Coming into the 2026 NFL season, enormous expectations awaited the Chicago Bears after their 2025 awakening on offense. Suddenly, the Bears looked very much like Super Bowl contenders, or at the very least a strong candidate to reach the NFC Championship game. But that's not all. Caleb Williams' breakout season heaped sky-high expectations on his shoulders, and any regression would be brutally punished in the media.

Well, we're one-third of the way through the season and neither the Bears nor Williams are showing any signs of slowing down. The Bears look every bit a legit Super Bowl contender, and Williams has been playing like an NFL MVP, especially after securing a bounce back Week 6 win over the Atlanta Falcons, his first game back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for three weeks.

Unfortunately, that very injury may prevent Williams from earning MVP honors no matter how well he plays. Voters tend to punish even the best quarterbacks for missing more than one game, and Williams missed three. ESPN's Benjamin Solak noted in his seven things to think about for Week 7 how Jalen Hurts had led the MVP race in 2022 by Week 14, but he missed Week 16 and 17 with an injury and MVP honors were awarded to Patrick Mahomes, instead.

That doesn't mean that Williams' MVP chances are D.O.A., however. There's still a very compelling case for the voters to make him Chicago's first NFL MVP since Walter Payton, and here's why.

The Case for Caleb Williams to be MVP

It took longer than Bears fans may have liked, but Caleb Williams is finally living up to his pre-draft projections. Through three games, he's earned a 77.5 QBR from ESPN, which is the third-best mark in the league. His 82.8 impact grade from Pro Football Network is sixth best. He's leading the league with a 72.5% completion rating, a massive improvement from last year's 58.1% mark.

The numbers paint a portrait of a strong MVP candidate, but the voters don't go on stats alone. There's a human element to the voting, and that's where things may work in Williams' favor. Let's say Williams continues to play as a Top 5 quarterback and leads the Bears to another division title. Becoming an elite quarterback for a franchise that hasn't seen one since arguably the 1940's would likely be a powerful motivator for voters.

Most importantly, the timing of Williams' injury may also benefit him in the long run. As Solak noted, Hurts' injury likely cost him an MVP award. But his injury occurred near the end of the season. Williams still has 11 games ahead of him. As aforementioned, there's a human element to the NFL Honors voting and the voters tend to lean towards more December games than what transpires in September and October.

The Case against Caleb Williams' MVP candidacy

At the end of the day, there's no getting around the fact that Williams missed three games this season due to injury. As Solak mentioned in his article for ESPN, the last time any player won the MVP award while missing more than one game in a season was Steve McNair in 2003, and he had to be the co-MVP with Peyton Manning. Even if Williams catches fire for the rest of the season, his final stats still may not compare favorably to other MVP candidates.

Another thing working against Williams, and this is fairly obvious, is the rest of the field. Brock Purdy is on pace for over 4,100 yards and 40 touchdowns, and his 83.0 QBR leads the NFL. Lamar Jackson has only missed two games, and he also is having a terrific season. Even if Williams concludes the greatest season in franchise history, he could still fall behind these other terrific quarterbacks.

An MVP award for Williams would be an incredible development for a player who, just two years ago, appeared to be the next tombstone in Chicago's graveyard of quarterbacks. But team success is first and foremost, and I don't think it would bother Bears fans if Williams is snubbed for an NFL award so long as he leads the Bears on another postseason run.