les Bleus’ B side have shown they are capable of putting up over 40 points against some of the best sides in the world.

The opening match for the USA feels like one step too far during this World Cup cycle, but it will serve as a measuring stick for where they want to be when the World Cup hits American soil in 2031.

The Eagles will be targeting victories over Samoa and Japan as they look to advance from the pool stage for the first time. A win over Samoa would set up a “win and you’re in” final pool stage match in Adelaide against the Brave Blossoms.

However, the USA is winless against Japan in their last six matches and were overrun by the Brave Blossoms 63 – 14 earlier this year. The Eagles will have to make up that gap, and quickly, if they are to beat Eddie Jones’ men in Adelaide. They will also have to hope that Jones, one of rugby’s great tacticians, doesn’t have an extra trick up his sleeve come World Cup time.

With the next generation of American players, like Stade Francais’s Jack Iscaro and sevens-fifteens combo package Noah Brown, excelling at club level, Eagles fans will be waiting to see if they can take the next step and advance out of the pool. Second place behind France is the hope, although realistic fans will know that Japan and Samoa will still be tough outings for the Eagles.