When the votes are counted and the Ballon d'Or winner is announced in London on October 26, history suggests that Barcelona superstar Lamine Yamal has the edge over Bayern Munich's Harry Kane.

Yamal, 19, can become the youngest player in history to win the award after inspiring Barcelona to a domestic double and Spain to their second World Cup triumph.

Kane, on the other hand, is bidding to become the first English player since Michael Owen in 2001 to collect the gong after scoring an eye-watering 73 goals in 65 games between August 2025 and July 2026.

Lamine Yamal's statistical edge over Harry Kane in Ballon d'Or reckoning

While it's impossible to separate the two players following their extraordinary campaigns for club and country, history suggests that Yamal has the advantage over Kane.

As per Ask Gamblers, of all the players to win the award since the year 2000, 64 per cent were playing in La Liga, 76 per cent were forwards, and 80 per cent had won their league, the Champions League, or the World Cup that season.

From the 30 stars shortlisted for the trophy, only Barcelona's Yamal ticks all three boxes, while Kane - as a forward who has won the Bundesliga - slots into two of the three categories.

Although the award is purely dictated by a player's exceptional individual campaign, winning the biggest trophy in world football can give nominees a key advantage.

When Ousmane Dembele was crowned with the 2025 Ballon d'Or, he had led Paris Saint-Germain to their first-ever historic treble alongside scoring 35 goals and providing 16 assists across the 2024/25 campaign.

In the year before, Rodri's treble-winning campaign with Manchester City in 2023 helped him win the Ballon d'Or, but it was his role in Spain's Euro 2024 triumph over England that ultimately swayed the vote in his favour.

Similarly, when Lionel Messi finally won the World Cup with Argentina in 2022, it was impossible not to select the magician for his eighth Ballon d'Or in 2023.

That is why it wouldn't be surprising if Yamal collects this year's gong after helping end Spain's 16-year wait for a World Cup, while England were beaten in the semi-finals by Argentina.

Declan Rice backs Harry Kane to win Ballon d'Or

The opinion over who should win the Ballon d'Or is divided. Both players are neck-and-neck with the bookmakers, making it impossible to predict who will come out on top.

Speaking after Arsenal's 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich in the Champions League, in which Kane scored and assisted, Declan Rice waxed lyrical about his Three Lions teammate after his masterclass.

Explaining why he should win the award, Rice said: "I think it's his time. I think he deserves this. His whole career, the consistency he's shown, the longevity he's shown. He's getting better with age."

The Gunners midfielder, who netted the equaliser at the Allianz Arena, is spot on with his comment. Kane turned 33 in July, but he's arguably performing at the highest level he's ever shown.

"He is the clear winner. His numbers speak for themselves. The year he has had has been remarkable," Rice continued.

"When you play with him, you realise how good he is, and when you play against him, you see how much of a pain it is. He is ridiculous, such a good player, and I am lucky I can play with him, not so lucky I have to play against him."