One way or the other, baseball will have a first-time World Series champion this season. The Milwaukee Brewers (established in 1970) and Tampa Bay Rays (established in 1998) will meet in this year's Fall Classic, and one of them will win their first title. The Brewers have been to the World Series once before (1982). This is the third pennant for the Rays (also 2008 and 2020).

"2020 was as special as any season I've been a part of," Rays manager Kevin Cash said following Tampa's ALCS Game 6 win over the Cleveland Guardians. "But saying that, we didn't have 40,000 people behind us [during COVID]. Excited to see what those 40,000 people can bring on Games 3, 4 and 5, for sure."

This year, the teams with the best record in each league will meet in the World Series. In baseball, though, the best team doesn't always win a short postseason series, and sometimes those short series can be decided on a fortunate bounce, a fortunate umpire's call, or a role player having the best week of his life. It's baseball. Randomness will always play its part.

Every edge, no matter how small it may seem, could swing a series as well, and this World Series is no different. The Brewers and Rays will be hailed as old-school teams given their contact-heavy approaches, but they are two of the most analytical-inclined clubs in the sport. They each have an army of brilliant folks looking for advantages on the margins.

Here now are three World Series X-factors that could decide a game, decide the series, or wind up not mattering in the slightest.

2026 World Series predictions: Expert picks for Brewers vs. Rays with MLB's Fall Classic set

Mike Axisa

1. The battle of the infield defenses

If you like bunt hits, sacrifice bunts, and infield hits, this is the World Series matchup for you. The Brewers and Rays were baseball's two best teams at what we'll call small ball tactics during the regular season.

Rays speedster Chandler Simpson led baseball with 42 infield hits, 11 more than any other player. Only four players had at least 10 bunt hits during the regular season: Brewers infielder David Hamilton (15), Simpson (14), and fellow Rays Cedric Mullins (12) and Taylor Walls (11). There will be a great deal of "put the ball on the ground and run like crazy" in this World Series.

That means infield defense will be at a premium, and that doesn't always mean getting the out. Good infield defense also includes knowing when you can't get an out; sometimes the proper play is holding onto the ball and not trying to force things with a hurried throw. That's when you make the situation worse, when you turn an infield single into a double or even a triple with a bad decision.

Here are the numbers on Milwaukee's and Tampa's infield defenses:

That is quite the discrepancy between DRS and OAA for the Rays! Walls (+21 DRS but -3 OAA) and Junior Caminero (+5 DRS and -10 OAA) account for much of that. The eye test agrees with DRS for Walls. He's a terrific shortstop. Caminero was at -14 OAA in April and May, and +4 OAA thereafter. It's the second straight season he started poorly in the field before settling in.

Sometimes the simplest stats are the best and batting average on ground balls tells the story here. The Rays allowed an MLB-low .213 average on grounders this year. The Brewers were fourth at .227. Both were way below the .242 MLB average. After the trade deadline, they were basically tied at .226 and .228. Those post-deadline rosters are what we'll see in the World Series.

The Brewers play three shortstop-caliber defenders on the infield in second baseman Brice Turang, shortstop Cooper Pratt, and third baseman Joey Ortiz. Pratt, a rookie, has been mistake-prone this postseason, perhaps because the game sped up on him a bit. The Rays will certainly test that theory. They'll force Pratt, plus Ortiz and Turang (and Hamilton), to make plays.

The Rays have a clear defensive weak link in second baseman Richie Palacios, who was primarily an outfielder from 2022-25. He's hit so much this postseason (8 for 22 with three doubles) that he has to be in the lineup, but Palacios is not the most natural-looking second baseman, and his inexperience will show at times. Caminero, on the other hand, is better defensively than his reputation.

It is wrong to say the Brewers and Rays rely on these small ball tactics. They're more like one tool in their sheds. An important tool, but just one tool. They can beat you in other ways too. Bottom line, though: both infield defenses will be tested in the World Series. The team that converts the most outs and limits mistakes the most will have a leg up.

2. Hicks and Fortes vs. Milwaukee's running game

Given their bunting and infield hit skills, it should be no surprise the Brewers and Rays are two of the best stolen base teams in the sport. The Rays ranked second in baseball with 164 steals during the regular season. The Brewers were not far behind them with 162. They had identical 75% stolen base success rates, which was actually a bit below the 77% MLB average.

The key difference between the two teams is their stolen bases allowed. The Brewers allowed only 71 stolen bases this year, the second fewest in baseball, and their 30% caught-stealing rate was fourth highest. William Contreras is an excellent thrower behind the plate, but it's not just him. Milwaukee's pitchers are quite good at holding runners. Everyone plays a role in limiting steals.

The Rays, meanwhile, allowed 131 stolen bases during the regular season, the sixth most in baseball. Their 21% caught-stealing rate ranked 20th among the 30 teams. Trade deadline addition Liam Hicks did not help matters. Runners went 58 for 69 (85%) stealing bases against him in 2026. They went 73 for 89 (82%) against Nick Fortes, Tampa's other catcher. This ain't great:

Hicks and Fortes have below-average arms and their average-ish pop times and exchanges don't help matters. The Guardians stole the seventh-most bases during the regular season, but went only 3 for 6 during the ALCS. Credit to Hicks (2 for 4 in the ALCS) and Fortes (1 for 2) for stepping up their throwing game against a good running Guardians team during that series.

They will need to do that again in the World Series. Seven Brewers stole at least 10 bases during the regular season and four stole at least 19, including Pratt, who did not make his MLB debut until June 16. The Rays can run too. As good as Contreras is at limiting stolen bases, they'll test him. On paper, though, the stolen base game looks to be a significant advantage for Milwaukee.

3. Baker's velocity

Perhaps the single biggest difference between the Brewers and Rays is in the bullpen. Brewers manager Pat Murphy is flush with quality options, including lefty Aaron Ashby, who is a candidate to give Milwaukee three innings in a close game. Cash has had trouble bridging the gap between his starters and All-Star closer Bryan Baker this postseason. Tampa's middle relief has been dicey.

To make things a little more uncomfortable, Baker's velocity has been way down the last few weeks. He failed to crack 94 mph in two of his four ALCS appearances, and he sat closer to 92 mph some nights. This is not a great trend:

Baker's best fastball in the ALDS barely topped his regular-season average, and his best fastball in the ALCS was a full tick lower than that. It is a long season and Baker has never pitched this deep into October before. It would be understandable if he is running out of gas.

Baker is a changeup specialist and it is a great changeup, but velocity equals margin of error, and his declining fastball gives him less wiggle room. The proof is in the numbers: MLB players slugged .416 against fastballs in the 96-97 mph range during the regular season. They slugged .448 against fastballs in the 93-94 mph range. It may not seem like much, but every tick matters.

Despite the declining velocity, Baker has been fantastic this postseason. He's gone 5 for 5 in saves and allowed just one hit and two walks in seven scoreless innings. He's struck out six. The declining velocity is a red flag, though. The lower it dips -- what if Baker slips into the 92-93 mph range in the World Series? -- the better the chances for the Brewers.