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Against the Washington Commanders, opposing offenses have a 49.7% success rate on 169 plays run on first down, ranking the defense last in the NFL, according to HB Analytics. Looking for a fix to that should have been near the top of defensive coordinator Daronte Jones’ to-do list during the bye.
That percentage doesn't mean opponents picked up a new set of downs on nearly half of those plays. Success rate measures whether a play improved the offense's expected scoring outlook. A five-yard gain on first-and-10 leaves a team with plenty of options for its next call. Hold the same run to a yard or force an incompletion, and the offense has more work to do.
Situation |
Plays |
Washington's NFL Rank |
|
|---|---|---|---|
First down |
169 |
49.7% |
32nd |
Second-and-long |
57 |
29.8% |
3rd |
Third-and-long |
35 |
37.1% |
24th |
Washington has played a lot better on second-and-long in comparison. Opposing offenses have a 29.8% success rate across 57 plays in those situations, the third-lowest in the league. The Commanders also rank second in expected points added allowed on second-and-long. Those are good results for Jones to build on. Better execution on first down would give the defense more opportunities to work from that position.
The Commanders have also allowed 36 conversions on 81 third downs, or 44.4%. First down needs more attention, but Washington still has to finish possessions once it gets an offense into a long-yardage situation. It hasn't been able to do that reliably, either.
HB Analytics also has opposing offenses with a 37.1% success rate on 35 third-and-long plays against Washington, ranking the defense 24th. Its strong second-and-long results haven't carried over to third-and-long. Getting there is only part of the job.
Head coach Dan Quinn talked about that Tuesday when asked how he could help Jones get more consistent play from the defense. He started with preparation before the snap and later singled out first and second down.
“And that can mean urgency, call selection, and getting these guys' cleats in the grass to go play decisively and fast,” Quinn said. “So, that’s number one at the top of my list to make sure all the calls that we have are able to go and do that.”
Washington has time to settle on the calls it can execute consistently before it returns against Philadelphia on November 1. I’d make getting everyone set and playing fast the starting point for that plan. Jones needs his defense to win on first down more often and create the second-and-long situations it has handled well. Then Washington has to finish the possession.
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