Denny Hamlin had a chance to capitalize on Kyle Larson’s disastrous afternoon at Phoenix Raceway. Instead, a right-rear tire failure and a pit-road speeding penalty derailed the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, leaving Hamlin fourth in the standings. With the championship fight entering its final stretch, the result was another reminder that having a car capable of winning means little if the points do not follow.

Larson’s crash ended his race with a DNF, credited as 34th, after a flat right-front tire sent his Chevrolet into the outside wall. Hamlin gained 18 points on the championship leader but still trailed by 31 with three races remaining. The opening was there. Hamlin simply could not make enough of it, leaving him to face another missed chance to change the direction of his title campaign.

“It’s miserable,” Hamlin told Bob Pockrass at Talladega. “It’s pretty miserable for sure. But it’s, yeah, we can only do what we can. I certainly wish I could go back as a driver and change some things. But all we can do is look forward, and I just hope I have a shot when we leave here to where I’m feeling good about. Okay, now just go do what you need to do those last two. But you just don’t know.”

The frustration is rooted in more than one race. Larson built his advantage by finishing consistently, recording a 2.8 average finish across the first six Chase races. Hamlin, despite winning four races during the 2026 season, has struggled to turn his own speed into the points haul needed to challenge for the championship.

Phoenix showed the difference. Hamlin collected 12 stage points and ran near the front before his tire failure on Lap 221 of 312. The speeding penalty further complicated his afternoon, and he finished 28th. Larson’s DNF gave Hamlin a valuable opening, but he gained far less ground than Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, who moved ahead of him in the standings.

Bell left Phoenix just five points behind Larson, while Briscoe was 24 points back. Hamlin sat fourth, 31 points behind the leader. His position was still recoverable, but the opportunity to make a bigger move had gone. He needed to start converting such openings into results before the remaining races ran out.

His history makes another near-miss especially painful. In 2010, Hamlin entered the Homestead finale with a 15-point lead over Jimmie Johnson, only to finish 14th as Johnson secured his fifth consecutive championship. Hamlin finished second in the standings after coming so close to his first title.

The disappointment returned at Phoenix in 2025. Hamlin led 208 laps and appeared to have a genuine shot at the championship, but a late caution set up overtime, and he finished sixth. Larson went on to win the title, leaving Hamlin second once again. His career has featured race wins, strong teams, and repeated championship contention, but the defining prize has remained out of reach.

Now, Talladega offers another chance to change the story. Hamlin has won at the Alabama superspeedway, while Larson is still searching for his first Cup victory there. The drafting pack can produce a major points swing, but the risk of a multi-car wreck makes it a difficult race to control. Hamlin needs stage points and a strong finish, ideally a win that would put immediate pressure on Larson.

Martinsville and Homestead follow, leaving Hamlin little room for another lost afternoon. He must also keep Bell and Briscoe in view, since both JGR teammates are ahead of him in the standings. Larson does not need to dominate every race, but Hamlin needs to close the gap while protecting himself from another result that leaves his title hopes dependent on others.

The 2027 schedule adds another challenge, with Watkins Glen confirmed as a playoff race. The road course will fall in a critical stretch of the postseason, demanding another strong performance at a time when every point matters. It does not make 2026 Hamlin’s last chance, but it gives him another reason to make the most of the opportunity in front of him.

Hamlin needs to turn his speed into points now: gain ground at Talladega, deliver at Martinsville, and reach Homestead within striking distance. Larson has left the door open, but Hamlin’s margin for error is shrinking. Three races remain for him to change a pattern of near-misses into the championship he has chased for years.

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